Somalia -- President Yusuf on the Way Forward

S E C R E T NAIROBI 003375

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PTER SO ET
SUBJECT: Somalia -- President Yusuf on the Way Forward

REF: A) Nairobi 3365 B) Nairobi 3312

Classified by Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Following the U.S.-TFG consultations on August 16 (Ref A)
President Yusuf privately discussed with the Ambassador and Special
Envoy Yates the way forward on national reconciliation and other
issues.


2. (S/NF) Yusuf said that some members of the TFG, including Prime
Minister Gedi, want to delay the 2009 transition process. They argue
that all the necessary work for an orderly transition cannot be
completed on time. Yusuf said he is opposed to this, and he wants
the transition to take place as scheduled. He presented a document
on the way forward (Ref B).


3. (S/NF) Yusuf said that forces opposed to the TFG are still strong,
particularly in Kismayo and southern Somalia. The TFG, he said, is
planning to launch an offensive against Kismayo within the next 4-6
weeks and wants U.S. support for the operations. The TFG is seeking
any and all possible support -- from ground forces, to logistical
support, to operational intelligence-sharing. Once Kismayo is taken,
Yusuf said, it can be used as a base for operations against
jihadist/extremist elements still active between Kismayo and the
Kenyan border.


4. (C) Yusuf also emphasized the need to move forward quickly with
training to build national police and military forces. We agreed to
organize a follow-up meeting between his security experts and our
team working on modalities for security assistance.


5. (S/NF) The Ambassador and Special Envoy stressed the central
importance of achieving inclusive national reconciliation. They
noted some positive signs that the Saudi, Arab League, and Egyptian
positions may be shifting in favor of the national reconciliation
process, which will potentially help to isolate extremists. Yusuf
agreed, but said that PM Gedi is working against the national
reconciliation congress. He is also stalling TFG work. "Gedi cannot
continue," Yusuf said. "I will remove him, most likely in the
October timeframe." Yusuf said that he had to proceed carefully in
order to lay the basis for Gedi's removal.


6. (S/NF) A successful national reconciliation congress is necessary
to set the stage for Gedi's removal, and steps had to be taken to
undermine Gedi's efforts to foster support in the parliament through
blatant bribery (literally handing out cash and cars to MPs, Yusuf
claimed). Yusuf said that he would probably pick someone from the
diaspora as the new prime minister (Comment: Yusuf appears to be
counting on what has been the most talked about "political" outcome
of the NRC -- an amendment to the Transitional Federal Charter
provision that now requires all ministers to be chosen from the
parliament. End Comment). The new prime minister, Yusuf said, will
be someone broadly acceptable to the Hawiye.


7. (S/NF) Yusuf described the following as desired outcomes from the
national reconciliation congress: reiteration of respect for the
transitional federal charter; agreement to the constitution drafting
process; agreement on preparations for the 2009 elections; inclusive
power-sharing; and agreement on a set of principles to guide the TFG.
Yusuf agreed with the Ambassador that he should do more outreach to
the media to discuss his commitment to national reconciliation and
these objectives.


8. (C) Yusuf said he would probably be going to Addis within a week.
He said that the Ethiopian forces need to leave Somalia, but AMISOM
must first be strengthened in order to avoid a security vacuum.


9. (C) Yusuf wondered whether it would be useful for him to go to the
UNGA to appeal for assistance for AMISOM and, more broadly, for the
TFG. He also floated the idea of then proceeding to Washington for
discussions.
RANNEBERGER