KENYA ELECTIONS: ONE-THIRD OF CONSTITUENCIES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NAIROBI 003761 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC KDEM KE PGOV PHUM SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: ONE-THIRD OF CONSTITUENCIES VIOLENCE PRONE REF: A. NAIROBI 00321 ¶B. NAIROBI 02215 ¶C. 06 NAIROBI 05112 ¶D. 06 NAIROBI 05393 ¶E. NAIROBI 03677 ¶F. NAIROBI 01669 ¶G. NAIROBI 03676 ¶H. NAIROBI 03675 ¶1. (SBU) Summary & Introduction: Kenya's first two multiparty elections, in '92 and '97, were marred by widespread violence, most of it organized by the government. The 2002 election was much less violent and the November 2005 referendum was even less violent. This year, we predict little organized violence directed from the top, but we do foresee local-level zealots eager to curry favor with their patrons engaging in intimidation of political rivals for parliamentary contests. Some parliamentary candidates will employ violent gangs to intimidate voters and election officials. Areas suffering from chronic tensions unrelated to the elections (farmer vs. pastoralist, for example) may see violence erupt under the added strain of the campaigns. At the parliamentary level, stakes are particularly high this election cycle. Polling data and the views of experienced political observers indicate that the great majority of sitting MPs will likely be voted out. ¶2. (SBU) This message lists the constituencies we consider most violence-prone. Out of Kenya's 210 constituencies, 67 constituencies (about one-third) qualify as "hot spots." Overall we predict a level of violence somewhat greater than in 2002, but well under the level of violence in '97 and '92. The Mission is vigorously pursuing public diplomacy and private advocacy initiatives to urge peaceful conduct of the campaigns. End Summary & Introduction. Nairobi: Five "Hot Constituencies" out of Eight -------------- -- ¶3. (SBU) Five of Nairobi's eight constituencies are violence prone. In some instances, as noted below, this is due to Kikuyu/Luo political rivalry (ref A). -- Makadara: The constituency is held by a pro-Raila Odinga Member of Parliament (MP). All major Kenyan ethnic groups are well represented. It is a political toss-up, and so will be hotly contested by all sides. -- Westlands: Currently held by Fred Gumo (ethnic Luhya), pro-Raila Odinga. Gumo is notorious for employing a violent political militia that engages in intimidation of opponents and in extortion, targeting Asian shopkeepers. The constituency is composed of Luhya (plurality),Kikuyu and Asians. -- Kasarani: An ethnically mixed constituency with Luos and Kikuyus in equal numbers. The seat is held by a pro-Raila Odinga Luo MP. Kibaki supporters will make a vigorous attempt to unseat him. The bitter Luo/Kikuyu rivalry will figure in this contest. The Mungiki criminal organization (ref B) has a strong presence in the constituency based on the Mathare slum (predominately Kikuyu). -- Langata: Overwhelmingly Luo and very pro-Raila Odinga. This constituency includes Kibera, reputedly Africa's largest slum. Odinga will likely win, but over-zealous Kibaki supporters may instigate violence to discredit Raila. Such efforts would be led by "reformed" Mungiki leader Ndura Waruinge (ref c) and ethnic Luhya NARC-K activist Stanley Livondo (notorious for ostentatiously distributing money to the public). Both the Odinga and Kibaki camps include armed "security." -- Embakasi: Overwhelmingly GEMA (Kikuyu/Embu/Meru, close ethnic/political allies, see ref d). Features a fierce political rivalry between two pro-Kibaki politicians, both known for using political violence. Central: Intra-Mural Fights Among Kibaki Supporters NAIROBI 00003761 002 OF 005 -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Central Province is overwhelmingly Kikuyu. Kibaki scored 84 percent support in his native Central Province in the latest credible candidate preference poll. However, we expect some violence among Kibaki supporters competing for nominations from pro-Kibaki parties in 11 of the province's 29 constituencies. Some pro-Kibaki parties may run parliamentary candidates against one another. General consensus holds that it would be both pointless and dangerous for Odinga supporters to campaign for their candidate in this region. -- Nyandarua District/Ol Kalou Constituency: Serving MP is known to use violent tactics against rivals. -- Nyeri District/Mathira: Battle of the titans: three very wealthy business/political leaders in a no-holds-barred contest. -- Nyeri District/Nyeri Town: There have already been violent incidents among competing factions. -- Kirinyaga District/Ndia: A history of political violence. -- Murang'a District/Kangema, Mathioya & Kiharu constituencies: The entire district is Mungiki infested. Mungiki rent out "muscle" to politicians. -- Thika District/Juja: A history of political violence. -- Kiambu/Githunguri: At 75 and rising, the highest number of contestants for MP in the country (so far). -- Kiambu/Kabete: MP Paul Muite, while a Kibaki supporter, has seriously annoyed the powerful Internal Security, Justice and Defense ministers, all from Central Province, all pro-Kibaki. He is considered a "marked man." -- Kiambu/Kiambaa: Strong Mungiki presence, a very wealthy candidate, proximity to Nairobi. Coast Province: Underlying Tensions -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Coast Province is hotly disputed political territory. The region suffers from severe underlying tensions. All three presidential candidates have significant support in the province. Five of 21 constituencies are violence prone, including all four Mombasa constituencies. -- Mombasa/Chamgamwe: Ethnically and religiously mixed neighborhod of Mombasa, including many Kambas (pro-Musyoka). A political toss up among the three presidential candidates (Odinga, Kibaki & Musyoka). -- Mombasa/Kisauni: The Mijikenda ethnic group consist of nine distinct coastal Bantu communities. They are not united politically. Kisauni is predominately Mijikenda, split into pro-Odinga and pro-Kibaki camps, but also includes Odinga-leaning Swahilis and Arabs. -- Mombasa/Likoni: This constituency has suffered severe ethnic and political violence in the past between coastals and "upcountry" communities. The indigenous coastal community greatly resents loss of land to those coming from outside the province. There are also significant numbers of Luo and Luhya dockworkers and Kamba (pro-Musyoka) traders and tourist industry workers. -- Mombasa/Mvita: Two Kenyan Arabs, both of Yemeni origin, are fierce political rivals. MP Balala supports Odinga. Former Mombasa Mayor Taib is close to Musyoka, but as a prominent KANU member, he supports Kibaki in line with the directives of KANU leadership. -- Garsen/Tana River: Two strong political personalities contest this seat; one representing the Orma and the other representing the Pokomo. The constituency also suffers from NAIROBI 00003761 003 OF 005 pastoralist vs. farmer tensions. It has suffered ethnic and political violence in the recent past. Northeastern: No Longer a Bloc Vote -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Only three of Northeastern Province's 11 constituencies are violence prone. The province is almost entirely Somali Muslim. In the past, Somali Kenyans voted as a bloc in favor of KANU (the former ruling party). Recent polling data and the expressed views of prominent Somali political leaders indicate that this year the Somalis are split between pro-Kibaki and pro-Odinga factions. -- Wajir South: Two Ogadeni sub-clans, one pro-Odinga and the other pro-Kibaki. -- Mandera Central: Two Somali clans contesting leadership of the constituency. -- Dujis: While largely Somali, there are significant Kikuyu and Kamba communities. History of political violence. Eastern: Borana Land, Kamba Land & Meru/Embu Land -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Eastern Province runs from the Ethiopian border to the slopes of Mount Kenya and on south almost to the Tanzanian border. We consider 14 out of the province's 35 constituencies to be violence-prone. ¶8. (SBU) Eastern Province incorporates three very distinct zones. The northernmost districts are home to the Borana (or Oromos, as they are called in Ethiopia). This region is very poor, largely pastoralist, infrastructure-starved and plagued by communal conflict, principally between the closely related Gabra and Borana. Traditionally, the Borana support the government of the day on the basis that "we are too poor to play opposition politics." Further south, on the slopes of Mount Kenya are the Embu and Meru communities. Both have close socio-linguistic linkages to the neighboring Kikuyu, and have always voted in alliance with them. The region is strongly pro-Kibaki. Still further south is Kamba land. The Kamba have Bantu linguistic ties to the Kikuyu and a long trading relationship linking the coast to the Kikuyu/Meru/Embu highlands. Kambas largely support native son Kalonzo Musyoka for President. Borana land: Underlying Tensions -- Moyale, North Horr & Saku: Gabra/Borana conflict, always on simmer, may boil over with election tensions. -- Laisamis: Tensions between pastoralists and farmers; indigenous versus "outsider." -- Isiolo North, Isiolo South: Borana/Somali/Meru mix. Competition at parliamentary level. Embu/Meru land: Pro-Kibaki -- Meru North/Igembe & Ntonyiri: Clashes between Meru clans. -- North Imenti: Already experienced political violence among Kibaki supporters. -- Central Imenti: Clashes between Meru clans. -- Tharaka: Clashes between Meru clans. -- Gachoka: Mbeere (Embu clan) versus Kamba in a mixed constituency. Kibaki supporters versus Musyoka supporters. Kamba land: Pro-Musyoka -- Makueni/Mbooni & Kibwezi: Two Kamba ministers in the Kibaki government may use their supporters to disrupt pro-Kalonzo Musyoka events. NAIROBI 00003761 004 OF 005 Nyanza: Raila Country, Mostly -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Nyanza is home to the Luo community (Nilotic socio-linguistic group, 63 percent of Nyanza registered voters),loyal to native son Raila Odinga. The province also includes the Kisii and Kuria communities (Bantu socio-linguistic group, 36 percent of Nyanza registered voters),who often vote in opposition to the Luo. General consensus holds that it would be both pointless and dangerous for Kibaki supporters to campaign for their candidate in the Luo region of Nyanza. We consider four of the province's 32 constituencies to be violence-prone. -- Rarieda: The current MP and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Raphael Tuju, is the most prominent ethnic Luo politician in the province who is not a Raila supporter. He is the chairman of NARC-Kenya (pro-Kibaki party) and now supports the President,s new political coalition (Party of National Unity, ref e). -- Kitutu Chache & West Mugirango: These predominately Kisii constituencies will feature contests between Kibaki and Odinga supporters. -- Kuria: Pre-exsiting tensions among Kuria clans, and between the Kuria and their Maasai neighbors, may lead to violence during the election. Kuria are likely to vote for pro-Kibaki candidates while the Maasai are likely to support Odinga. Western: Mixed Constituencies & Intra-Luhya Tensions -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Five of the twenty-four constituencies in Western Province are prone to violence. The province is dominated by the Luhya, a name given to a collection of 16 Bantu communities which speak different languages, practice different customs and have different political orientations. "Luhya Unity" is a concept more spoken of than practiced. -- Lugari: Land settlement scheme provokes tension among several competing groups. MP candidate Cyrus Jirongo is known as a corrupt practitioner of coercive politics. -- Lurambi: A mixed constituency which includes provincial capital Kakamega, Lurambi is historically violence-prone. In 2002, a crowd stoned the President,s motorcade. During the 2005 referendum, pro-draft constitution campaigners were run out of town. -- Mt. Elgon: The Ndorobo and Soy clans (Kalenjins) are fighting over land on the slopes of an extinct volcano on the Ugandan border. Ethnic Luhya farmers are caught in the crossfire. -- Nambale: Similar to Kakamega, it is a very mixed area. There is tension between the Luhya tribe (Bantu) and Teso tribe (Nilotic) and among the various Luhya groups. -- Funyula: The Vice-President comes from Funyula, which he has represented since 1983. He will campaign for Kibaki in a largely anti-Kibaki area whose voters rejected the government's draft constitution in the 2005 referendum. Julia Ojiambo, the ODM-K (Kalonzo Musyoka) candidate for Vice President, will contest this constituency. Rift Valley: Pastoralist/Farmer, Indigenous/Outsider -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) At 23 percent, Rift Valley has the largest share of registered voters among the eight provinces. It is made up of four zones. The southernmost region consists of game parks and Maasai Land. The central-east region consists of Samburu herders and (mostly) Kikuyu farmers. The central region is occupied by the Kalenjin (Nilotic, made up of seven distinct tribes) and Kikuyu (considered "outsiders" by many Kalenjin). The northernmost zone consists of very sparsely populated (and politically irrelevant) Turkana and Pokot NAIROBI 00003761 005 OF 005 (Kalenjin) constituencies. We consider 20 of the province's 50 constituencies to be violence-prone. -- Kapenguria: Very mixed constituency of "outsiders" and resentful "locals." The outsiders (mostly Kikuyu) will likely support Kibaki while the indigenous population (Kalenjin) will likely vote for Odinga. -- Kwanza & Saboti: Kalenjin and Luhya mixed constituencies. Chronic land disputes. -- Cherangany: The MP, who is also Minister of Agriculture, is pro-Kibaki. He will face tough competition from a pro-Odinga candidate. -- Eldoret North: MP William Ruto, the top pro-Odinga leader among the Kalenjin, will contest his constituency against a Moi-backed KANU candidate (KANU is allied with Kibaki). Neither side will shy away from using violence. -- Keiyo South: Corrupt, brutal and ruthless longtime MP Nicholas Biwot's constituency. He will use all means to defeat his perennial adversary, former Ambassador to South Africa Tabitha Seii. She is a recent Odinga recruit from the Kibaki camp. -- Bomet & Buret: A complicated brew of pro-Kibaki indigenous Kalenjins, & Luhya tea estate laborers against pro-Odinga indigenous Kalenjins, and their Luhya and Luo tea estate laborer allies. -- Eldama Ravine: "Indigenous" (Kalenjin, pro-Odinga) versus "Outsiders" (Kikuyus & other Bantus, pro-Kibaki). -- Laikipia West & Laikipia East: A history of violent conflict between farmers (mostly pro-Kibaki Kikuyus) and pastoralists (pro-Odinga Maasai and Samburu). Farmers are in the clear majority. -- Naivasha: Pastoralist/Farmer conflict between pro-Odinga Maasai and pro-Kibaki Kikuyu. Kikuyu are in the majority. -- Nakuru District/Naivasha, Nakuru Town, Kuresoi, Molo, Rongai and Subukia constituencies: Predominantly Kikuyu (pro-Kibaki),but significant pro-Odinga population, mainly Kalenjin but also Luo and Luhya. -- Kilgoris: Violence between Maasai and those they perceive as outsiders (mainly pro-Kibaki Kikuyu and Kisii). -- Kajiado North: Education Minister (and alleged Goldenberg scandal culprit) Professor George Saitoti's constituency. He is likely to be the sole pro-Kibaki candidate, backed by the large Kikuyu community settling in the formerly rural, traditionally Maasai northern edge of the constituency, which is now in Nairobi's exurbs. He will be opposed by a Maasai pro-Odinga candidate. Saitoti claims Maasai heritage, but he is widely considered to be Kikuyu. USG Efforts to Promote Peaceful Campaigns -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The Mission is funding voter education campaigns and strengthening Peace Committees throughout Kenya (ref f). Political tolerance and ethnic harmony are themes that often feature in the Ambassador's speeches (refs g and h) and press statements, which are then routinely picked up and echoed in the media. The Ambassador and members of his country team also communicate the message of zero tolerance for electoral violence to leaders in politics and government at the highest levels as well as at the grassroots levels throughout the country. RANNEBERGER