AD EXEC ON DISARRAY IN KIBAKI CAMP, EVOLVING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003998

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2017
TAGS: KE PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: AD EXEC ON DISARRAY IN KIBAKI CAMP, EVOLVING
POLITICAL DYNAMICS

REF: NAIROBI 3991 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: PolCouns Andre for reasons 1.4 B & D.


1. (C) Summary: An advertising executive currently working
on the Kibaki campaign describes confusion in the President's
camp. He posits that Kenya's newfound democratic freedoms
have altered the political climate in ways that most of the
country's politicians have failed to notice or adapt to.
While Kenyans may still tend to vote along ethnic lines, they
appear to be less responsive to the dictates of ethnic
barons. Meanwhile, we are hearing from multiple sources that
Kibaki is prepared to leave office should he lose the vote.
He is campaigning, but is rejecting his supporters' calls for
a "no holds barred" approach. End Summary.


2. (C) Andrew White (PROTECT),an Australian advertising
executive for the firm Scan Ad, resident in Kenya since 1980,
described the Kibaki campaign team to PolCouns as
disorganized, divided and uninspired. "They asked me, a
foreigner, what they should tell the voters. They have no
message of their own." He expressed frustration working with
a team that "spends more time fighting over positions among
themselves than concentrating on the job at hand, re-electing
Kibaki." Comment: Kibaki has long been noted for his
laid-back, delegation-heavy style of leadership. We have
heard from multiple sources that Kibaki has expressed to
members of his government his readiness to leave office
should he lose the election. He is campaigning, but has
rejected some of his supporters' calls for a "no holds
barred" approach.


3. (C) White continued that, in contrast to Kibaki,
opposition candidate Raila Odinga "is all about
communication. His organization is professional, slick and
disciplined. Raila never misses an opportunity. But he
strikes me as being better at campaigning than he would be at
running a country." White mentioned that his business
contacts, largely ethnic Kikuyu, all express "horror" at the
prospects of an Odinga victory. This is a familiar song we
often hear sung by our own contcts in big business.


3. (C) In White's view, the old-line politicians are in
disarray because they have failed to understand how Kenya has
changed since Moi left the scene. "Even those like Kibaki
who played a role in bringing democracy to Kenya, cannot
adapt to the positive changes they helped bring about."
White spoke of radio now reaching about 85 percent of the
population and one-quarter of the population having regular
access to television (though not television ownership). "The
quality and diversity of views in the media is much greater
than it was five years ago. This is making a difference.
People are beginning to think for themselves rather than
simply do as they are told by tribal politicians. The
politicians are pushing the same buttons that always worked
in the past, but now the apparatus is not responding: witness
Moi's failure to line up the Kalenjin vote behind Kibaki."


4. (C) Comment: While Kenyans may still tend to vote along
ethnic lines, voters appear to be less responsive to the
dictates of ethnic barons. Aside from the case of Moi cited
by White, much of the Kisii community of Nyanza Province
appears to be rejecting the pro-Kibaki stance of Road
Minister Nyachae. For years, Nyachae has bragged about
"owning" the Kisii. But now it appears that buying off
ethnic barons no longer produces the results it once did.
While having the public support of such leaders is helpful,
it is now necessary to campaign for the support of voters as
well and explain what is in it for them. As regards Nyachae,
we now hear that he has decided to run again for his Nyanza
parliamentary seat, after earlier stating he would retire.
Given his readiness to use violence, the race is likely to be
hot.


5. (C) We note that in Kenya's past three multiparty
elections, the picture did not come into focus until about
one month out from the election. Parliament has not yet
dissolved. The official campaign has not yet begun. We
expect a few waves of defections from both camps, especially
over the contentious issue (for politicians) of who gets

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party nominations to compete for Kenya's highly lucrative
parliamentary seats. Far from being over, the presidential
race has not yet truly begun.


RANNEBERGER