EASTERN CHAD - INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NDJAMENA 000619 SIPDIS AIDAC SIPDIS USAID/DCHA FOR MHESS, GGOTTLIEB, SBRADLEY DCHA/OFDA FOR KLUU, AFERRARA, ACONVERY, DLILLIE, AMALLEY DCHA/FFP FOR WHAMMINK, JDWORKEN USAID/AFR/EA FOR BDUNFORD NAIROBI/ECARO FOR JMYER; FFP FOR NESTES STATE FOR AF/C, AFR/WA, AF/EPS, EB, CRS, AND PRM USUN FOR TMALY BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER USEUCOM FOR USAID WANDERSON KHARTOUM/USAID FOR EKERST, JMARKS GENEVA FOR NKYLOH ROME FOR RNEWBERG, HSPANOS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PGOV PHUM SOCI PREF PREL CD SUBJECT: EASTERN CHAD - INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT UPDATE NDJAMENA 00000619 001.2 OF 004 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. Most internally displaced people (IDPs) in eastern Chad are now receiving assistance from humanitarian organizations. The numbers have stabilized at about 170,000, and due to the rains no major conflict is expected for several months. Issues faced by the humanitarian community include insecurity, the risk of creating a "pull" factor into IDP sites, the question of return and the need for a post-crisis strategy. Most NGOs would welcome the deployment of an enhanced Chadian gendarme force backed up by EU troops. End summary. ¶2. Nairobi-based USAID/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) Principal Regional Advisor (PRA) Jack Myer visited Chad July 2-16. While there he traveled in eastern Chad with USAID Field Officer Stan Stalla, visiting the towns of Abeche, Farchana, Adre, and Goz Beida. The objectives of his trip were to track the evolution of the humanitarian situation affecting IDPs and consider further funding options. ¶3. This is the first of two cables and will report on the general IDP situation, some specific issues and provide recommendations. A second cable will detail the specifics of IDP conditions. MORE IDPS IN AN OVERBURDENED AREA -------------- ¶4. Compared to the PRA's last visit, in November 2006, there have been considerable changes in eastern Chad. Firstly, the number of IDPs has risen from 70,000 to over 170,000, according to figures provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Secondly, the humanitarian community has stepped up the provision of essential humanitarian services to the IDPs, and are meeting most needs. Thirdly, there have not been any new attacks on Chadian villages in three months, according to the UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS). Finally, the rains have started, which will make road transport difficult and facilitate the spread of water-borne diseases. ¶5. Between November 2006 and April 2007, a combination of attacks by Janjaweed-like mounted raiders from Sudan, Chadian rebels and Chadian ethnic militias on Arab and non-Arab villages in eastern Chad, mostly in the area south of the Abeche-Adre road in the Dar Assongha and Dar Sila Departments, drove 100,000 Chadians from their villages, adding to the 70,000 already displaced. Most settled in sites near perceived security and essential services (such as existing Sudanese refugee camps) and/or where they have ethnic relatives. Most fled no more than 50 km from their villages, and brought a varying amount of personal items with them. ¶6. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA),the consensus figure for IDPs is about 173,000. This figure, however, has been the subject of considerable debate within the humanitarian community. UNHCR has undertaken a profiling exercise with its NGO partners InterSos and International Relief and Development (IRD),and came up with the 173,000 figure. The methodology has been challenged on the grounds that in most cases the NGOs relied on possibly biased village chiefs for population figures, and guesswork. The UN World Food Program (WFP) relies on data from its own sampling methods, often lower than what NGOs find in the sites. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is convinced the true figure is maybe around 140,000. However, in the interests of presenting a united front and aiding planners, agencies have settled on 173,000 as a consensus figure. ¶7. The 120,000 IDPs in Dar Sila are mostly living in semi-organized sites, around the refugee camps of Goz Beida and Goz Amer and the village of Dogdore. About 38,000 IDPs are in Dar Assongha, living near their relatives in sites or integrated in their villages, and in some cases, within their households. The concentration of population in areas with scarce water, pasture and firewood is creating tension with local populations and straining the environment - already strained by the presence of 220,000 Sudanese NDJAMENA 00000619 002.2 OF 004 refugees. ISSUES FACING THE HUMANITARIAN COMMUNITY -------------- ¶8. The issue of return of IDPs is the subject of considerable discussion in eastern Chad. Although there have been no attacks on villages or new displacements since mid-April, and the rains have set in, meaning there will probably be none until September, the IDPs appear to be sitting tight for the time being. However, it is the planting season for the cereal crop and many are reported to have returned to their fields to plant, staying just long enough to do so. While not a permanent return, this may boost confidence. ¶9. The IDPs themselves are categorical that they will only return home for good when there is security, which for them means the visible and permanent presence of security forces, not just in the main towns but in every village. Although the GOC has been beefing up the military presence in the east, it is not clear if these forces will be used to secure Chadian villages or confront potential rebel attacks. ¶10. The UN has just started the process of leading a planning effort for a potential return, an effort it will need to conclude well before the end of the rainy season. Humanitarian organizations, including the ICRC, eagerly await the opportunity to participate. ¶11. A major issue facing the humanitarian community is that of avoiding the creation of a "triple standard". The concern is that the 220,000 refugees are benefiting from a mature operation that mostly meets international service delivery standards. The IDPs are beginning to get access to services that approach these standards, and the local Chadians that are not displaced continue to live in the abject poverty their displaced cousins left behind. Because the environment is so delicate in eastern Chad, and natural resources (water, firewood, pasture) so scarce, the potential for conflict and jealousy is high. ¶12. The solution to this, articulately advocated by the ICRC among others, is to provide assistance where required based on need, not on movement, so that if IDPs end up near a certain village, any assistance provided benefits the IDPs and the villagers. Most organizations agree with this approach in theory, but limited resources and the imperative to raise service delivery standards to international norms continue to create assistance gaps, especially around the larger IDP sites in Dar Sila. ¶13. One of the stickiest issues for the humanitarian community is the concern that as aid agencies get organized, and the response to the humanitarian needs of the IDPs is increasingly robust, the IDPs themselves may get too comfortable in the camps. It is a fine line for the agencies to walk between the humanitarian imperative to provide basic life-sustaining assistance, and the fear of creating dependency in the IDP sites. Additionally, it is feared that as assistance standards for the IDPs improve, a "magnet" effect may come in to play whereby villagers in affected areas come to the sites claiming they were attacked when really they are trying to access some of the assistance being provided. ¶14. Insecurity is a major part of the context in eastern Chad, which suffers from a Chadian rebellion, localized ethnic violence, spillover from the Darfur rebellion, opportunistic raiding from across the border and general banditry. Since November 2006, the security situation has deteriorated, and the entire area is now on UN security Phase Four, meaning that only humanitarian activities can be undertaken and strict security measures are in place. These include using convoys of at least two vehicles on all routes, a requirement for security escorts on many routes (provided by the Chadian gendarme force that also guards the refugee camps),strict radio check procedures and frequent re-analysis of the situation by UNDSS personnel permanently stationed in Abeche. All of this adds to the costs and time required to implement programs in eastern Chad. NDJAMENA 00000619 003.2 OF 004 ¶15. Because of the risks of getting caught in crossfire or being targeted by bandits, as well as the complications associated with convoy travel, most humanitarian contacts welcome the French-led UN initiative to strengthen the Chadian gendarme force. There are some concerns that humanitarian neutrality could be compromised, but contacts point out that there is already a gendarme force providing escorts and trying to guard the refugee camps with little impact on neutrality. Some European NGOs have criticized the recent air bridges provided by French military aircraft with NFI for IDPs as blurring the line between military and humanitarian spheres, with possible negative consequences for humanitarian workers. ¶16. A concern expressed by several interlocutors is that above and beyond the need for a plan for post-rain scenarios regarding IDPs, there is little thought going into the longer-term development needs in eastern Chad. There is no UN Development Program presence in Abeche, no "early recovery" cluster, and no discussion of development issues beyond the very theoretical. USAID\OFDA RESPONSE EFFORTS -------------- ¶17. USAID/DCHA/OFDA has been funding several UN agencies and NGOs to provide assistance to IDPs in eastern Chad. They include International Relief and Development (IRD - food security),World Concern (food security, water),International Medical Corps (IMC -health, nutrition),MENTOR (health),UNHCR (non-food items - NFI), the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF - water/sanitation, health, nutrition) and OCHA (coordination). ¶18. The USAID team has been approached by two other organizations requesting funding, Concern and Save the Children US (SCF/US). Concern is proposing IDP site management in Dogdore for 27,000 IDPs, while SCF/US would like to implement protection activities for women and children in Koukou and Dogdore. Both NGOs are preparing full proposals for consideration by OFDA later this month. ¶19. OFDA is also considering funding for additional NFI, if required, as well as increased support for air logistics through Air Serv. Catholic Relief Services (CRS) has requested funding for its partner, SECADEV, to implement food security activities in parts of Dar Assongha where there are IDPs in host-villages. Both IRD and IMC have submitted proposals to continue their activities in the east. RECOMMENDATIONS -------------- ¶20. The USAID team in eastern Chad recommends that: -- OFDA consider funding Concern for site management in Dogdore, SCF/US for protection activities in Dar Sila, a second tranche for Air Serv's airlift operation, and cost extensions for IMC, CRS and IRD; -- OFDA set aside some funding for an NFI airlift if UNHCR ends up requesting more, whether because it discovers gaps or because of new IDP needs; -- USAID\OFDA place a Field Officer in Abeche on a semi-permanent basis to monitor the situation; -- the OFDA Field Officer and embassy Ndjamena continue to encourage the UN to work with the rest of the humanitarian community during the rainy season to produce a basic contingency plan for post-rains IDP scenarios, whether return, status quo, or more violence. CONCLUSION -------------- ¶21. The humanitarian situation in eastern Chad has become more complicated with the increase in internal displacement. The NDJAMENA 00000619 004.2 OF 004 positive news is that the numbers have not increased in three months, and that assistance is now being provided in a more robust manner. However, the assumption is widespread in eastern Chad that when the rains end, usually around September, a new round of hostilities will break out, especially given the level of military build up of the Chadian forces and their Sudanese rebel allies in the region. ¶22. The Chadian authorities and humanitarian community will need to simultaneously begin serious planning for a return of the IDPs once the rain stops, but also be ready for a worsening scenario involving resumed conflict. In this context, the humanitarian community would welcome the deployment of the EU backed, UN-supported, beefed-up Chadian police force to protect both the IDPs and humanitarian operations, staff and assets in the region. TAMLYN