CHADIAN TROOP BUILD-UP UNDERWAY; ALL QUIET, FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000410 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS; USEUCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL CD SU SUBJECT: CHADIAN TROOP BUILD-UP UNDERWAY; ALL QUIET, FOR NOW REF: TRIPOLI 0436 Classified By: Political/Economic Officer Rebecca S. Daley for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Government of Chad (GOC) is ready to launch a major attack against Chadian rebels if the rebels cross over from Sudan for one last offensive before the rainy season -- or if they are expelled by Sudan. Embassy sources do not put much weight in the Saudi-brokered accord between Chad and Sudan (ref A); Sudan may be willing and able to expel Chadian rebels, but it is widely believed that President Deby has agreed to allow JEM rank and file to stay in Chad. In fact, the Riyadh agreement may have hurt Deby,s relationship with Libya and possibly renewed Qaddafi's interest in supporting Chad rebels. End Summary ¶2. (SBU) On the eve of the rainy season, a significant Chadian National Army (ANT) troop build-up has been observed in preparation for a major offensive if and when Chad rebels cross over from Sudan. There have been reports of hundreds of vehicles leaving N'Djamena over the last week. The Chief of the Air Force and the Chief of Defense are currently in eastern Chad. It is believed that the President will travel to the east in the coming days to personally direct any action. ANT numbers have recently been beefed up with the integration of the (former rebel) FUC troops into the ANT. In addition, the ANT is reinforced by armed civilian militias and troops from the Sudanese rebel group Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). The ANT's logistics and firepower are the best they have ever been as a result of months of spending on arms, trucks and air assets. ¶3. (C) The Director of the National Demining Commission, Brahim Djibrine (please protect),told Emboff that he believed that Chadian rebels currently active in the east are composed of three main columns: Mahamat Nouri,s Union of Forces for Democracy and Development with 2,500-3,000 men; Al-Gennedi,s forces number 2,000-2,500; and Timan Erdimi,s Platform for Change, Unity and Democracy has 1,500-2,000. Al-Gennedi is reported to be near Tisi; Nouri between Adre and Ade. Djibrine acknowledged that the ANT greatly outnumbered the rebels but cautioned that GOC victory over the rebels assumed that "the ANT would be willing to fight." Other Embassy contacts believe that Nouri is &stronger than he has recently been,8 due in part to a string of high-level Goran desertions from the government. Nouri (and/or possibly other rebel groups) reportedly now have a pair of armored vehicles, and a number of &Chinese 17s.8 ¶4. (C) The recent Saudi-brokered agreement between Chad and Sudan surprised many here. Some believe that the French were influential in convincing Deby of the merits of signing the new accord. But having seen the 2006 Tripoli Agreement between Chad and Sudan repeatedly reaffirmed - with no tangible change on the ground - it is hard to find anyone in N'Djamena who believes that the latest rapprochement carries more weight; Sudan may be willing and able to expel Chadian rebels, but it is widely believe that President Deby will not expel JEM troops. Some Chadian areas of the Chad-Sudan border are protected almost entirely by Sudanese rebels and would be left virtually defenseless if the rebels were expelled. ¶6. (C) A number of contacts believe that, in fact, the Saudi agreement could spell trouble for Deby, as it could alienate him from Qaddafi, his major arms supplier. During a conversation with DCM on May 10, the Egyptian DCM said they were surprised at what happened in Riyadh, adding that they knew President Deby was going to Saudi Arabia, but when they heard Bashir was going too, they knew that there would be problems with Qaddafi. Concerns about potential blowback from Libya prompted President Deby to visit his northern neighbor May 8 on a "fence-mending" mission. Egyptian DCM quoted a statement from Qaddafi (issued after President Mubarak had met with him and President Deby in Tripoli) which questioned why the parties would sign the same agreement they had signed in Tripoli and called the Saudi initiative "laughable diplomacy." Another local contact informed Emboff that Qaddafi reportedly informed his inner circle in a recent meeting that it is time to "begin looking for a replacement" for President Deby. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Whether Chadian rebels are bent on a final push or are being "pushed" by the Government of Sudan out of Darfur, tensions are expected to remain high. Libyan leader Qaddafi is the wild card. If he takes umbrage at the President's trip to Saudi Arabia he has the means to reinforce the Chad NDJAMENA 00000410 002 OF 002 rebels who are at this time appear to be outnumbered and outgunned by the Chadian army. ¶7. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. WALL