KENYA ELECTIONS: COUNTDOWN 4: 13 DAYS AWAY:

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004759 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: COUNTDOWN 4: 13 DAYS AWAY: PARLIAMENTARY CRYSTAL BALL EDITION REF: NAIROBI 4601 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Political Section compared notes with other well informed political observers on prominent government and opposition MPs likely to be defeated in the parliamentary contest. The results appear below. In total, we expect the defeat of 136 MPs out of a total of 210 (65 percent). Some defeated MPs, including ministers, may return as nominated rather than elected members of parliament, should their parties opt to do so. END SUMMARY. 65 Percent Turnover Predicted in Parliament -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The consensus among Nairobi political analysts is that about 65 percent of Members of Parliament seeking re-election will be disappointed. There is a strong anti-incumbent mood among the electorate this year as regards the legislature. Since 22 MPs have already dropped out (two retirements and 20 eliminated in the primaries),we expect at least another 114 to suffer defeat. There is no reliable polling data available at the constituency level. However, informed opinion has identified a number of government and opposition heavyweights clearly headed for defeat and others who are weak contenders, but could still pull off a victory. Some defeated MPs, including ministers, may return as nominated rather than elected members of parliament. Parties are allocated a certain number of nominated seats based on their level of representation. Some Ministers Likely to Lose their Seats -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Among those in the Kibaki camp, we count the following luminaries (including some ministers) as clearly headed for defeat or in serious trouble: -- Chris Murungaru (Notorious for corruption; Murungaru will lose to a pro-Kibaki challenger who won massively in the PNU primary.) -- George Saitoti (Minister of Education and notorious for his role in the Goldenberg scandal; pro-Kibaki ethnic Kikuyu vote is split and pro-opposition vote is coalesced behind a U.S. based ethnic Maasai preacher. The constituency stretches from Kikuyu-dominated exurbs of Nairobi to Maasai-dominated rural areas.) -- Raphael Tuju (Foreign Minister who by all accounts has done a lot for his constituency, but is bucking the Pro-Raila Odinga consensus of his Luo community.) -- Mukhisa Kituyi (An effective Trade Minister, unpopular in his constituency partly due to allegations he misappropriated Constituency Development Funds. He is also faulted for not supporting his ethnic Bukusu/Luhya FORD-Kenya party. He will lose to another pro-Kibaki candidate.) -- Morris Dzoro (Tourism Minister; his party rank and file resent his alliance with Kibaki since the party stands for decentralization and Kibaki stands for a strong unitary state. He is considered by his constituents to be inaccessible and disinterested in their welfare.) -- Wangari Maathai (Assistant Environment Minister, Nobel Peace Prize winner, her constituents complain she is constantly traveling, pays scant attention to them and is insufficiently loyal to Kibaki.) -- John Serut (From the violence-plagued Mt. Elgon region; he publicly warned all potential challengers that it would be dangerous for anyone to campaign against him as his people loved him so much they might harm his rivals. He is credibly accused of attempted rape and organizing communal violence.) -- Newton Kulundu (Labor Minister, nicknamed "the drunkard.") -- Mohammed Abdi Mahamud (Minister of Regional Development, constituents complain he has abandoned them.) ¶4. (SBU) Among those in the Kibaki camp whose campaigns are in trouble, but could still win: Vice President Moody Awori (he did not carry his constituency in the 2005 referendum, his constituency is now solidly opposition),Gideon Moi (former President Moi's son, notorious for corruption), Nicholas Biwott (notorious for corruption and violence), Joseph Munyao (Livestock Minister),and Njenga Karume (Defense Minister, has a wealthy pro-Kibaki challenger). Some Raila Odinga Allies Also in Trouble -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Among Raila Odinga supporters, we consider the following former MPs to be headed for defeat or at serious risk of defeat: -- William Nyagah (A member of Raila Odinga's "Pentagon" leadership group, he is the only prominent Kikuyu in Raila Odinga's camp.) -- William ole Ntimama (An elderly, anti-Kikuyu firebrand, his constituency was previously overwhelmingly rural Maasai, but encroachment by Nairobi exurbs have brought in many new Kikuyu voters, to his dismay.) -- Peter Anyang' Nyang'o ("The Professor" is a stalwart of opposition politics, an intellectual who serves as Raila's right-hand man, Executive Secretary of the Orange Democratic Movement, but his constituents consider that he has neglected them in favor of his role in national politics. He will lose to another pro-Raila Odinga candidate.) ¶6. (SBU) Among those whose candidacies we consider to be in serious trouble are Charity Ngilu (former Health Minister, head of the NARC party, allied to Odinga's ODM),Najib Balala (a member of the ODM "Pentagon"),Ramadhan Kajembe (many pro-Odinga voters in this Mombasa constituency felt the party imposed his candidacy),and Fred Gumo (notorious for corruption, political violence and extortion in his Nairobi constituency). We Will Report Accuracy of Our Predictions -------------- ¶7. (U) Following the election, we will report the accuracy of our predictions. RANNEBERGER