OPPOSITION LEADER INGRAHAM SUPPORTS US ON AVIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000414 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/CAR RBUDDEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR EAIR BF SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER INGRAHAM SUPPORTS US ON AVIATION ISSUES, PLEDGES JUDICIAL REFORMS IF ELECTED REF: NASSAU 0032 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. D. BRENT HARDT, REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a final courtesy call, Ambassador Rood and Free National Movement (FNM) Leader Hubert Ingraham discussed aviation issues, judicial reform, educational initiatives, bilateral cooperation and upcoming elections. Ingraham promised to work closely with the FAA on aviation issues if elected, stating he "knew where his bread was buttered." He also lauded the excellent bilateral cooperation with the Coast Guard on drug and migrant issues. The Opposition Leader pledged that, if elected, he would make improvements in the Bahamian judiciary to speed up trials and get more criminals off the streets. On education, he supports more Bahamians being able to attend Florida and other state universities at in-state tuition rates. On investments, Ingraham believes that many of the government's new projects are poorly conceived and that others are unnecessarily delayed. With elections looming, he predicted a short campaign period of 24 days, with elections to be held in early May. He confidently predicted an FNM victory, and offered insights into constituencies he considered must wins for each side. Despite prodding, Ingraham refused to divulge the FNM's campaign budget for upcoming elections. End Summary. Ingraham Lauds Cooperation -------------- ¶2. (C) As part of his round of final courtesy calls, Ambassador Rood met with the head of the Free National Movement (FNM) and Leader of the Opposition, former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham on Tuesday, March 27. Also attending the meeting in Ingraham's downtown office were FNM Party Chairman Desmond Bannister, DCM, and Pol Chief (notetaker). Ingraham was in a good mood and seemed primed for the campaign ahead. He lauded the excellent cooperation The Bahamas has with Federal Aviation Administration, the Coast Guard, DEA and US Customs and Border Protection. He described the relationships with these agencies as "critical" to The Bahamas, and pledged that his government would not jeopardize cooperation with such things as "Cuba tours, unnecessary medical care and scholarships." FAA is the Only Way! -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador raised the issue of the airport security and safety problems with Ingraham, stating that he remained concerned by both security vulnerabilities and overall airport management. He told Ingraham that he would support the imposition of a 90-day review period for the airport if no progress is made on addressing long-standing security concerns, though he acknowledged that the government did now appear to be giving the issue serious attention. Ingraham asked the Ambassador to elaborate on the problems. Not needing any further prodding, the Ambassador outlined several problems, including: the aesthetic appearance of the facilities, the slow pace in processing passengers, radar problems, and endemic security concerns. Ingraham stated that Minister of Transport and Aviation Hanna-Martin was "out of her depth" and that there is no direction being given to civil aviation. Charges that his government had purchased a radar system that did not work -- the ASR-9 -- concerned Ingraham. He noted that his government had purchased the system upon a U.S. recommendation. He added that if he wins the elections, he will make changes at the airport, to include getting the new radar system repaired and on line. Ingraham also stated that he supports FAA running the Flight Information Region, observing that he had learned through hard experience that the it would be too risky to defy the U.S. on such a sensitive safety issue. Ambassador and Ingraham Spar Over Baggage Handlers -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador and Ingraham sparred over the case of the five baggage handlers arrested in December (reftel). Ingraham made clear he believes the Nassau Flight Services baggage handlers were set up. The Ambassador stated that the training was routine, as others went and came back, adding that if individuals who commit crimes against U.S. law come to the U.S., they will be arrested. Ingraham stated that his sources at the airport indicated otherwise. He further indicated that if he was Prime Minister, the arrests occurring in this manner would have caused a serious bilateral issue. Stated Ingraham, "if they committed the crimes here, they should be tried here." He did not dispute their guilt or the right of the United States to arrest them once they had entered US territory. In the end, Ambassador and Ingraham agreed to disagree on the manner of the arrests. Judicial Shortcomings -------------- ¶5. (C) The discussion of the baggage handlers arrest in the U.S. led to a broader discussion of the court system in The Bahamas. The DCM, noting that other baggage handlers who did not travel to Florida in December have been picked up by the police but have not been charged, asked Ingraham how he would respond as Prime Minister if individuals engaged in such acts were unable to be prosecuted. Ingraham acknowledged that the Bahamian courts were dysfunctional, and needed changes in leadership. He said that cases move too slowly and many criminals are out on bail committing new offenses. He also noted that Bahamian prosecutors are often wary of taking high profile cases to jury due to possible tampering, and that in non-jury trials the maximum sentence for a drug offense is five years. He stated that many of the judges were simply not competent, having been appointed for political reasons. Ingraham said that he did not have a problem with extraditing major drug dealers such as Knowles or the Majors, but believed that small time drug dealers should be locally prosecuted. In-State Rates, Please -------------- ¶6. (C) Ingraham expressed his interest in expanding opportunities for more Bahamian students to study more affordably in the U.S. He would also welcome more resources for special education and vocational training. The DCM noted that Bahamian students can now take advantage of in-state rates at the University of Rhode Island as a result of the Rhode Island National Guard State Partnership Program. The Ambassador said that he intended to work with the new Florida governor Charlie Christ on such issues after he leaves the Bahamas. Both Ingraham and Bannister said that The Bahamas needs more special education teachers and the capability to deal with children with autism and Attention Deficit Disorder. The DCM noted that this had been a focus of discussion when Governor Bush had visited The Bahamas in 2006 and that we needed to follow-up those initial discussions with the Florida Department of Education. Ingraham on Christie and the PLP -------------- ¶7. (C) Turning to the political scene, Ingraham observed that he would support Perry Christie -- who is his former law partner and good friend -- for many jobs, but Prime Minister was not one of them. He described Christie as fatally disorganized and incapable of running a government. (Comment: The day before the meeting the press widely quoted an exchange between Christie and Ingraham in which Ingraham referred to Christie as "impotent." Ingraham wryly noted that he was referring only to matters of governance.) He said that in his view, the PLP believes it has "the right to govern" and that the FNM victories in 1992 and 1997 were accidents. He expressed the view that some of the investment projects such as Bimini Bay were too large, and that the environmental bureaucracy was unworkable. Money and Politics -------------- ¶8. (C) Despite prodding, neither Ingraham nor Bannister would reveal the FNM's budget for the upcoming election. Parties are free to take money from any source, and Ingraham said that most of the money comes from businesses. Persons outside the country can also contribute to parties, and he said that normally only outsiders with interests in The Bahamas do so. He also said that he had enough money for the campaign, but not all that he could use. Typically, money tends to flow in at the last minute when it is too late to deploy effectively, he pointed out. Observing that the PLP was running many more radio advertisements than the FNM this early in the campaign, he suggested that this reflected their anxiety about the election. Much of the money used for campaign paraphernalia is actually spent in the United States to buy T-shirts and hats, he noted. Races to Watch for Victory by Either Side -------------- ¶9. (C) The FNM leader said he expected a short campaign of 24 days, with elections called soon after Easter. Ingraham provided he Ambassador with a "scorecard" of key races to watch to determine the outcome of the next election. In Fox Hill, he predicted that if the PLP wins that seat, they are going to probably win the election, but he also felt that Foreign Minister Fred Mitchell would be defeated by his candidate. He also noted his surprise that Tourism Minister Wilchcombe may be in trouble in his own constituency. On the other hand, if Housing Minister Neville Wisdom is reelected, that would be a sign the PLP was on its way to victory. The FNM expects to win the Exuma seat being contested by former Bahamian Ambassador to the U.S. Joshua Sears. Ingraham noted that the polls in 2002 were more accurate than often acknowledged, adding that the lesson from that campaign was that undecided voters usually broke against the government. Polls are now being taken on the larger islands, but Ingraham refused to divulge the results. Ingraham said the PLP strategy was to increase the negative perceptions of him and make him a central election issue. (Note: Ingraham is a very polarizing figure and PLP ads are clearly targeting him personally.) He alluded that many people are personally benefiting from the PLP government and do not want the gravy train to end with an FNM victory. Ingraham dismissed the PLP's use of the race card, linking his party to the former colonial UPB party, stating that he had credibility on the issue and noted that Christie's own grandfather was white. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Always engaging and never at a loss for words, Ingraham seemed very comfortable on the issues and did not shy away from disagreeing with the Ambassador, as in the case of the airport arrests. While he pledged cooperation on aviation issues and promised to make the judicial system work better, he also made clear he would not hesitate to disagree with the U.S. if he felt Bahamian interests were not being well served. Ingraham conveyed the self-assurance of a leader who has been in charge before and believes he soon will be again. From the United States perspective, an Ingraham-led government would likely abandon the PLP's sympathetic posture toward Cuba and might be less interested in engaging China. Ingraham would also give us an interlocutor willing and able to make decisions and follow through on them. His ten years as Prime Minister have given him a good understanding of the United States and how to work with us, and he certainly looks forward to maintaining our traditionally close relations. HARDT