Somalia - Cabinet Prospects

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004674

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/7/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL SO
SUBJECT: Somalia - Cabinet Prospects

REF: Nairobi 4649

NAIROBI 00004674 001.2 OF 002


Classified by Mitch Benedict for reason 1.4 (b,d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur "Madobe," Speaker of the Transitional
Federal Parliament of Somalia, told us Parliament is highly likely
not to endorse PM Hussein's cabinet as announced December 2.
Moreover, if submitted as now formulated and rejected by Parliament,
Madobe said the government would be back to "zero," and Parliament
would expect a completely new cabinet list, including a new PM. We
are urging PM Hussein to move quickly and decisively to make the
changes necessary to have the kind of competent, inclusive cabinet
needed. End Summary.

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Madobe Meeting
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2. (C) Staff from Post's Somalia Unit spoke December 5 with Sheikh
Adan Mohamed Nur "Madobe" (Rahanweyn/Mirifle/ Sagaal/Hadame),Speaker
of the Transitional Federal Parliament, on the prospects of
Parliament approving Prime Minister Hussein's proposed 31-member
cabinet. Madobe told us Hussein's proposed cabinet, which has been
made public but has not been submitted for parliamentary approval, is
even weaker than the previous cabinet of Prime Minister Gedi. Madobe
asserted that as proposed, the cabinet has little chance of being
approved by Parliament. Madobe told us he thought the new PM had a
real opportunity to reach out to the opposition and bring into the
cabinet recognized experts and individuals who would truly represent
the interests of their clans and get the transition back on track.
Madobe, who was en route back from the IGAD Parliamentary meeting in
Addis Ababa and thus had not been in Baidoa, said that he had
expected to be consulted.


3. (C) Instead, according to Madobe, Hussein spent all of three days
in Baidoa and presented the list as a fait accompli. (Comment:
Hussein had been in Baidoa since prior to his November 22
appointment. End Comment). Madobe said he asked Hussein to hold off
and seek broader consultation designed to achieve greater
inclusiveness, but Hussein declined. Madobe claimed Hussein was
given the cabinet list by President Yusuf and he implied Hussein had
no option but to proceed with it. Madobe, and his advisors, insisted
that if Hussein submits the cabinet list as it now stands, then it
will not be endorsed by Parliament, including the position of Prime
Minister. Pressed for clarification, we were told twice that the
government would be back to "zero" and Parliament would expect a
completely new cabinet list, including a PM. Madobe added that it is
the prerogative of the President to resubmit the name of Hussein as
PM if he so chooses. He stressed that PM Hussein has 14 days to
submit a cabinet list to Parliament. (Comment: Madobe's accounting
is unclear. The Transitional Federal Charter gives the Prime
Minister 30 days to submit a new government to Parliament for
approval. Parliament endorsed the PM on November 24. Therefore, by
our calculations, Hussein should have until December 24 to submit his
proposed cabinet to Parliament. End Comment).


4. (C) Madobe has reached out to the Adane family in Nairobi, meeting
with the son and younger brother of Abukar Adane
(Hawiye/Abgal/Harti/Warsengeli),a chief financier of the Islamic
Courts, and he has met with representatives of the opposition based
in Djibouti and Asmara. He said he is open to non-MPs serving in the
cabinet and he is trying to pull in the opposition. Madobe stressed
that he wants to work "hand-in-hand" with the United States. "The
people have lost hope," he said, and he wants to ensure that the
opportunity is not lost to form a more inclusive and competent
government.

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Ethiopia Disappointed Too
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5. (C) Madobe's version is at odds in several respects with PM
Hussein's and may be somewhat self-serving. For example, he is known
to have flip-flopped several times when efforts were being made to
replace PM Gedi. Nonetheless, the fact is the new PM, who had a good
reception up until the announcement of his cabinet choices December
2, is being criticized from several quarters on the caliber of his
first cabinet. The Ethiopians told Special Envoy Yates earlier and
subsequently during the December 5 consultation with Secretary Rice
that they were extremely disappointed with the cabinet. As
previously reported (reftel),a large number of Somalis are too.

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Hussein Must Move Quickly

NAIROBI 00004674 002.2 OF 002


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6. (C) PM Hussein told Special Envoy Yates that he had been under the
gun to select the cabinet before going to Addis Ababa and he had
known that more changes would be necessary to have the kind of
competent, inclusive cabinet needed. He thought that he could change
piecemeal over the next several weeks. We urged him to use the
situation to move more quickly and decisively as soon as possible.
PM Hussein and his advisors took that on board. He is going to
represent the TFG in Lisbon but will be back in Nairobi by December
10 at which time we and others will be giving strong, direct advice.

RANNEBERGER