JEM LEADER ON CHAD-SUDAN BORDER CONFLICT

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000385 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2009 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL CD SU SUBJECT: JEM LEADER ON CHAD-SUDAN BORDER CONFLICT REF: RIYADH 943 Classified By: Ambassador Marc Wall for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) More fighting on the Chad-Sudan border is likely as both countries move to implement the agreement reached in Riyadh to stop supporting rebel groups aimed at each other, Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) Chairman Khalil Ibrahim told the Ambassador and Poloff May 5. Khalil expected Khartoum soon to begin expelling Chadian rebels based on Sudanese territory. Once they reenter Chad, he predicted, they will be forced into clashes with Chadian army troops. ¶2. (C) Khalil anticipated that Khartoum would make this move because Riyadh expects agreements it brokers to be respected and because Khartoum takes very seriously Riyadh's wishes. As for his own plans, Khalil said he is waiting to hear from Chadian authorities, but believes he too would be forced to leave Chad as N'Djamena fulfills its end of the bargain made in Riyadh. ¶3. (C) Khalil said efforts to facilitate an understanding between President Idriss Deby Itno and Timan Erdimi, Deby's cousin and leader of one of the main Chadian rebel factions, have failed. Khalil, who has been involved in promoting these efforts in the past, noted that some of those around Erdimi were prepared to negotiate terms with Deby. Erdimi himself, he observed, is making implacable political demands. Khalil did not see much possibility of Deby and Erdimi finding common ground now. ¶4. (C) Comment: Many others here have also been anticipating a new outbreak of fighting between Chadian rebels and government forces in eastern Chad before the start of the rainy season soon. The scenario Khalil has in mind recalls what happened last September when Chad and Sudan agreed to stop supporting rebel forces on their territory. The expulsion of the Chadian rebel forces from Sudan precipitated several months of bloody clashes on the Chad-Sudan border. Sudanese rebel groups in eastern Chad -- now often referred to as "toro boro" -- appear much more numerous than at that time. The Deby regime also appears even more dependent on their support. It would be even harder now for Chadian authorities to implement any commitments to expel Sudanese forces from eastern Chad. WALL