KENYA ELECTIONS: PARTY PRIMARIES TRIGGER SOME VIOLENCE

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004234 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUMPREL KE SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: PARTY PRIMARIES TRIGGER SOME VIOLENCE REF: NAIROBI 3761 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the run-up to Kenya's national elections, some violence is occurring. Clashes have happened in areas which so strongly favor one party that the person who secures the party nomination is essentially assured of winning the Parliamentary seat. This type of intra-party violence could increase in the coming weeks. For example, in Odinga country, some Nyanza Province youth have already armed themselves in expectation of clashes during the mid-November party nomination process. If primary voters in Nyanza, or elsewhere, perceive that the upcoming party nomination processes are not free and fair, more bloodshed is a virtual guarantee, we heard. The Mission, as part of our larger effort to contain electoral violence, has been actively monitoring primary season hotspots over the last several months and will send 16 observer teams to such areas during the actual nomination days next month. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) As Kenyan party primaries near, clashes have been occurring in areas which so strongly favor one party that the person who secures the party nomination is essentially assured of winning the Parliamentary seat. All indications are that this type of intra-party violence will increase in the coming weeks. Now that President Kibaki has dissolved Parliament, sitting MPs have returned to their constituencies to fight for their political lives (reftel). Nationally, Kenyan voters typically return only about 50 percent of incumbents to office, but this year it is virtually unanimous among political observers that there may be an even higher turn-over rate (up to 70 percent) because the mood for change among voters is so pronounced this year. So, quite literally, the fight is on. A MICROCOSM: TENSIONS IN ODM HEARTLAND ¶3. (SBU) Responding to the rumors of campaign season violence, PolOff visited the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) stronghold of Nyanza Province on October 17 and 18. Nyanza is home to the Luo People, who are expected to overwhelmingly vote ODM and Raila Odinga in numbers predicted to exceed 85 percent. While other parties are fielding candidates, none have a realistic chance of prevailing over whoever wins the ODM nomination. During a meeting in the provincial capital, Kisumu, District Commissioner Jamleck Baruga told us that eight candidates are vying for the ODM nomination in the Kisumu MP race. Some supporters of these candidates are currently recovering in the hospital from stab wounds. The violence to date largely appears to be of the impromptu variety. Organized violence could be expected closer to primary election day, especially if Raila Odinga starts hand-picking who will win ODM nominations in Nyanza. Similarly, the days when one of Kenya's old ethnic barons could safely deliver their block of votes are ending, we heard. Accordingly, nominating-by-fiat will inflame local passions. ¶4. (SBU) We also met with the Alego Usonga District MP candidate Raymond Muhula. Muhula is charismatic, 36 years old, and U.S.-educated. The youngest aspirant in the race, Muhula has branded himself as the "youth candidate." He repeated Commissioner Baruga's warning that any attempt by Odinga to handpick a candidate would be "completely rejected." He accused two more seasoned contestants, Edwin Yinda and Oloo Aringo (current chairperson of Kenya's Parliamentary Service Commission) of employing thugs. In response, youths in the district have armed themselves and are preparing for a fight. This was a warning we heard repeated by nervous local citizens on street corners and in marketplaces throughout Nyanza. COMMENT ¶5. (SBU) The first flashes of party primary violence in Nyanza are a microcosm of what is occurring nationally within an electorate that appears tired of being told what to do by their tribal leaders. If primary voters in Nyanza, or elsewhere, perceive that the upcoming party nomination processes are not free and fair, more blood shed is a virtual guarantee. The Mission, consequently, has been actively monitoring primary season hotspots over the last several months and, once we receive requested party permission, we will send 16 observer teams to such areas during the actual nomination days next month. These efforts to lessen or prevent electoral violence are in addition to the USG funding of district-level Peace Committees and Kenyan Domestic Observers (through the UNDP),our sponsorship of the anti-violence "Umoja Pamoja" youth music campaign, and repeated public response and high-level GOK engagement by the Ambassador and other Mission personnel whenever campaign-related violence has struck. End comment. Ranneberger