KENYA ELECTIONS COUNTDOWN 2: 37 DAYS AWAY

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004512 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS COUNTDOWN 2: 37 DAYS AWAY REF: NAIROBI 4402 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. SUMMARY: Nine presidential candidates will contest the 27 December election. The ECK plans to release the final, approved list of parliamentary candidates on 23 November. The final voter register indicates that the top five ethnic voting blocs are Kikuyu/Meru/Embu (27 pct),Kalenjin (13 pct),Luhya (11 pct),Luo (10 pct),and Kamba (9 pct). One of the three latest opinion polls shows Kibaki ahead, while the other two continue to show Odinga in first place. END SUMMARY. Nine Presidential Candidates to Contest the Elections -------------- -------------- ¶2. The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) received official party nominations for president on 14 and 15 November. The final list of nine presidential candidates consists of: Mwai Kibaki (PNU),Raila Odinga, (ODM),Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-K), Kenneth Matiba (a major presidential candidate from the first multiparty election in 1992, unexpectedly came out of retirement, Saba Saba Asili party),Bishop Pius Muiru (Kenya Peoples' Party),David Waweru Ng'ethe (Chama Cha Umma),Nixon Jeremiah Kukubo (Republican Party of Kenya),Nazlin Omar (Workers Congress Party) and Joseph Ngacha Karani (Kenya Patriotic Trust). Kenya's constitution requires any candidate for president to also be an elected member of parliament, so each of these candidates must win a parliamentary seat as well as a plurality of the national vote for president and at least 25 percent of the presidential vote in five of the eight provinces. Timeline -------------- ¶3. 23 November: ECK releases candidates list for Parliament & President. 25 November: Beginning of official campaign period. 24 December: End of Official campaign period. 27 December: Election Day. Final Voter Register Published by ECK -------------- ¶4. The final voter register indicates 14.4 million voters, 53 percent male. By ethnicity, we count voters in constituencies dominated by Kikuyu/Meru/Embu, 27 percent; Kalenjin, 13 percent; Luhya, 11 percent; Luo, 10 percent; Kamba, 9 percent; Kisii/Kuria: 5 percent, Mijikenda: 5 percent, Maasai/Samburu: 3 percent, Somali: 2 percent, Borana (Oromo): 1 percent, Taita/Taveta: 1 percent. Twelve percent of voters inhabit "mixed constituencies" where no one group clearly predominates. ¶5. On a provincial basis, the figures are: Rift Valley: 23.5 percent, Eastern: 16.5 percent, Central: 15.2 percent, Nyanza: 14.2 percent, Western: 11.4 percent, Nairobi: 8.9 percent, Coast: 8.2 percent, and Northeastern: 2.2 percent. Latest Polls -------------- ¶6. These polls were taken just prior to the 16 November party nomination exercises. Consumer Insight (Reg. Voters): Kibaki 41.4 pct, Odinga 40.7 pct, Musyoka 14.7 pct. Infotrak Harris (Population): Odinga: 47.3 pct, Kibaki 37 pct, Musyoka, 13.7 pct. Strategic Research (Reg. Voters): Odinga 49 pct, Kibaki 38 pct, Musyoka 12 pct. RANNEBERGER