IN THE CIC'S WAKE, WARLORDS SEEK TO REASSERT THEIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 005408

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/RSA, AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2026
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET KE
SUBJECT: IN THE CIC'S WAKE, WARLORDS SEEK TO REASSERT THEIR
INFLUENCE IN SOMALIA

REF: NAIROBI 5405

Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary and comment: Following the swift withdrawal
of CIC forces from central and southern Somalia, several of
Somalia's more notorious warlords are seeking to reassert
their influence. The resurging warlords are reportedly
assuming control of the weapons turned over by the CIC to the
sub-clans of Mogadishu. While we continue to monitor the
return of warlords and the attendant threat of a return to
warlordism, it will be difficult to discern which weapons and
technicals (battlewagons) are under the control of the
ENDF/TFG and which are under the control of the
sub-clans/warlord militias. End Summary and comment.


2. (C) There are numerous reports that several warlords have
returned (or are planning to return) and are asserting their
influence.


3. (C) Mohamed Qanyare Afra, of the Hawiye/Murosade has
regained control of the area of Daynile, in northwest
Mogadishu. Qanyare previously lost control of Daynile in June
2006 to Abu Quteyba. He then fled to the northwest, spent
some time in Addis Ababa, and eventually settled in Baidoa,
biding his time. Qanyare is the former TFG Minister for
Defense. He lost his parliamentary seat when he joined the
Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counterterrorism
(ARPFAT). Qanyare has the reputation of being the smartest,
most politically astute warlord. he had supposedly
maintained his intelligence and security networks in
Mogadishu. He is single-minded, focused on returning to a
position of power and influence and of destroying the
Islamists whom he views as a threat to his position.


4. (C) Mohamed Omar Habeb Mohamed Dheere (variant. Dhere) of
the Hawiye/Abgaal/Warsengeli sub-clan is a wealthy and
well-connected businessman/warlord, recently re-installed in
Jowhar. Dheere ceded his parliamentary seat in favor of
Gedi, thereby allowing Gedi to become prime minister. Jowhar
is Dheere's main area of influence, where he provided safe
haven to the TFG from May 2005 until it relocated to Baidoa
in early 2006. After Jowhar fell to the CIC, Dheere traveled
to Addis, among other places.


5. (C) Bashir Rage may be reasserting his influence through
his cousin (name unknown). Rage, of the
Hawiye/Abgaal/Warsengeli Sub-clan, was part of the ARPFAT.
He controlled the lucrative port of El Ma'an until he was
displaced by the CIC. Rage is rumored to be residing in
Uganda, following his ousting by the CIC. His cousin is said
to have taken control of 172 technicals. While Rage may have
political ambitions, the size of his support base may not be
broad enough to support such ambitions.


6. (C) Abdi Nur Siyad (AKA "Abdi Wa'al") of the Hawiye/Haber
Gedir/Ayr Sub-clan, a former member of ARPFAT, is also
believed to be reasserting his power in Mogadishu. Siyad is
believed to have played an instrumental role in instigating
the fighting between the ARPFAT and the CIC in May 2006.


7. (C) Abdi Hassan Awale Qeybdid (AKA "Abdi Qeybdid") of the
Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Sa'ad sub-clan, plans to return to
reassert his influence in his traditional base in Sa'ad
neighborhoods in Mogadishu. Abdi Qeybdid was the last
warlord to hold out against the CIC, battling the CIC in
Mogadishu and then continuing in Galcayo following his
retreat. After the surrender of his weapons to the CIC, he
retreated to Ethiopia.


8. (C) Colonel Barre Adan Shire Hirale, of the
Daarood/Marehan sub-clan, is likely to enjoy success in
reconsolidating his power in the immediate port area of
Kismaayo. Hirale returned to Kismaayo on January 1, 2007
with the Ethiopian forces. Hirale is the former chairman of
the Jubba Valley Alliance, a cross clan alliance which
controlled much of Kismaayo city, port, and environs prior to
Kismaayo's fall to the CIC in early October 2006. He is the
current TFG Minister for Defense, replacing Qanyare when he
lost his seat due to his role in the ARPFAT.


9. (C) And lastly, the son of former warlord Mohamed Farah
Aideed, Hussain Aideed, is expected to play an influential
role as the Minister for the Interior. Hussain Aideed is a
U.S. citizen and former member of the U.S. armed forces.
Hussain does not yet command the level of support his father
enjoyed.

NAIROBI 00005408 002 OF 002


RANNEBERGER