SOMALIA DART SITUATION REPORT 12 - FOOD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 000594

SIPDIS

AIDAC

USAID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS
DCHA/OFDA FOR KLUU, GGOTTLIEB, AFERRARA, ACONVERY,
CGOTTSCHALK, KCHANNELL
DCHA/FFP FOR WHAMMINK, JDWORKEN
AFR/AFR/EA FOR JBORNS
STATE FOR AF/E AND PRM
STATE/AF/E FOR NGARY
STATE/F FOR ASISSON
STATE/PRM FOR AWENDT, MMCKELVEY
NSC FOR TSHORTLEY
USUN FOR TMALY
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PREF PHUM PREL SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA DART SITUATION REPORT 12 - FOOD
SECURITY ASSESSMENT

REFS: A)NAIROBI 00380 B) NAIROBI 00255

NAIROBI 00000594 001.2 OF 004


SUMMARY


1. According to the preliminary results of the UN Food
and Agriculture's (FAO) Food Security Analysis Unit
(FSAU) and the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning
Systems Network (FEWS NET) multi-agency post-short
rains assessment, the October-December rains in Somalia
were largely beneficial for pastoral areas and rain-fed
agriculture. Sorghum production in Bay and Bakool
regions was above average. In contrast, the maize
producing regions of Shabelle, Juba Valley, Hiraan, and
Gedo had a poor harvest due to flooding. Humanitarian
indicators for communities along the Shabelle and Juba
rivers are declining and emergency interventions are
required. While FSAU and FEWS NET concluded that the
impact of conflict in December and January was minimal
on agriculture and livestock sectors in most of the
regions, prolonged insecurity and conflict could have a
greater negative impact. End Summary.

METHODOLOGY


2. On January 31, the FSAU, FEWS NET, and non-
governmental organization (NGO) partners released
preliminary findings from the recently concluded post-
short rains assessment and analysis. From December 13
to January 10, a multi-agency assessment team conducted
interviews, focus groups, crop production surveys,
pastoral surveys, nutrition assessments, market price
surveys, flood impact surveys, and conflict monitoring
surveys in all regions of Somalia, including areas
affected by recent insecurity.


3. The information gathered was then checked against
other data generated by the FSAU, FEWS NET, NGOs, and
sentinel sites. Staff members from FSAU, FEWS NET, and
nearly 40 other local and international organizations
conducted the field research. NGOs and UN agencies
working in food security, livelihoods, and nutrition
reviewed the preliminary results in Nairobi, Kenya, and
Hargeisa, Somalia. Results from this research were
compared with the results from the same assessment in
February 2006.

CHANGE IN NUMBER OF AFFECTED PEOPLE


4. A major finding of the assessment was that the
total number of people in acute food and livelihood
crisis and humanitarian emergency has dropped from 1.3
million people that FSAU reported in July 2006 to
590,000 people. Gedo, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower
Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Hiraan are the regions
most affected by food and livelihood insecurity,
according to this study. The total population in
crisis is estimated to be approximately 1 million
people, including 65,000 conflict-displaced people and
400,000 existing internally displaced persons (IDPs).


5. The field assessment was also able to confirm
estimates of people displaced by flooding in Somalia.
The Nairobi-based flood working group, including the
FSAU, FEWS NET, and the Somali Water Information
Management System (SWALIM),originally estimated that
the November-December flooding displaced 454,500
people. According to results from this study, an
estimated 255,000 people were actually displaced at the

NAIROBI 00000594 002.2 OF 004


height of the flooding. Additionally, field
researchers found that nearly 90 percent of those have
returned home despite destruction of irrigation canals,
houses, water points, and underground food stores.

CLIMATE AND CONFLICT'S IMPACT


6. The FSAU and FEWS NET concluded that climate had a
positive impact on food production in rain-fed
agriculture areas, but negatively affected livelihoods
of river valley populations dependent on irrigation.
According to the assessment, the recent conflict in
southern and central Somalia had a minimally negative
impact, but prolonged insecurity has the potential to
disrupt inter-regional and cross-border trade.


7. From October to December 2006, most of Somalia
received above average rainfall and currently has more
vegetation than usual. For example, Lower Juba Region
received more than 300 percent of the long-term
rainfall average. Compared to the 1997 El Nino the
intensity and temporal distribution of the 2006/2007
short rains were significantly less than in 1997. Most
regions received 50 to 80 percent of what they received
in 1997. However, the impact of the 2006/2007 flooding
was similar to that of 1997 because most of the
riverbanks that were damaged in 1997 have not yet been
repaired and Somalia was not adequately prepared. The
flooding destroyed crops, food stores, irrigation
infrastructure, feeder roads, as well as contaminated
water sources. Despite the flooding in riverine areas
of Somalia, the rains had a beneficial impact on the
availability of water and pasture for livestock and
contributed to a successful harvest in the sorghum
belt.


8. The FSAU and FEWS NET reported that conflict had
some impact on food, nutrition, and livelihood
security, in some areas although it was not as great as
originally feared. The conflict did briefly disrupt
seasonal agricultural and pastoral activities,
including flood recessional planting and livestock
migration. Conflict and insecurity affected cross-
border trade and limited inter-regional trade and
market access, compounding access problems caused by
heavy rains and flooding. The January 3 closure of the
Somalia-Kenya border also prevented trade flow and
population movement. (REF A).


9. Conflict was initially concentrated along tarmac
roads, such as the Kismayo-Jilib road and the Belet
Weyne-Jowhar road, and did not spill over into
agricultural areas. The team found no evidence that
combatants had targeted agricultural or livestock
resources. The team concluded that with the exception
of parts of Juba Valley, the location of much of the
fighting and military activity in recent months, the
conflict had a greater impact on urban livelihoods than
rural livelihoods (although the team did not conduct
urban livelihood assessments). Finally, the assessment
team concluded that insecurity and recent conflict has
caused a shrinking of humanitarian space, compounding
existing problems and complicating the investigation of
a possible Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic in animals
and humans. (REF B)

AGRICULTURE


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10. According to the assessment, the 2006/2007 short
rains cereal production in Somalia is approximately
111,000 metric tons (MT),which is 262 percent of the
2005/2006 harvest and 113 percent of the average of
1995-2005 production. Maize was 21 percent of the
total cereal production and sorghum was 79 percent.


11. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, and Middle
Shabelle were the four regions with poor crop
production, mostly due to flooding. Bakool, Bay, and
Middle Juba regions had exceptional crop production
this season.


12. In 2006, Somalia's four harvests produced more
than 272,000 MT of cereal, which is 101 percent of the
post-war average and significantly higher than the
total 2005 annual cereal production. Even though the
harvest was good, the cereal produced represents a
small percentage of Somalia's food needs, which are
estimated to be more than 600,000 MT annually.

LIVESTOCK


13. The FSAU reports that animal body conditions have
markedly improved with greater water and pasture
availability. Camel, sheep, and goat holdings have
improved, while cattle holdings remain stable. The
assessment team recorded a significant recovery in
livestock prices, which should lead to improved terms
of trade for cereals.


14. In 2006, Somalia exported 3 million animals,
representing 91 percent of the 1995-1997 average and
124 percent of the 2003-2005 average.


15. An unknown camel disease (REF B),which originated
in Ethiopia, is now in Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Lower and
Middle Shabelle, central, northeast, and northwest
regions in Somalia. The disease causes sudden animal
death and affects 10 to 20 percent of the herd, but
does not spread within it. The disease is not
transmittable to humans. At this time, the FSAU has
not issued an alert but will continue to monitor and
investigate reports along with FAO's veterinary
partners.


16. The team also provided a projected scenario for
the impact of a potential RVF outbreak on the Somali
livestock sector based on current indicators. The FSAU
predicts that any outbreak of RVF in Somalia in 2007
will not be as severe as the 1997 RVF outbreak and will
be localized. In the short-term (1 to 2 months),the
FSAU anticipates a minimal impact on the livestock
economy from the closure of the Kenyan cattle market,
because many livestock holders are currently attempting
to restock their herds and are not selling.

NUTRITION


17. During the food security assessment, field teams
also took mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC)
measurements from children under the age of five to
integrate nutritional data with food security data.
MUAC measurements are a quick screening method that is
not statistically comparable to formal nutritional
surveys.


18. In December, field teams utilizing the MUAC method

NAIROBI 00000594 004.2 OF 004


found that 10 to 15 percent of children under the age
of five in Belet Weyne District, Hiraan Region,
suffered from serious levels of malnutrition. The
malnutrition rates in Belet Weyne are likely linked to
waterborne diseases, such as cholera, that spread
during flooding. Experts believe that further
investigation of the causes of malnutrition is
especially warranted in Hiraan, as the levels of
malnutrition may not be a food security issue as they
are elsewhere, but instead be related to water,
sanitation, and hygiene problems.


19. Riverine settlements in Middle Juba Region are
other areas of concern, according to the assessment.
Throughout Middle Juba Region the high levels of
acutely malnourished children are decreasing, except in
riverine communities where an increase in malnutrition
rates has been documented since December. According to
the FSAU, the causes for the increasing levels of
malnutrition in the riverine communities include
localized displacement, diarrheal disease, malaria, and
disrupted access to feeding centers due to flooding.


20. The team concluded that immediate nutritional
interventions are needed in the riverine communities
along the Shabelle River in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle
regions as well as along the Juba River in Middle Juba
and Gedo regions.

FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK


21. Overall, the food security and nutrition
situations have markedly improved throughout Somalia,
most regions were downgraded on the integrated phase
classification (IPC) scale. The FSAU created the IPC
system to integrate multiple nutrition, livelihood, and
agriculture indicators into a single food security risk
classification system. The system classifies risk by
district from generally food secure to famine and
humanitarian catastrophe. The only areas that remain
under a humanitarian emergency classification on the
IPC are the riverine areas mentioned above and Gedo
Region. Much of the improvement is due to the
favorable climatic conditions from the long and short
rains of 2006.


22. The preliminary results of the food security and
livelihood assessment in Somalia are positive, but
tempered by political uncertainty, insecurity, and an
erratic climate. As a result, humanitarian assistance
will continue to be required in Somalia.


23. FEWS NET and the FSAU are staffed with talented
Somali technical experts willing to travel frequently
throughout Somalia. The information and analysis they
provide is vital to USAID, other donors, and the
humanitarian community working in Somalia.

RANNEBERGER