KENYA ELECTIONS: COUNTDOWN 5: 9 DAYS AWAY

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004803 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: COUNTDOWN 5: 9 DAYS AWAY REF: NAIROBI 4759 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The latest opinion polls show Odinga in the lead. All three major candidates express public confidence, while some of their prominent supporters express private gloom. There exists a theoretical possibility that Odinga or Kibaki could win the national vote while still failing to qualify for presidential office due to failure to win election to parliament (Odinga) or failure to clear the hurdle of at least 25 percent support in five of the eight provinces (Kibaki). END SUMMARY. Three Polls Show Odinga in the Lead -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On Saturday, 15 December The Nation newspaper published polls from three firms: INFOTRAK Harris (IH), Strategic Research (SR) and Consumer Insight (CI). All three show ODM's Raila Odinga in the lead, although the Consumer Insight poll shows that lead as within the margin for error. The results are as follows: Raila Odinga (ODM): 45.8 (IH),46 (SR),42.5 (CI); AVG: 44.7 Mwai Kibaki (PNU): 35.9 (IH),36 (SR),40.8 (CI); AVG: 37.5 Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-K): 16.4 (IH),17 (SR),15.1 (CI); AVG: 16.1 As regards momentum, Odinga is up 1.5 percent (averaging the three polls) over the previous week. Kibaki is down 1.5 percent. Musyoka is static. Public Confidence, Private Gloom, Complex Scenarios -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) All three first tier candidates are confidently predicting victory in public. Party insiders have expressed private doubts to us. ODM insiders worry that blowback from the mishandled party nomination exercises may cost them support in recently won regions like Kisii where they had previously made important gains, but where that support was shallow. ODMers also express concern that they may have peaked too early in Rift Valley Province. There are signs that the ODM wave there is beginning to recede. A few ODMers also worry about the possibility Odinga could lose his parliamentary seat in Nairobi's Langata constituency, though most scoff at the idea. The Kenyan constitution requires election to Parliament to qualify for presidential office. ¶4. (SBU) While some PNU insiders have marshaled facts and figures to prove they will win on turnout, others say they have turned their attention to preserving their individual interests in an Odinga-ruled Kenya. PNUers also express concern that Kibaki could theoretically win the national vote on the strength of turnout in his native Mount Kenya region (Central Province and the Meru/Embu districts of Eastern Province),but still fail to win at least 25 percent in five of the eight provinces (a constitutional requirement to win the presidency). Kibaki's poll numbers are dangerously low in Nyanza (principally Luo),Western (Luhya),Northeastern (Somali),and Coast provinces (fifty percent Muslim). In the event Kibaki won the national vote but failed to clear the 25 percent support rule, there would be a runoff between himself and the next placed finisher (presumably Odinga). In this scenario, Musyoka's ethnic Kamba base would likely determine the outcome, probably in Kibaki's favor. (The Kamba are culturally, linguistically and historically close to the Kikuyu, but not to the same extent as the Meru and Embu. Kibaki consistently polls as the second most popular politician in Kambaland, after native son Musyoka.) ¶5. (SBU) Musyoka continues to insist publicly that he will remain in the race to the end, and that he will win. We believe he knows better. In the event that Odinga loses his constituency, and so is eliminated from the race (unlikely, but possible),then the candidate with the next highest vote count, presumably Kibaki, becomes President. If however, the candidate with the second highest vote count (Kibaki) does not clear the hurdle of 25 percent support in five of the eight provinces, then a runoff would be held between the two candidates who got the highest number of votes AND/AND won their constituency races (presumably Kibaki and Musyoka). In such an eventuality (however unlikely),then Musyoka would probably receive most of Odinga's support, and so win the presidency. More likely, Musyoka will seek a post-election parliamentary alliance with the first-round winner, exacting the best price he can get. Intriguingly, Kibaki has not named a running mate, unlike Odinga and Musyoka. RANNEBERGER