GUINEA: FORMER PM FALL ON CURRENT IMPASSE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000469 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/EX, DS/IP/AF, CA/OCS PASS ALSO TO PEACE CORPS & AID/AA TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB ASEC CASC PINS AEMR EAID GV SUBJECT: GUINEA: FORMER PM FALL ON CURRENT IMPASSE REF: CONAKRY 82 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Former Guinea PM Fall sees a yawning gap between President Conte's red lines and those of the union leaders. He predicts violent conflict between "the people and the army" on one side and "Conte's armed supporters" on the other. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) PolCouns met with SRSG for Somalia Francois Fall (former Guinean Prime Minister) to solicit his views on the current impasse between Guinea's union leaders and the GoG (see reftel). Fall averred that he remains in daily contact with senior level contacts in both the GoG and the opposition. He related the following points: -- This time the population is united in favor of change. Even Kaloum (Note: the Conakry neighborhood inhabited primarily by President Conte's Sousou ethnic group) has demonstrated in support of the union leaders' demands. -- Conte will never cede power peacefully or yield to demands under pressure, although many of those surrounding him are capable of seeing that their best interests are no longer served by remaining loyal to him. -- Conte will never agree to a constitutionally empowered Prime Minister as "Head of Government." He sees that as his exclusive role. "Coordinator of government affairs" empowered only by a "mission letter" from Conte is the only role he will ever permit for a "Prime Minister." -- Similarly, Conte will never accept a Prime Minister named by anyone other than himself. Conte may propose Kerfalla Yansanneh, former Governor of the Central Bank. Some political and labor leaders are considering former ECOWAS Executive Secretary Lansana Kouyate, but Conte is unlikely to accept him. -- Conte will not accept that a Prime Minister choose his own government. At a minimum, he will insist on naming his own Defense, Provincial Administration, Security and Agriculture ministers. -- The union leaders will not accept Conte's red lines. They saw how former would-be reformist Prime Ministers such as Sidya Toure, Celein Diallo and Fall himself were undermined by Conte when they attempted to make real changes in how Guinea is governed. They are saying "we will not be fooled again." ¶3. (SBU) Fall is worried about a likely violent confrontation in Guinea between "the people and the army" on one side and "Conte's armed supporters" on the other. Fall made the following points: -- Conte knows the army will not fire on the people. He no longer trusts them. All the firing on peaceful demonstrators has been done by either the presidential guard, the gendarmes or "Aicha Conneh's militia." -- Aicha Conneh (former leader of the Mandingo faction of Liberia's LURD rebels and highly influential Presidential soothsayer to Conte) has recalled her militia from Guinea's forest region to Conakry to protect Conte. They are using the arms that Conte had provided them in 2003 when they fought Charles Taylor. -- Conte is also protected by armed elements sent from Bissau by his old friend President Nino Viera. -- Conte never engages in "dialog." He considers it beneath him. He does not care about world opinion, but some of those around him do. -- This direct challenge to his rule is a "tonic for his health. "Conte is only wide awake and vigorous when fighting to keep power." ¶4. (SBU) Fall believes that in the end the army will step in to save the nation. "When the international community sees that constitutional means have been exhausted and that the people are demanding the army take over to organize elections, then they will accept. He pleaded for the U.S. to join others in publicly supporting demands for an official inquiry into the deaths of unarmed protesters. "This will make it clear to those around Conte that it is time to NAIROBI 00000469 002 OF 002 abandon ship." RANNEBERGER