Somalia - Tour d'horizon with Minister Hurreh

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 003992

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET
SUBJECT: Somalia - Tour d'horizon with Minister Hurreh

Classified by Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger for Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Minister of Education
Ismael Hurreh told the Ambassador October 3 that on or about October
12 the government of Prime Minister Gedi will be dissolved by
Parliament. There is no leading candidate to replace Gedi. End
Summary.

--------------
Replacement of Prime Minister
--------------


2. (C) Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Minister of Education
Ismael Hurreh told the Ambassador October 3 that on or about October
12 the government of Prime Minister Gedi will be dissolved by
Parliament. Hurreh said the President and Parliament are both
adamant that Gedi be dismissed. There is no leading candidate to
replace Gedi. MPs will play an active role in the selection process
for a new PM. Hurreh claimed Bashir Raghe, who is from the same sub
sub clan as Gedi (Hawiye/Harti/Warsengeli),told him it is time for
Gedi to go. Hurreh claims that even MPs who have been taking money
from Gedi are prepared to let him go. Hurreh believes Gedi's record
is so poor that parliament will vote him out regardless of whatever
inducements Gedi may devise.

--------------
Ethiopian Views
--------------


3. (C) Hurreh, who had just come from Addis Ababa, said Ethiopia was
"jittery" on the issue of removing Gedi. According to Hurreh, the
GOE is looking for direction from the USG. "It has to be right with
America," he said. He claims his Ethiopian interlocutors said they
"don't know" if removing Gedi will increase instability and delay
further the transitional process, and that they have also told this
to the USG. He opined that he hoped the Ethiopians won't "back out"
of what otherwise is a broad consensus within Somalia to replace
Gedi. The Ambassador remarked that out position is that the choice
of prime minister is up to Yusuf, and the people of Somalia, and that
any change should be in accordance with the Charter and contribute to
stability.

--------------
Asmara Group
--------------


4. (C) Hurreh met recently with Mohamed Hassan Ali Daryeel, the
former Secretary General of the Transitional Federal Parliament
(effectively Chief of Staff to the Speaker),who he said was sent to
meet with him by former Speaker Sharif Hassan. Hurreh's purpose was
to inform the former MPs now based in Asmara that Gedi will soon be
removed as prime minister. Daryeel reportedly indicated that removal
of Gedi would change the dynamics such that there may then be a basis
for serious dialogue between the former MPs and the TFG. Hurreh was
eager to promote this dialogue.

--------------
Rosy Scenario
--------------


5. (C) According to Hurreh, President Yusuf told him "it was time to
move to the national level." Hurreh presented this statement as
evidence that Yusuf wants to move beyond the narrow confines of
traditional clan considerations (for example, that the PM must be a
Hawiye/Abgal),and that the President now wants to move forward with
the transition. Hurreh noted that October 12 marks the mid point in
the five year transitional process. A new government can make a
fresh start on rapid implementation of the transitional tasks.


6. (C) Hurreh said if Gedi is removed, the Parliament passes a law on
political parties, and there is quick progress on a draft
constitution, then the TFG will attract broad support and move the
transition forward significantly. Hurreh expects Parliament to
address a package of issues. (Comment: Presumably to include
amending the Charter to allow non-MPs to serve as government
ministers, a key recommendation of the National Reconciliation
Congress. End Comment).


7. (C) Hurreh, who is still trying to position himself as a candidate
for Prime Minister, conceded that if the Hawiye are to retain the
portfolio, then the position must go to an Abgal. However, he was
very dismissive of the prospect of Ali Mahdi as prime minister.
Hurreh blamed the breakaway of Somaliland on Mahdi, and said there

NAIROBI 00003992 002.2 OF 003


would be a very negative reaction from among the Haber Gedir.
Appointment of Mahdi would also not be supported by intellectuals and
the diaspora.


8. (C) Citing the appointment as Ambassador to Kuwait of a
"youngster" with no experience, who is a nephew of the President's
wife, Hurreh averred that Yusuf's appointments of late appear to be
based solely on clan and family considerations. If appointed Prime
Minister Hurreh believes that as a northerner he would be able to
pull Somaliland back into the fold, and unify the clans. According
to Hurreh, the desire for recognition of independence in Somaliland
has faded. (Comment: Hurreh likely is alone with this view. End
Comment). The Ambassador, noting the opportunity presented by a
change in government, asked Hurreh to keep us informed should Yusuf
appear to be headed to a misguided appointment.

--------------
Kismayo
--------------


9. (C) While he voiced respect for Yusuf's military background and
abilities, Hurreh declared Yusuf is "politically wrong on Kismayo."
The problem in Kismayo is a political one over the control of
resources. Military solutions will not work. Rather, a solution is
possible through dialogue and negotiation between the Marehan and
Majerteen sub-clans of the Darod. Hurreh believes that the Prime
Minister should have taken the lead on Kismayo. The lack of
leadership from the Prime Minister to address the administrative
concerns of the Marehan and Majerteen left the President to seek
military solutions, which have not worked.


10. (C) Hurreh noted that "all the contenders for power in Kismayo
are from clans in the minority in the region." Almost all of
Somalia's clans are represented in the Juba regions, but no one clan
is in the majority. Because of the clan makeup of the region Hurreh
believes that lower and middle Juba could serve as a model for the
country. Clan reconciliation in this part of the country could then
serve to consolidate further reconciliation gains in the rest of the
country. (Comment: Again, Hurreh was implicitly making the point
that as Prime Minister he would set up an administrative structure
that would solve the Marehan/Majerteen power struggle in Kismayo and
bring peace to region. End Comment).

--------------
Violent Opposition
--------------


11. (C) Hurreh claimed those involved in violent anti-government
activities are not many, but are well-funded. Most are in Mogadishu,
while some court remnants remain in lower Juba, and there is a "cell"
in Puntland. Their logistics capacity is not much, according to
Hurreh, and their movement and strength relies mainly on the weakness
of the government. However, he claimed there has been an infusion of
logistical support and cash, particularly after the Asmara
conference. He said Hassan Dahir Aweys is being challenged by
several factions, and Mukhtar Ibrahim Robow, former Deputy Chief of
Security for the Islamic Courts, is "restive." He believes a new
young leadership is trying to emerge from among the remnants of the
former Islamic Courts.

--------------
Somaliland and Puntland
--------------


12. (C) Hurreh cautioned that the current standoff between Somaliland
and Puntland over Las Anod is dangerous, and could erupt. He
reviewed the history of the dispute as an intra-clan conflict aong
the Dhulbahante, going back to changing allegiances among sub-clan
members with either the British or Italians. Containing the problem
is very important, but Hurreh advised that an effective resolution
will come by working through the Dhulbahante rather than either
Somaliland or Puntland authorities. However, Hurreh reported that he
spoke with authorities in Hargeysa about the situation, and he urged
President Yusuf to promote a peaceful resolution. He did not name
names, but added that "some very prominent and influential
Dhulbahante people" who could be useful are in Washington.

--------------
Comment
--------------


13. (C) An engaging conversationalist (whose sociability is enhanced
by his willingness to imbibe a cold beer) with access to certain
insider information, we always keep in mind Hurreh's antipathy for
Gedi and proclivity for self-promotion. Nonetheless, many of his
observations jibe with much of the conventional wisdom on what is
transpiring within the TFG and Somalia at the moment. End Comment.


NAIROBI 00003992 003 OF 003


RANNEBERGER