PM CHRISTIE CALLS MAY 2 ELECTIONS; TIGHT RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000435 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR RCBUDDEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SUBJECT: PM CHRISTIE CALLS MAY 2 ELECTIONS; TIGHT RACE EXPECTED Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D. Brent Hardt for reasons 1.4(b ) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 4, Prime Minister Perry Christie dissolved parliament and announced that elections will be held May 2. At present, the race is too close to call, and neither party is likely to enjoy the same parliamentary majority now held by the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP). The key issue in the election will be the contrast in leadership styles between Hubert Ingraham, the opposition's decisive former Prime Minister, and Perry Christie, the PLP's amiable consensus builder. While the PLP is more leftward-leaning than the opposition Free National Movement (FNM),a government under either party will be an outstanding bilateral partner with the U.S. Elections are expected to be free, fair and without violence. END SUMMARY. MAY 2 ELECTION TOO CLOSE TO CALL -------------- ¶2. (C) Contrary to long-standing tradition that elections are not called during Lent, Prime Minister Christie dissolved parliament on April 4, announcing an election date of May 2. Elections are expected to be free, fair and without violence. The PLP waited to announce changes to constituency boundaries until March 22, raising cries of unfair advantage by the FNM. The changes added, removed, and renamed constituencies, leaving almost no area untouched. During an April 4 meeting with Ambassador Rood, Christie boasted that his "brilliant" and incisive gerrymandering would make the difference in a close election. ¶3. (C) Neither party appears to have a clear advantage, and both claim they will win approximately 25 of the 41 seats in Parliament. NOTE: Regardless of which party wins the election, there may be a new Foreign Minister. Among the most interesting races is that for the seat in Fox Hill, currently held by Foreign Minister Fred Mitchell and strongly challenged by his former campaign general, Jacinta Higgs. Mitchell noted to the Ambassador that he had recently moved out of his Foreign Ministry office. END NOTE. RACE LIKELY TO FOCUS ON PERSONALITY, ECONOMY AND CORRUPTION -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) On the issues there is little to separate the parties. Bahamian politics are largely based on personality rather than policy, and the elections will likely be decided on the leadership styles of PLP leader Perry Christie and FMN leader Hubert Ingraham. Ingraham is known from his time as Prime Minister as a decisive leader who accomplished much while suppressing dissension. His critics claim he rode roughshod over opponents. Christie has a well-deserved reputation as a waffling, indecisive leader, who procrastinates and often fails to act altogether while awaiting an elusive consensus in his Cabinet. ¶5. (C) More than in past elections, however, policy has creeped into campaigns. Some candidates have even suggested pre-election debates -- unheard of in The Bahamas. The FNM has focused their campaign on trust and good governance, raising concerns arising from a string of scandals in the PLP government. The FNM has also raised nationalistic arguments against the PLP's national development strategy for hotel projects in the Family Islands, which they have characterized as land give-aways to foreigners, while criticizing the PLP's flirtations with Cuba and China and promising closer relations with the U.S. NOTE: Former Bahamian Ambassador to the U.S., Joshua Sears, is running for the FNM and is a front-runner to be Foreign Minister should he and the FNM prevail. END NOTE. ¶6. (C) The PLP is running on the strength of the Bahamian economy, and the social programs started under the PLP, including National Health Insurance and the Community Policing Program. The PLP has also brought race into the election, tying the FNM to the former white-dominated -- and black dominating -- United Bahamian Party. FNM Deputy Leader Brent Symonnette is the son of a former UBP politician and the last pre-independence premier of the Bahamas. COMMENT: EITHER PARTY WILL MAKE EXCELLENT PARTNER FOR U.S. -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) COMMENT. Regardless of who wins, the United States can expect a strong partner in the Bahamian government. The PLP, while more left-leaning than the FNM, has been a valuable ally in law enforcement and an array of bilateral initiatives, including Megaports and the Container Security Initiative. And, while it took significant Post efforts, the PLP government ultimately supported the U.S. on human rights and security council membership votes in the UN, providing hope for greater multilateral cooperation from the PLP. The FNM would likely be a stronger supporter of U.S. international goals and would take a more skeptical approach to Cuba -- possibly even terminating the Cuban eye care program -- and would certainly continue the excellent bilateral relationship we now enjoy. ¶8. (C) The timing of the elections are typical of Christie's style of governance -- uncertain, waiting until the last possible moment, with action forced by outside events rather than strategic planning. Christie lost an opportunity to call elections in Fall, when the FNM was regrouping from a leadership crisis and unprepared to fight. Christie's decision to call elections now, also forced by outside deadlines, has risked church backlash against the PLP -- no small thing in The Bahamas -- by breaking tradition and calling elections and starting campaigns over Easter weekend. Usually, one would not bet against an incumbent party running on a strong economy, low unemployment and pending projects promising billions to the nation. However, poor management and indecisive leadership, combined with questions about the integrity of PLP parliamentarians have made this a race to watch. END COMMENT. ROOD