Somalia -- President Yusuf on the Way Forward

S E C R E T NAIROBI 003375 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PTER SO ET SUBJECT: Somalia -- President Yusuf on the Way Forward REF: A) Nairobi 3365 B) Nairobi 3312 Classified by Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Following the U.S.-TFG consultations on August 16 (Ref A) President Yusuf privately discussed with the Ambassador and Special Envoy Yates the way forward on national reconciliation and other issues. ¶2. (S/NF) Yusuf said that some members of the TFG, including Prime Minister Gedi, want to delay the 2009 transition process. They argue that all the necessary work for an orderly transition cannot be completed on time. Yusuf said he is opposed to this, and he wants the transition to take place as scheduled. He presented a document on the way forward (Ref B). ¶3. (S/NF) Yusuf said that forces opposed to the TFG are still strong, particularly in Kismayo and southern Somalia. The TFG, he said, is planning to launch an offensive against Kismayo within the next 4-6 weeks and wants U.S. support for the operations. The TFG is seeking any and all possible support -- from ground forces, to logistical support, to operational intelligence-sharing. Once Kismayo is taken, Yusuf said, it can be used as a base for operations against jihadist/extremist elements still active between Kismayo and the Kenyan border. ¶4. (C) Yusuf also emphasized the need to move forward quickly with training to build national police and military forces. We agreed to organize a follow-up meeting between his security experts and our team working on modalities for security assistance. ¶5. (S/NF) The Ambassador and Special Envoy stressed the central importance of achieving inclusive national reconciliation. They noted some positive signs that the Saudi, Arab League, and Egyptian positions may be shifting in favor of the national reconciliation process, which will potentially help to isolate extremists. Yusuf agreed, but said that PM Gedi is working against the national reconciliation congress. He is also stalling TFG work. "Gedi cannot continue," Yusuf said. "I will remove him, most likely in the October timeframe." Yusuf said that he had to proceed carefully in order to lay the basis for Gedi's removal. ¶6. (S/NF) A successful national reconciliation congress is necessary to set the stage for Gedi's removal, and steps had to be taken to undermine Gedi's efforts to foster support in the parliament through blatant bribery (literally handing out cash and cars to MPs, Yusuf claimed). Yusuf said that he would probably pick someone from the diaspora as the new prime minister (Comment: Yusuf appears to be counting on what has been the most talked about "political" outcome of the NRC -- an amendment to the Transitional Federal Charter provision that now requires all ministers to be chosen from the parliament. End Comment). The new prime minister, Yusuf said, will be someone broadly acceptable to the Hawiye. ¶7. (S/NF) Yusuf described the following as desired outcomes from the national reconciliation congress: reiteration of respect for the transitional federal charter; agreement to the constitution drafting process; agreement on preparations for the 2009 elections; inclusive power-sharing; and agreement on a set of principles to guide the TFG. Yusuf agreed with the Ambassador that he should do more outreach to the media to discuss his commitment to national reconciliation and these objectives. ¶8. (C) Yusuf said he would probably be going to Addis within a week. He said that the Ethiopian forces need to leave Somalia, but AMISOM must first be strengthened in order to avoid a security vacuum. ¶9. (C) Yusuf wondered whether it would be useful for him to go to the UNGA to appeal for assistance for AMISOM and, more broadly, for the TFG. He also floated the idea of then proceeding to Washington for discussions. RANNEBERGER