AD EXEC ON DISARRAY IN KIBAKI CAMP, EVOLVING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003998 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2017 TAGS: KE PGOV PHUM SUBJECT: AD EXEC ON DISARRAY IN KIBAKI CAMP, EVOLVING POLITICAL DYNAMICS REF: NAIROBI 3991 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: PolCouns Andre for reasons 1.4 B & D. ¶1. (C) Summary: An advertising executive currently working on the Kibaki campaign describes confusion in the President's camp. He posits that Kenya's newfound democratic freedoms have altered the political climate in ways that most of the country's politicians have failed to notice or adapt to. While Kenyans may still tend to vote along ethnic lines, they appear to be less responsive to the dictates of ethnic barons. Meanwhile, we are hearing from multiple sources that Kibaki is prepared to leave office should he lose the vote. He is campaigning, but is rejecting his supporters' calls for a "no holds barred" approach. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Andrew White (PROTECT),an Australian advertising executive for the firm Scan Ad, resident in Kenya since 1980, described the Kibaki campaign team to PolCouns as disorganized, divided and uninspired. "They asked me, a foreigner, what they should tell the voters. They have no message of their own." He expressed frustration working with a team that "spends more time fighting over positions among themselves than concentrating on the job at hand, re-electing Kibaki." Comment: Kibaki has long been noted for his laid-back, delegation-heavy style of leadership. We have heard from multiple sources that Kibaki has expressed to members of his government his readiness to leave office should he lose the election. He is campaigning, but has rejected some of his supporters' calls for a "no holds barred" approach. ¶3. (C) White continued that, in contrast to Kibaki, opposition candidate Raila Odinga "is all about communication. His organization is professional, slick and disciplined. Raila never misses an opportunity. But he strikes me as being better at campaigning than he would be at running a country." White mentioned that his business contacts, largely ethnic Kikuyu, all express "horror" at the prospects of an Odinga victory. This is a familiar song we often hear sung by our own contcts in big business. ¶3. (C) In White's view, the old-line politicians are in disarray because they have failed to understand how Kenya has changed since Moi left the scene. "Even those like Kibaki who played a role in bringing democracy to Kenya, cannot adapt to the positive changes they helped bring about." White spoke of radio now reaching about 85 percent of the population and one-quarter of the population having regular access to television (though not television ownership). "The quality and diversity of views in the media is much greater than it was five years ago. This is making a difference. People are beginning to think for themselves rather than simply do as they are told by tribal politicians. The politicians are pushing the same buttons that always worked in the past, but now the apparatus is not responding: witness Moi's failure to line up the Kalenjin vote behind Kibaki." ¶4. (C) Comment: While Kenyans may still tend to vote along ethnic lines, voters appear to be less responsive to the dictates of ethnic barons. Aside from the case of Moi cited by White, much of the Kisii community of Nyanza Province appears to be rejecting the pro-Kibaki stance of Road Minister Nyachae. For years, Nyachae has bragged about "owning" the Kisii. But now it appears that buying off ethnic barons no longer produces the results it once did. While having the public support of such leaders is helpful, it is now necessary to campaign for the support of voters as well and explain what is in it for them. As regards Nyachae, we now hear that he has decided to run again for his Nyanza parliamentary seat, after earlier stating he would retire. Given his readiness to use violence, the race is likely to be hot. ¶5. (C) We note that in Kenya's past three multiparty elections, the picture did not come into focus until about one month out from the election. Parliament has not yet dissolved. The official campaign has not yet begun. We expect a few waves of defections from both camps, especially over the contentious issue (for politicians) of who gets NAIROBI 00003998 002 OF 002 party nominations to compete for Kenya's highly lucrative parliamentary seats. Far from being over, the presidential race has not yet truly begun. RANNEBERGER