KENYA ELECTIONS: LIKELY TIMELINE

UNCLAS NAIROBI 003790 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - FORMATTING CHANGES SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM KE PGOV PHUM SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: LIKELY TIMELINE REF: NAIROBI 3761 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Our best information at this point indicates dissolution of parliament in early October and an election date of Monday, 17 December. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Reftel provides information on violence-prone constituencies and references for previous election-related messages. ¶3. (SBU) Our best information at this time indicates the following schedule of events: 29 September: Formal Campaign Launch of ODM Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga 30 September: Formal Campaign Launch of PANU Presidential Candidate Mwai Kibaki These two events should include unveiling of selection timelines and methodologies for determining parliamentary candidates for the two parties. ODM-K (Kalonzo Musyoka) has already begun its candidate selection process. The candidate selection process will be highly contentious, straining the internal unity of all three parties. Early October: Likely Date of Dissolution of Parliament Mid-October: Official Beginning of Parliamentary and Presidential Campaigns. The Speaker of Parliament has two weeks after the President announces the dissolution of Parliament to declare seats vacant. We understand he is likely to take the entire two-week period. Once the Speaker proclaims the seats vacant, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) determines and announces the election date and so starts the official campaign period. The election date must be between 49 and 90 days after parliament dissolves. Parties must provide the names of their candidates to the ECK no later than 27 days after the official announcement of the election date. The ECK has very limited authority until the official campaign season begins. At that point, the ECK has control over resources and a dedicated police force, as well as legal powers to sanction wayward candidates. Mid-November: Fixing of Ballot Papers. Any last minute electoral alliances, as occurred in 2002, must be accomplished and registered prior to printing of ballots. The names of all parliamentary candidates and the party symbols must be determined at least one month prior to the election date to allow for printing and distribution of ballots. 17 December: Likely Election Date Our information indicates that the election date will occur after 12 December, Kenya's National Day, and before the Christmas holidays. Past practice is for elections to occur on Mondays, hence our conjecture tha the date will be Monday, 17 December. RANNEBERGER