KENYA ELECTIONS: PRESUMPTIVE ETHNIC ALIGNMENTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003581 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KE PGOV PHUM SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: PRESUMPTIVE ETHNIC ALIGNMENTS REF: A. ANDRE/AF-E EMAIL DATED 07SEP07 ¶B. 06 NAIROBI 5393 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Analysis of raw voter registration data reveals the approximate ethnic composition of the electorate, which differs somewhat from that of the general population. Given current ethnic voting bloc political alignments and assuming no major disparities in voter turnout, this data implies that the campaign season will open with President Mwai Kibaki favored by 52 percent of the electorate, Raila Odinga favored by 27 percent, and Kalonzo Musyoka favored by 9 percent. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The U.S. Mission obtained raw voter registration data from the Electoral Commission of Kenya as of 28 May 2007 (Ref A). Our analysis of the data (Ref A) provides the following ethnic portrait of the Kenyan electorate. Septels will examine gender and religious identification aspects of the electorate as well as implications for the future composition of parliament. Share of Electorate of Ethnic Voting Blocs -------------- ¶3. (SBU) While this Mission and Kenyan civil society leaders warn Kenyan voters of the ills from ethnic bloc voting, the reality is that Kenyan politics continues to revolve around ethic identity rather than issues or the probity of political leaders. Ref C contains an in-depth treatment of Kenya's ethnic voting blocs, including the estimated share of the population for each bloc. Our analysis of voter registration data provides the share of the electorate for each major voting bloc. We determined the majority ethnic community for each of Kenya's 210 constituencies, assigning some constituencies "mixed" status. The results are provided below in descending order. ¶4. (SBU) GEMA (Kikuyu and close linguistic cousins and traditional political allies the Meru and Embu): Estimated share of the general population: 32 percent. Share of registered voters: 28 percent. Number of GEMA majority constituencies: 49 out of 210 (23 percent). Constituency distribution: Nairobi: 2, Eastern: 13, Central: 30, Rift Valley: 4. ¶5. (SBU) Our methodology undercounts GEMA because Kikuyu, to a greater extent than other Kenyan comunities, often live outside their majority areas. Also, Kikuyu are a significant component of several large Nairobi "mixed" constituencies. ¶6. (SBU) Kalenjin/Turkana: General Population: 10 percent. Electorate: 13%. Consituencies: 33 out of 210 (15%). Distribution: Rift Valley: 32. Western: 1. ¶7. (SBU) "Kalenjin," like "Luhya" and "Mijikenda," is a name given to a loose collection of several distict communities. The Turkana are not considered Kalenjin, but vote with them. The Kalenjin voted as one during the reign of fellow Kalenjin President Daniel arap Moi, but are now losing their political cohesion. ¶8. (SBU) Luo: General population: 12 percent. Electorate: 10 percent. Constituencies: 22 out of 210 (10 percent). Constituency Distribution: Nairobi: 1, Nyanza: 21. ¶9. (SBU) Luo are numerous in several Nairobi mixed constiuencies and make up a clear majority in one. Therefore, our methodology somewhat undercounts Luos, but to a lesser degree than GEMA voters. ¶10. (SBU) Luhya: General Population: 12 percent. Electorate: 10 percent. Constituencies: 23 out of 210 (11 percent). Distribution: All Western Province. ¶11. (SBU) Comment: The Luhya consist of sixteen distinct groups, speaking different languages and having different traditional political alliances. Luhya leaders often urge "Luhya Unity," but in fact the Luhya do not behave as a unified voting bloc. End Comment. ¶12. (SBU) Kamba: General Population: 11 percent. Electorate: NAIROBI 00003581 002 OF 002 9 percent. Constituencies: 17 out of 210 (8 percent). Distribution: all Eastern Province. ¶13. (SBU) Mixed: 12 percent of the electorate live in ethnically mixed constituencies where no one group predominates. Several of these constituencies have suffered significant political violence in the past. Septel on election "hot spots" will review these constituencies. Constituencies: 17 out 0f 210 (8 percent). ¶14. (SBU) Other small groups: -- The Kisii and Kuria (the two minority communities in Luo-dominated Nyanza province) together account for 5 percent of the national electorate. They usually vote in opposition to the Luo. -- The Mijikenda, a collection of nine coastal ethnic communities, also account for 5 percent of the electorate. They are only a semi-cohesive voting bloc. -- The Maasai and their Samburu cousins account for 3 percent of the electorate. They tend to vote in opposition to the Kikuyu due to land competition concerns. -- The Somalis account for 2 percent of the electorate, but nearly all of the population of Northeastern Province. They tend to identify with KANU, but also tend to support the government of the day. Under current political allignments, that means pro-Kibaki. -- The Borana (Oromo; northern half of Eastern province), Taita (Coast province on Tanzania border),Pokomos (Tana River, Coast Province) and Swahili/Arab/Bajuns (Coast Province) are each under 1 percent of the electorate, but dominate certain constituencies and so generally have representation in parliament. Presumptive Presidential Electoral Alignments -------------- ¶15. (SBU) According to conventional wisdom and traditional ethnic voting patterns, the campaign season will begin with the following presumptive ethnic voting bloc alignments, assuming a continued KANU/Kibaki alliance. Of course, campaigning can influence these alignments, as can political deals with ethnic/political leaders during the course of the campaign. Ultimately, it is voters who vote that determine the outcome. This data cannot predict actual voter turnout. Mwai Kibaki (party not yet declared): GEMA (28 percent), KANU-aligned elements of Kalenjin (7 percent),supporters of pro-Kibaki parties active in Western Province (5 percent), Kuria & Kisii (5 percent),supporters of pro-Kibaki parties active in Coast Province (half of Mijikenda, Taitas, Pokomos -- 4 percent),Somalis & Boranas (3 percent). TOTAL: 52 percent. (NOTE: Kibaki scored 45 percent in the latest credible candidate preference poll. END NOTE.) Raila Odinga (Orange Democratic Movement): Luo (10 percent), Kalenjin (6 percent),Luhya (5 percent),Coast Province (half of Mijikendas, Swahilis/Bajuns/Arabs -- 3 percent),Maasai & Samburu (3 percent). TOTAL: 27 percent. (NOTE: Odinga scored 25 percent in the latest credible candidate preference poll. END NOTE.) Kalonzo Musyoka (Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya): Kamba (9 percent). (NOTE: Musyoka scored 11 percent in the latest credible candidate preference poll. END NOTE.) ¶16. (SBU) The remaining 12 percent of the electorate are registered in "mixed" constituencies. To win the presidency, a candidate need only obtain a plurality of the vote and at least 25 percent in five of the eight provinces. RANNEBERGER