PRIME MINISTER GEDI PROMISES A "NEW SOMALIA," ACTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000263

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET KE
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER GEDI PROMISES A "NEW SOMALIA," ACTS
NEGATIVELY


Classified By: Somalia Counselor John Yates for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a January 7 meeting in Nairobi with
Assistant Secretary Frazer, Somali Prime Minister Ali Gedi
was confident a "new Somalia" was on its way, and appealed
for immediate donor support. The rosy picture Gedi painted
did not mask the very serious problems which remain within
the leadership itself. These major rifts surfaced shortly
after the meeting when Gedi reneged on his commitment to A/S
Frazer to meet with the Parliament Speaker. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) When A/S Frazer was unable to travel to Mogadishu, a
confident Prime Minister Gedi, accompanied by the Foreign
Minister and other aides, described for her six days of
consultations with elders, business leaders and civil society
members to establish government institutions on a broadly
representative basis. Assistant Secretary Frazer emphasized
to Gedi the need for the PM to lead an inclusive process that
inspires Somali and international confidence in the
Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs). Informing the PM
of the Secretary's commitment of USD 40 million in new
assistance, A/S Frazer explained that this assistance was
dependent on progress in the areas of security, stability and
inclusive political dialogue.

"A Different Mogadishu"
--------------


3. (C) The Prime Minister described a positive situation in
the country, in particular Mogadishu. The trend is clear,
Gedi stated, the Somali people have confidence in the
Transitional Federal Government (TFG). In just 10 to 15 days
you will see a different Mogadishu, he remarked. All
sub-clans are consulting, the central prison is operational,
the courts are open and law enforcement is "taking off," Gedi
stated.


4. (C) On the key issue of security, Gedi denied that the
TFG had declared martial law as reported in the media and by
Parliament Speaker Shariff Hassan Sheikh Adan. Rather, he
said that the Cabinet was merely trying to send a message to
the former warlord militias or freelance militias that
extra-legal activities would not be tolerated. Gedi said
that he had established an inclusive committee for "Security
and Stabilization," explaining that it is comprised of all
stakeholders. Detailing the "voluntary" disarmament process,
the PM explained that warlords, already largely disarmed by
the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC),were under pressure to
hand over their remaining weapons, but admitted that the TFG
was conducting the disarmament process in Mogadishu with the
support of Ethiopian troops. We are handling the process
carefully, he continued, if people feel safe, they will
surrender their arms. A/S Frazer noted the concern that some
clans might perceive the call for disarmament as a threat or
as targeting a specific clan, and suggested that the TFG
consult with other leaders in the region, particularly
Djibouti and Yemen, for valuable input and advice on how the
process should be run. Gedi repeatedly emphasized the need
for building the capacity of Somalia's own security forces.
The 1,000 police that are currently trained have been
summoned to Mogadishu to staff its 13 police stations.


5. (C) A/S Frazer noted that the recent statements by the
TFG leadership had improved and indicated a greater
willingness to engage in an inclusive process of dialogue,
but emphasized that the TFG's actions must match these words.
Frazer highlighted the recent problematic statements by TFG
Interior Minister Hussein Aideed (that there are 3 to 4
thousand CIC militia in Mogadishu),emphasizing that the TFG
must not be seen as allowing former warlords to return to
Mogadishu. Gedi denied suggestions that warlords might be
allowed to return to Mogadishu. On roadblocks, the PM
conceded that a few might have gone up after the CIC's
initial removal, but they were quickly dismantled. The PM's
aides described driving unhindered and unescorted throughout
the capital. Human rights, democracy and free expression are
respected now, the PM added. Gedi also gave a positive
report on the status of the ports and airport. Revenue is
being collected and immigration services are operational.
A/S Frazer reminded the PM that in appointing officials to

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run Somalia's institutions, such as the ports, it was of
critical importance that the positions be distributed
transparently and evenly.


6. (C) A/S Frazer also emphasized the need for
reconciliation among the leadership of the TFIs, particularly
between the President, Prime Minister, and Parliament
Speaker, which the International Contact Group on Somalia had
discussed earlier in the week. Gedi dismissed rumors that
there was a plan afoot to impeach Speaker Shariff Hassan.
Parliament is doing its job, operating in Baidoa. It's only
the Speaker and "less than 20" MPs that are missing; but,
Gedi added, he has called Speaker Shariff Hassan to join the
Parliament in Baidoa. Asserting that he is reaching out, the
PM blamed "irresponsible members" of the international
community for the (mis)perception that there is dysfunction
among the TFIs' leadership. The international community is
creating doubts, he stated, with allegations that some MPs
were aligned with the CIC.

But Help is Needed
--------------


7. (C) A lack of support (resources) is his government's
greatest challenge, Gedi remarked. The PM appealed for
technical assistance, including the placement of foreign
technical experts with the TFIs, to build government
capacity. Gedi also emphasized a need for humanitarian
relief supplies to provide basic services especially in that
IDPs were returning to Mogadishu in numbers. In addition,
the country needs training and equipment for security forces.
With respect to U.S. support, Gedi suggested making our
assistance more apparent, so Somalis understand the U.S. is
helping. A/S Frazer suggested that the TFG reach out to the
Somali diaspora, encouraging them to come home and support
the reconstruction process.


8. (C) Reluctant to agree that Ethiopian troops should leave
right away, Foreign Minister Hurre suggested that once
Somalia and Ethiopia see that there is a viable international
force, "our friends can go." Appreciative of the police
training provided by Kenya and others so far, the PM asked
that donors provide more resources for the police. Gedi
suggested that within four months Somali security forces
would be self sufficient, with the right assistance.
Concerned about the flow of security equipment, Hurre asked
A/S Frazer to revisit UNSC 1725 and specifically to alter the
UN arms embargo to allow the TFG to import weapons. The
Assistant Secretary said that the Security Council would take
a fresh look at 1725 when appropriate, but that in the
meantime the TFG should not publicly request a lifting of the
arms embargo. This would be unhelpful, she continued,
considering the common perception that the country is already
awash in arms.


9. (C) Responding to A/S Frazer's suggestion that
reconciliation within the leadership of the TFIs is of utmost
importance, Gedi claimed he had been reaching out to the
Speaker, and committed both to participating in a roundtable
discussion with Mogadishu civil society leaders and Speaker
Shariff Hassan. When the time came, however, he was a
no-show, sending members of this staff with lame excuses for
reneging. TFG Foreign Minister Hurre later told the
Ambassador that President Yusuf had prevented Gedi from
meeting with the Speaker, claiming that the Speaker had been
implicated in the September 2006 plot to assassinate
President Yusuf.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Gedi's behavior highlights doubts that the TFG
leadership will be able to lead a process of inclusive
political dialogue with key stakeholders currently outside of
the TFIs. END COMMENT.


11. (U) Assistant Secretary Frazer has cleared this message.
RANNEBERGER