SOMALIA DISCUSSIONS WITH TFG FOREIGN MINISTER HURRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 005401 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/RSA, AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET KE SUBJECT: SOMALIA DISCUSSIONS WITH TFG FOREIGN MINISTER HURRE Classified By: Ambassador Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) As the Somalia crisis has unfolded, TFG Foreign Minister Hurre, who has been in Nairobi throughout, has been a useful source of information and insights into TFG actions. While he does not have much political clout within the TFG, he is in close contact with Yusuf and Gedi and reliably passages messages. He is also usefully frank. ¶2. (C) During a December 30 discussion with the Ambassador, Hurre insisted that, after some initial stumbling, Yusuf and Gedi have both gotten onto the right message on the need for dialogue with all segments of Somalia. He correctly pointed out that the way in which the TFG proceeds to set up the local administration for Somalia will demonstrate whether the governing process will be inclusive. That, in turn, will be key to maintaining security. Hurre discussed the governing plan that the TFG Parliament adopted in April, 2006. It provides for creation of a governing structure for the 18 regions and 92 districts of Somalia. The plan calls for mini-reconciliation conferences to be held in each district. The conferences will select (not elect) their local government. There will then be a district-level reconciliation conference to select the district government. The TFG will facilitate the holding of these reconciliation conferences. The conferences are supposed to use the TFG Charter 4.5 clan-sharing formula as their guideline in choosing officials. This approach has already been carried out in the Bay regions, Hurre said. He added that the holding of these conferences, once sufficient security has been established, will require appropriate resources and support. He appealed for U.S. assistance. ¶3. (C) Hurre was frank in discussing PM Gedi,s limitations. Hurre said that there are two problems with Gedi: he is new to politics and he has his own agenda to maintain himself in power. Hurre recognized that most observers see Gedi as a block to achieve real reconciliation. He has no credibility with his own Hawiye (Habr Gedir) clan, and selection of a new broadly-accepted Prime Minister will be important to help achieve national reconciliation. Nevertheless, Hurre said, the situation is too fluid and uncertain now to replace Gedi. Hurre said that Gedi is likely to survive as PM for at least several more months, but would eventually be replaced. ¶4. (C) Hurre talked about Yusuf,s commitment to dialogue, but was quick to point out the tremendous challenges in achieving this. The important Ayr sub-clan of the Hawiye has a history of opportunitistism, Hurre claimed, and helped serve as the militia of Aideed (the father who is not Ayr but Sa'ad). (Separately, we were told that in a meeting with Ayr clan leaders, Yusuf emotionally asked why he should deal with them since they had killed his great grandfather.) Yet another glimpse into the difficulties of organizing dialogue was provided by Hurre when he pointed out that the head of the ad hoc civil society/business committee formed in Mogadishu in recent days, a businessman named Dr. Mohammed Olussow, had a falling out with Yusuf over Olussow,s previous role as governor of the TFG central bank. ¶5. (C) While noting the very bad blood between Gedi and TFG Parliament Speaker Hassan, Hurre said it is nevertheless important to try to get Hassan to return to Somalia (he has refused to go back while Ethiopian forces are there because, he says, it precludes unfettered deliberations by the Parliament). Hurre urged us to reach out to Arab countries to try to persuade Hassan to resume his participation in the TFG. ¶6. (C) Hurre said that the TFG declared martial law so that it could better control the movements of warlords. He made a distinction between warlords like Dheere and Hirale, who fought with the TFG and who need to have prominent roles, and others like Qanyare and Qeybdid, who must be constrained. (Dheere, it should be remembered, vacated his seat in Parliament so that Gedi could assume it and then become Prime Minister.) ¶7. (C) Hurre said that Kenya has consistently been providing close support for the TFG. Foreign Minister Tuju was supposed to travel to Baidoa with money for the TFG, but had to delay his trip given that the Kenyan treasury is closed for the holidays. ¶8. (U) Like Yusuf and Gedi, Hurre said that U.S. support and influence will be the most essential ingredient in helping to bring about an inclusive national government structure and long-term security. NAIROBI 00005401 002 OF 002 RANNEBERGER