KENYA ELECTIONS: THE BATTLE FOR LANGATA - HOW A

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 004825

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: THE BATTLE FOR LANGATA - HOW A
LOCAL SKIRMISH COULD LOSE THE WAR FOR ODINGA


Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Kenya,s Constitution requires that its President
also be an elected Member of Parliament. Of the three major
presidential candidates, only Raila Odinga lacks a safe seat.
Odinga's choice to run for parliament in the ethnically
mixed, Nairobi-based Langata constituency he has represented
since 1992, rather than a safe seat in the Luo-dominated
Nyanza province, has exposed him to a tough campaign. His
challenger is Stanley Livondo, the very rich ) very corrupt
) ethnic-Luhya PNU standard bearer who can now count on near
unanimous support among the pro-Kibaki residents of the
constituency (principally Kikuyus, older Nubians and some
fellow Luhyas) after allegedly buying off two other
pro-Kibaki candidates. We have heard continuing worries
expressed by the most senior levels of the Electoral
Commission and other rumors indicating that efforts could be
made to influence the Langata election against Odinga.
Odinga,s recent campaigning there is an acknowledgement that
high turnout particularly in the Luo-dominated Kibera slum is
the key to overcoming Livondo,s threat. Our discussions with
ODM and PNU local organizers and interested citizens leads us
to believe that the race is competitive but that in a free
and fair election, Odinga would likely retain his
parliamentary seat due to strong support among Luos and
Nubians in Kibera. Odinga supporters may try to physically
prevent PNU voters from accessing Kibera polling stations
until late on election day, if even then. This is a recipe
for electoral violence, obviously. Odinga forfeiting a clear
national win over Kibaki due to a dubious loss in Langata has
the greatest potential to produce significant post-election
disturbances in Kenya. Accordingly, four U.S. Mission
observation teams, including one led by the Ambassador, will
be deployed to Langata on December 27. END SUMMARY

LANGATA CONSTITUENCY: ODINGA'S LONG-TERM BASE, BUT NO SAFE SEAT
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2. (SBU) Raila Odinga has represented Langata in parliament
for the past 15 years, winning convincingly in three
elections. Langata district encompasses Kibera slum (one of
Africa's largest) which is predominantly Luo with a sizeable
Nubian population, several housing estates, and includes the
toney suburb of Karen. Odinga's choice to run for parliament
in the ethnically mixed constituency of Langata, rather than
a safe seat in the Luo-dominated Nyanza province, has exposed
him to a tough campaign. Odinga,s most significant
challenger is Stanley Livondo, the PNU standard bearer who
can now count on near unanimous support among the Kikuyu
community and a significant proportion of his fellow Luhyas
after two pro-Kibaki candidates (Mungiki criminal
organization founder Ndura Waruinge and Karanja Mungai of
FORD-Kenya) withdrew from the race on December 19th and
endorsed Livondo. It is unanimous among local political
observers that Livondo bought off these candidates and their
vote block. There is no doubt that the PNU is focused on
winning Langata.


3. (SBU) Poloffs visited Langata to get a feeling for the
dynamic of the campaign. We spoke to ODM ward organizers,
civic candidates and a PNU organizer in Kibera slums, as well
as groups of citizens in Kibera and the housing estates
outside Kibera, where Kikuyu dominate.

KIBERA: NO-GO ZONE FOR PNU
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4. (SBU) Kibera has a large Luo population, along with
sizeable numbers of Luhya and Nubians. From what we saw,
Kibera operates as a closed ODM political shop. ODM campaign
posters were everywhere, although we saw evidence of many
defaced PNU posters. ODM organizers in Kibera were confident
of an Odinga victory, predicting 80 percent of the vote.
However, when asked about plans for getting out the vote, one
civic candidate expressed his desire to make it difficult for
non-ODM voters to exercise their right to vote, stating, &We
will get our people to the polls at 4am and then the others
may vote after 2pm, when we finish.8 ODM contacts admitted
they were concerned by allegations of vote buying and the
possibility that Kikuyu would be brought in from outside
Langata to vote for Livondo. ODM allegedly has mobilized its
supporters to patrol Kibera and physically repel suspected
pro-Kibaki outsiders, which is a recipe for electoral
violence. Multiple sources tell us Langata will have a
particularly heavy police presence on election day.


5. (SBU) Rajab Walala (ethnic Nubian),a PNU organizer in
Kibera, confirmed that it was nearly impossible to conduct
any campaign activity there. He complained that PNU posters
were immediately torn down or defaced and that people were
beaten if they wore any pro-Kibaki or PNU campaign shirts.
Media recently reported the beating death of a 15-year-old
boy in Kibera by a mob for wearing PNU gear. Oddly, Walala
was wearing bright blue PNU gear when we met him on a Kibera
street.


6. (SBU) The Muslim Nubian community in Kibera (estimated
at 10%) seems to be largely pro-Odinga. Many Kibera
landlords are Nubian. They originally hail from northern
Sudan and Southern Egypt. They were settled in Nairobi by
the British after fighting for the allies in World War I.
Many of them have no land titles, their chief grievance.
Poloffs spoke with community leaders, who stated that fear
and promises of spoils were motivating factors in the
community. Kibaki has lured landowning Nubians with promises
of clear title to land, while others sense that momentum is
on Odinga,s side. Embassy contacts estimate that the Nubian
vote breaks 75/25 for Odinga, who trends even higher among
Nubian youth.

LANGATA IN PLAY OUTSIDE OF KIBERA
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7. (SBU) In contrast to Kibera, where evidence of ODM
support is all pervasive, the streets of the housing estates
in Langata were strewn with campaign material of a large
number of parties and candidates. We were unable to find any
PNU party offices in the two districts we visited, although
PNU campaign material was widespread and residents told us
that small scale campaign events were common.


8. (SBU) At the time of our visit, the withdrawal of the two
pro-Kibaki candidates had not yet occurred. However, one
group of youth were convinced that Ndura Waruinge would
ultimately sell his support to PNU candidate Stanley Livondo
) who has established a reputation for being a money man,
in trying to gain support. Waruinge withdrew the following
day.


9. (SBU) We also met a group of ODM supporters at a
mechanic,s shop outside Kibera. They expressed the widely
held fear of ODM that PNU was trying to rig the elections.
In the affluent suburb of Karen (the site of the writer Karen
Blixen's colonial era farm),a local official stated that
Karen residents don't really care about politics; however
people we spoke to were roughly split between ODM and PNU
supporters.

COMMENT
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10. (C) The idea that pro-Kibaki forces will bring in voters
from outside the constituency seems to have gained some
currency both on the street and among the political elite.
Odinga,s recent campaign appearances in Langata and his
wife,s appearances in Kibera on the day of our visit seem a
tacit recognition by Odinga that he must defend his seat and
work to get out the vote. Livondo's toughest task may be to
convince his fellow Luhya to vote for him, as the Luhyas of
Western Province lean towards Odinga. Despite the recent
boost to Livondo,s campaign, we believe that Odinga,s
strength in Kibera should see him through in a free and fair
election. Odinga forfeiting a clear win over Kibaki due to a
dubious loss in Langata, however, has the greatest potential
to produce significant post-election disturbances.
Accordingly, four U.S. Mission observation teams, including
one led by the Ambassador, will be deployed to Langata on
Election Day, December 27.
RANNEBERGER