Somalia: Gedi/Yusuf Tensions Intensify

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003795

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET
SUBJECT: Somalia: Gedi/Yusuf Tensions Intensify

Ref: Nairobi 3664

Classified by Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger for Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Arrests, detentions, and firings marked the latest
developments in the growing tension between Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime Minister Ali
Gedi as dividing lines are reportedly being drawn in Mogadishu. An
Ethiopian intervention may in the works, we are told. The Ambassador
and Special Envoy will reach out to both Gedi and Yusuf to urge
restraint, respect for the Transitional Federal Charter, and focus on
the transitional tasks at hand. End Summary.

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Arrest of Chief Justice
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2. (C) The Chief Justice of the TFG Supreme Court, Yusuf Ali Harun
(Dir/Issa) and his deputy, Justice Mohamed Nur, were arrested and
detained on various charges, allegedly including corruption and
embezzlement, early on September 22. The arrest of the Chief
Justice, a long time close associate of TFG President Abdullahi
Yusuf, took many by surprise. Yusuf allegedly order the arrests
because Harun had refused to arrest Gedi over the disappearance of
millions of dollars recently given to the TFG by Saudi Arabia. Gedi
presumably converted the Chief Justice to his side, which lead the
President to arrest and detain the Chief Justice.

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Firing of Attorney General
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3. (C) In a tit-for-tat move, the Prime Minister removed the Attorney
General and his deputy who had carried out the President's orders to
arrest the Chief Justice. Having already consolidated support within
his sub sub clan (the Warsangeli),the Prime Minister is reported to
have met September 23 with Abgal traditional leaders and elders to
gain broader clan support. Gedi reportedly admitted past mistakes
and shortcomings and asked the clan to rally around his leadership.
Abgal senior leaders agreed to do so, and they met on September 24
with President Yusuf to press for retention of Gedi as Prime
Minister. The President listened but provided no assurances to the
Abgal. However, among his grievances against Gedi were poor
performance and misappropriation of funding.

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Mediation
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4. (C) Gedi also met late into the night of September 23 with General
Gabre, the Ethiopian "proconsul" for Somalia resident in Mogadishu,
and General Darawish, Yusuf's fellow clansman and Chief of Security,
to broker some sort of agreement or truce between the two competing
factions. We are not aware of the outcome of this meeting. We are
told there are indications Mogadishu is being divided along a "green
line." Darood/Majerteen and others aligned with the President are
moving out of the area of the Global Hotel toward the Villa Somalia.
TFG forces allegedly are distancing themselves from Abgal
neighborhoods. Gedi went to Baidoa on September 23 and Yusuf was
reportedly going to Baidoa on September 24. The assumption of many
was that they were being convoked for a meeting with an unnamed
high-level Ethiopian official or officials in order to bridge the
divide between the two.

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Charter Deadlines
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5. (C) Tensions between Yusuf and Gedi are coming to a head in part
because of looming dates stemming from the Transitional Federal
Charter (TFC). The Charter says that the government has two and a
half years in which to draft a constitution and commence with
federation of the country. Yusuf claims that date will be reached
on November 12, and he and his staff have been signaling for some
time they intend to get rid of Gedi. Others have moved the date for
announced change in government even closer. The Somalia Ambassador
to KENYA Mohamed Ali Nur ("Americo"),a close relative and ally of
Gedi, told us that Yusuf intends to remove Gedi on October 12 or
sooner (Reftel). UNDP has noted that October 4 will mark the end of
Yusuf's third year in power, and he may use the occasion to announce
a change in government for the remaining two years of the transition.
Gedi, on the other hand, views the requirements of the Charter quite
differently. According to Gedi's calculations the Parliament

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approved the list of the constitutional commission only after the
Parliament to Baidoa in May 2006, and therefore Gedi is arguing he
has until October or November 2008 to produce results.

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Comment and Actions
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6. (C) We do not discount the possibility that factional infighting
and raw calculations over power and money (in addition to the Saudi
money, a petroleum bill before Parliament is a particular source of
tension) may ultimately lead directly to open conflict between forces
aligned to Yusuf and Gedi. Yusuf may try to remove Gedi and Gedi may
not go willingly. However, our understanding of the Ethiopian
intentions is that Gedi and Yusuf both remain "their men." Ethiopian
Prime Minister Meles has longstanding ties with both men, and in the
case of Gedi familial bonds, that they would not be willing or able
to replace easily. Consequently, we view it more likely that
Ethiopia will force a truce between the two, just as Foreign Minister
Seyoum did in November 2006 with the tripartite agreement in Baidoa
between Yusuf, Gedi, and then Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheihk Aden.


7. (C) As reported in Reftel, we will continue to press Gedi and
Yusuf to work cooperatively to build on the remaining momentum from
the National Reconciliation Congress and direct their attentions to
the transition. We are making clear in no uncertain terms that
intra-governmental violence and extremism is just as
counterproductive as such forces directed against the TFG, and that
it is neither in Gedi's nor Yusuf's personal interest to play
brinksmanship while the transitional process demands their full
attention. Special Envoy Yates, who is in Addis Ababa September
24-27 to press these points with the GOE, has not cleared on this
message.
RANNEBERGER