KENYA ELECTIONS: PROJECTED VOTERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003897 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KE PGOV PHUM SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: PROJECTED VOTERS REF: NAIROBI 3609 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Using recent and historic voter registration, voter turnout and population data, we have projected likely voters by region and ethnic community. Kibaki's Kikuyu/Meru/Embu base accounts for at least 30 percent of projected voters. Raila Odinga's Luo base and Maasai/Samburu allies account for 15 percent of projected voters. The Kalenjin and Luhya communities, who both sides are courting intensely, account for 17 and 10 percent of projected voters respectively. An Odinga victory would require a collapse of Moi's influence among the Kalenjin (Moi supports Kibaki) and a united Luhya vote against fellow Bantu Kibaki (the Luhya consist of 16 distinct groups that historically have formed diverse political alliances). Odinga has a track record as a brilliant campaign tactician, but overcoming Kenya's traditional ethnic political alignments will be a tall order. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) An analysis of raw voter registration data from the Electoral Commission of Kenya as of 28 May 2007, of voter turnout data from the November 2005 draft constitution referendum and of data extrapolated from the 1999 census reveals the following insights: Projected Voters: Kibaki Camp: Kikuyu/Embu/Meru: 30 percent of projected voters. Odinga Camp: Luo: 12 percent, Maasai/Samburu: 3 percent. Musyoka Camp: Kamba: 8 percent. Swing Votes: Kalenjin & Turkana: 17 percent; Luhya: 10 percent, Kisii & Kuria: 4 percent, Mijikenda: 3 percent, Somali: 1 percent. Mixed constituencies & others: 13 percent. Turnout Rates per 11/2005: Kibaki Camp: Kikuyu/Embu/Meru: 60 percent turnout. Odinga Camp: Luo: 65 percent, Maasai/Samburu: 60 percent. Musyoka Camp: Kamba: 51 percent. Swing Votes: Kalenjin & Turkana: 70 percent; Luhya: 47 percent, Kisii & Kuria: 43 percent, Mijikenda: 35 percent, Somali: 24 percent. Mixed constituencies: 44 percent. Registered Voters as Share of Voting Age Population: Densely populated Central and Western provinces have the highest rates of registered voters. Underpopulated, remote and infrastructure-starved Northeast province has the lowest rate. (Note: Only relative rates are available as the population data is based on an unreliable extrapolation of 1999 census data. End Note.) Comment: Actual Voters Decide Elections -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The 2005 referendum on the draft constitution was a hard fought, high profile campaign. The level of turnout in that exercise should approximate turnout in this year's presidential and parliamentary contest. High voter registration rates in the president's home province (Central) and the Vice-President's home province (Western) are reasonable given the population density of those regions and the relatively good road networks found there. Conversely, low population density and poor to non-existent road networks explain the relatively low voter registration figures and exceptionally low voter turnout figures from Northeast province. Traditional attitudes of alienation from the central government may also account for these figures in ethnic Somali Northeastern Province. The Kalenjin had the NAIROBI 00003897 002 OF 002 highest rate of voter turnout in 2005 due to their history of intense political mobilization during the Moi era. These rates may wane this year as Moi's influence lessens. ¶4. (SBU) The battleground for this election will be the Kalenjin districts of Rift Valley Province, ethnic Luhya Western Province and Coast Province. At some point in the campaign, Musyoka may offer up his ethnic-Kamba supporters (8 percent of projected voters) to the highest bidder, although given Kibaki's high poll numbers and Odinga's low poll numbers in Kambaland, a Musyoka/Odinga alliance would be a hard sell. ¶5. (SBU) In light of the recent spate of contradictory public opinion polls on the presidential race, it is useful to recall that actual voters determine the outcome of elections, hence the attempt here to project the ethnic identities of likely voters given available data. An Odinga victory would require a collapse of Moi's influence among the Kalenjin (Moi supports Kibaki) and a united Luhya vote against fellow Bantu Kibaki (the Luhya consist of 16 distinct groups that historically have formed diverse political alliances). Odinga has a track record as a brilliant campaign tactician, and he has widespread anti-Kikuyu resentment on his side, but overcoming Kenya's traditional ethnic political alignments will be a tall order. RANNEBERGER