Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NAIROBI4457
2007-11-14 13:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:
KENYA ELECTIONS: POLLING MATTERS
how-toVZCZCXYZ0005 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHNR #4457 3181332 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 141332Z NOV 07 FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3465 INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9687 RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5587 RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4926 RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2393 RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1655 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2475 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2400 RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 004457
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF FOR A/S FRAZER,
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: POLLING MATTERS
REF: NAIROBI 3969 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 004457
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF FOR A/S FRAZER,
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: POLLING MATTERS
REF: NAIROBI 3969 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)
1. (C) Our election analysis (reftels) indicates a close race
for the presidency. This analysis is based on voter
registration data and traditional turnout rates as well as
polling on presidential candidate preferences. We were
concerned that widely published public opinion polls, which
showed ODM's Raila Odinga well ahead of President Kibaki, did
not accurately reflect the true status of the contest. Given
the rising political temperature, partially due to the use of
blatant ethnic appeals by both sides, we were concerned about
the reaction of ODM supporters should their candidate lose in
a close outcome when they were led by public opinion polls to
expect a landslide victory.
2. (C) The Mission quietly reached out to polling firms and
their clients to suggest that poll sampling distribution
should be based on the regional distribution of registered
voters, not on raw population (there are wide variances in
voter registration rates around the country, with the high
population density areas, such as Kibaki's native Central
Province, enjoying higher rates). Polling on this basis
would be a more accurate predictor of the outcome. When one
polling firm (Consumer Insights) then started limiting its
respondents on political preference polls to those who could
produce an actual voter identification card, the change was
dramatic: Odinga: 41 percent, Kibaki: 40.6 percent. Once the
Steadman Group re-distributed their sampling according to the
August voter registration figures, the Kibaki/Odinga gap
shrank from 11 points to 4 points: from 39 percent Kibaki, 50
percent Odinga to 41 percent Kibaki, 45 percent Odinga.
3. (SBU) The Electoral Commission of Kenya has now published
the final voter registration figures. The major polling
firms have all committed to adjust their sampling according
to these figures and limiting responses to those who at least
claim to be registered voters. The results of polls based on
sampling that reflects the final voter registration figures
will be available in about two weeks.
RANNEBERGER
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
AF FOR A/S FRAZER,
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: POLLING MATTERS
REF: NAIROBI 3969 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d)
1. (C) Our election analysis (reftels) indicates a close race
for the presidency. This analysis is based on voter
registration data and traditional turnout rates as well as
polling on presidential candidate preferences. We were
concerned that widely published public opinion polls, which
showed ODM's Raila Odinga well ahead of President Kibaki, did
not accurately reflect the true status of the contest. Given
the rising political temperature, partially due to the use of
blatant ethnic appeals by both sides, we were concerned about
the reaction of ODM supporters should their candidate lose in
a close outcome when they were led by public opinion polls to
expect a landslide victory.
2. (C) The Mission quietly reached out to polling firms and
their clients to suggest that poll sampling distribution
should be based on the regional distribution of registered
voters, not on raw population (there are wide variances in
voter registration rates around the country, with the high
population density areas, such as Kibaki's native Central
Province, enjoying higher rates). Polling on this basis
would be a more accurate predictor of the outcome. When one
polling firm (Consumer Insights) then started limiting its
respondents on political preference polls to those who could
produce an actual voter identification card, the change was
dramatic: Odinga: 41 percent, Kibaki: 40.6 percent. Once the
Steadman Group re-distributed their sampling according to the
August voter registration figures, the Kibaki/Odinga gap
shrank from 11 points to 4 points: from 39 percent Kibaki, 50
percent Odinga to 41 percent Kibaki, 45 percent Odinga.
3. (SBU) The Electoral Commission of Kenya has now published
the final voter registration figures. The major polling
firms have all committed to adjust their sampling according
to these figures and limiting responses to those who at least
claim to be registered voters. The results of polls based on
sampling that reflects the final voter registration figures
will be available in about two weeks.
RANNEBERGER