KENYA RACES TO AVERT ENERGY SHORTAGE IN THE FACE OF SURGING

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004048 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB/ESC/IEC, AND OES/ENV STATE PLEASE PASS USAID FOR AFR/EA TREASURY FOR VIRGINIA BRANDON STATE PLEASE PASS USTR FOR WILLIAM JACKSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ENGR EPET ECON EINV BTIO SENV KE SUBJECT: KENYA RACES TO AVERT ENERGY SHORTAGE IN THE FACE OF SURGING EAST AFRICA DEMAND FOR PETROLEUM REFS: (A) NAIROBI 2918 (B) NAIROBI 2064 (C) NAIROBI 0266 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. For internal USG distribution only. -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Strong economic growth, expanding trade, and rural electrification are driving demand for electricity and petroleum products in Kenya and the region beyond projected supplies, thus threatening an energy crisis that could slow economic growth. Kenya has plans to expand refinery and pipeline capacity and to diversify and expand its energy sources, including wind, coal, and geothermal. KenGen, Kenya's power producer, has also proposed demand management to large industrial consumers to reduce peak demand. Unless Kenya speeds up its investment program and its industries find ways to generate their own power or reduce demand during peak hours, even regular rains may not be sufficient to avoid power shortfalls in the near future. End summary. -------------- Oil Demand Outstrips Delivery Infrastructure -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a classic good news/bad news catch 22, Kenya is now facing the twin challenges of constrained and expensive energy supplies in the midst of rising demand for energy on account of its robust economy. Exacerbating Kenya's dilemma is growing demand among its neighbors for petroleum products imported via Mombasa. Consequently, Kenya's petroleum sub-sector has witnessed phenomenal growth in both domestic and regional demand for petroleum products despite high crude oil prices. Total through-put in the Kenya pipeline increased by 39% from 2002 to 2006, partly due to increased use of diesel generators in Nairobi, Eldoret (a major manufacturing center in the northern Rift Valley),and Uganda. The Kenya Institute for Public Policy and Research Analysis (KIPPRA) estimates that annual demand for petroleum products in East Africa will increase 600% by the year 2030, from 2 to 14 million cubic meters, thus challenging regional governments to develop effective policies and undertake major infrastructure development to meet the rising demand. ¶3. (SBU) However, Kenya's infrastructural capacity to process, store, transport, and distribute petroleum products is constrained by the limited capacity of the country's one refinery in Mombasa and its sole pipeline from there to Nairobi and Eldoret. Many large trucks are thus needed to carry petroleum products to points in Kenya, Uganda, and other East African countries, further damaging Kenya's deteriorating roads. Parastatal Kenya Petroleum Refineries (KPR) is seeking investors to fund a $320 million, three-year upgrade of the refinery to enable it to process heavier, cheaper grades of crude oil more cleanly, and produce a higher proportion of lighter distillates, including low-sulfur diesel. KPR also wants to build facilities to import, store, and transport liquid petroleum gas and improve the refinery terminal. Shell, British Petroleum, and Caltex own half the refinery, but have declined to fund the upgrade. ¶4. (SBU) After Australia's Woodside Energy's offshore test well off of Lamu came up dry (ref C),the Government of Kenya (GOK) began reaching out to Libya (ref A) and China for discounted oil and the investment needed to upgrade and expand the Mombasa refinery and pipeline. The parastatal Kenya Pipeline Corporation (KPC) plans to construct four pumping stations to double the flow rate of the Mombasa-Nairobi section of the pipeline to 880 CBM/hour and to expand and extend the Nairobi-Eldoret section to the Uganda border to feed demand in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). KPC hopes to complete both projects around the end of 2008. -------------- -------------- Electricity Production Barely Keeping Up With Demand -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) During the past four years of economic growth, Kenya's demand for electricity rose 10% annually, while supply grew about 8%. Demand is expected to grow 5%-6% annually in the next 10 years, and the Kenya Electricity Generating Company, or KenGen, estimates demand will nearly triple to 3,076 MW by 2022. Kenya's current electricity generating capacity is 1,155 MW, but peak demand is 1,050 MW. Demand is expected to reach 1,082 MW by the end of 2007. This leaves a reserve margin of only 4%, well below the 15% industry rule of thumb. Once completed, the Sondu Miriu hydroelectric project is expected to inject 60 MW to the national grid in November 2007 and increase the margin slightly. In the meantime, KenGen has proposed demand management to large industrial consumers to reduce peak demand. ¶6. (SBU) The peak demand figure disregards substantial latent demand due to constrained electricity supply and frequent power outages. Currently, only about 15% (about 4 million) of Kenya's population has access to electricity and only about 6% (1.3 million) of the rural population of 22 million. With a focus on bringing electricity to rural areas, the GOK's Vision 2030 development plan calls for increasing the electricity penetration rate to 20% by 2010 and to 40% by 2020. Fulfilling a GOK promise, the Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC),the country's electricity distributor, is already proceeding with rural electrification. In the latter half of 2006, KPLC increased its customer base by 16% to 866,000, and it is committed to connecting 120,000 customers per year over the next three years. This should boost the rural economy and reduce poverty -- if the power is available to deliver. ¶7. (SBU) Kenya's electricity situation is fragile and cannot withstand any unforeseen shocks such as droughts or a system breakdown without load shedding. In addition to capacity shortfalls, the power industry suffers from weak power transmission and distribution infrastructure. System losses are currently estimated at 23%, well above the international benchmark of 15% for similar systems. The low quality of Kenya's power is demonstrated by the frequency and intensity of voltage fluctuations and power outages, currently estimated at about 9,000 per month. In reaction to growing complaints that the government is moving too slowly in addressing Kenya's energy needs, Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi told attendees at the April 2007 Petroleum Institute of Eastern Africa luncheon that the GOK has a package of policy interventions that will ultimately reduce bottlenecks in the energy sector, deepen competition, improve efficiency, and enhance the quality of services. On several occasions he has declared that geothermal is the panacea to Kenya's growing appetite for energy (ref B). -------------- Medium to Long Term Capacity Upgrades -------------- ¶8. (SBU) KenGen predicts that by 2008, supply will be 1,185MW against a peak demand of 1,153MW. To meet growing demand for electricity, KenGen plans the following generation and distribution projects which will add at least 450 MW by 2010: - Development of 70 MW additional capacity at the Olkaria Unit IV geothermal power plant by March 2008; - Purchase of up to 35MW bagasse cogeneration from Mumias Sugar Company and 12MW from OrPower in April 2008; - Agreement with two Independent Power Producers operating in the country to increase their generation capacity by at least 80 MW by June 2008. - Conversion of Kipevu Gas Turbine to Combined Cycle to increase capacity by 40 MW by August 2008; - Elevation of Masinga Dam 1.5 to 2.0 meters to increase output by 90 GWh per year by September 2008; - Expansion of the Tana Power Station to increase its capacity by 20 MW by March 2009; - Installation of a third turbine at Olkaria unit II geothermal plant to increase capacity by 35 MW by April 2010; - Completion of Sangoro hydroelectric project to add 30 MW by April 2010; - Construction of six geothermal wells by Great Wall Drilling Company of China; and, - Agreement with a private developer to produce 30 MW in Kinangop. KenGen is also considering wind generation in the northern city of Marsabit. -------------- Coal May Be Part of Answer -------------- ¶9. (U) Kenya currently imports over 150,000 tons of coal from South Africa every year, used mainly by the Bamburi Cement Company. In early August 2007, the Ministry of Energy (MOE) announced that an analysis of coal deposits obtained from 11 exploratory wells drilled in the swampy Mui Basin of Kitui and Makueni Districts 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nairobi found them comparable to or better than South African coal. Some coal deposits were discovered just 11 meters from the surface. The MOE's projections for Kenya's electricity investment over the next 20 years propose Ksh133 billion (over US$2.0 billion) investment in coal projects to generate an additional 1,000 MW. According to the managing director of the Athi River Mining Company Pradeep Paurana and the MOE's chief geologist Don Riaro, the newfound coal reserves could ensure that Kenya attains full industrial development by 2020. However, it is not yet clear who would fund and develop the coal mines, transportation infrastructure, power plants, and links to the national grid. -------------- Managing Demand to Postpone Shortfalls -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Industry analysts argue that in the short-term KenGen must increase consumer rates to raise Ksh1 billion to lease an emergency 50 MW thermal generator to boost its dwindling power reserve and avoid rationing. Instead, the company has opted to ask the 10 biggest industrial consumers of electricity to switch their production to night shifts, away from the daytime peak demand hours. In return, they would get a rebate of Ksh2 for every unit of electricity consumed. Some consumers, however, claim the Ksh2 rebate is not enough to cover a night shift's higher labor costs. One major Kenyan firm, East Africa Breweries (EABL),said it already runs on a 24-hour basis, but is taking steps to reduce its power consumption over the long term, including producing or capturing biogas to power the plant. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The high cost of power and the uncertainty of supply continue to be major disincentives to both foreign and domestic investment in Kenya. Bottlenecks in fuel refining and transportation send shockwaves along the northern corridor. The GOK understands the need to increase and diversify energy production sources and expand/improve transportation infrastructure, but is distracted by the upcoming election. It's a close race between supply and demand, and Kenya may become a victim of its own success in boosting economic growth and rural electrification faster than it can provide the power. Coal and geothermal do appear to be good alternatives readily available for the taking. But American and other investors, wary of the country's reputation for corruption, crime, and high business costs, remain hesitant to jump in. End comment. RANNEBERGER