Tour d'Horizon with Prime Minister Gedi

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 002606

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PTER SO ET
SUBJECT: Tour d'Horizon with Prime Minister Gedi

REF: A) Nairobi 2559 B) Nairobi 2507

Classified by PolOff Mitch Benedict for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The Ambassador and Special Envoy John Yates met
Prime Minister Ali Gedi on June 21 to discuss the June 18
announcement of a general amnesty, preparations for the National
Reconciliation Congress, the current security situation, and the PM's
upcoming travel to Washington and New York. End Summary.

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Amnesty Announced While Arrests Continue
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2. (C) In a meeting on June 21 with Prime Minister Ali Gedi the
Ambassador praised the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) for the
recent announcement of a general amnesty (Ref A) as a positive signal
of the TFG's intentions to hold an inclusive National Reconciliation
Congress (NRC). Other than the announcement there have been no
details on the amnesty released. While the amnesty is a positive
development, the Ambassador underscored the negative the perception
caused by continued TFG and Ethiopian arrests and detentions of
individuals and NGO personnel (Septel) of "one step forward, three
steps back." The closure of SAACID, a well regarded and
internationally funded women's and children's empowerment NGO that
has worked on community-level programs and disarmament was raised as
a case in point. SAACID staff have been detained, their computers,
vehicles, and other property confiscated or destroyed, and their
buildings and compound now occupied.


3. (C) Gedi claimed SAACID had failed to register as an NGO, and that
TFG intelligence had revealed that the SAACID compound was being used
to hide significant amounts of heavy weaponry. The Director of
SAACID, Gedi informed us, had been released. (Comment: According to
SAACID, however, two staff remained unaccounted for. Later in the
day on June 21, we learned the Director and her husband had been
re-arrested. SAACID told us the charges against the Director are
that she is a Hawiye member opposed to the TFG and planning and
committing terrorist acts against the TFG. An ongoing OXFAM and
Dutch foreign ministry-financed program to assist 6,500 IDPs, as well
as SAACID's partnership with WFP and other international
organizations to provide humanitarian relief, health, sanitation, and
education programming has been severely hampered. End Comment)


4. (C) The Ambassador highlighted the view of many that sizable
numbers of people in Mogadishu are being arrested and detailed
without due process or compliance with the requirement under Somali
law either to charge someone or release them within 24 hours. Gedi
said he has for some time urged the Parliament to pass an
anti-terrorism law, and he is now working with the Speaker of
Parliament to move such a law forward. In the interim, Gedi assured
us, a committee of five -- the Commissioner of Police, Chief of
Intelligence, Army Chief of Staff, Mayor of Mogadishu, and the
Commander of Ethiopian Military forces -- is responsible for
decision-making on arrests and detentions. Gedi said that no action
can be taken without the agreement of all.


5. (C) Gedi blamed the arrests and detentions in part on poorly
trained and overzealous security personnel. "These things happen,"
he said, adding that "you give them one gram of instruction and they
take ten." He pointed out that it was when he was in Beledweyn that
the security forces ransacked the home of former President Abdi
Qassim, which caused him to have to return quickly to Mogadishu to
help rectify. He suggested that with the committee of five, security
operations will be more carefully thought through, and mistakes
should be less frequent.


6. (C) In terms of implementing the announced amnesty, Gedi said, the
committee of five just listed has overseen a classification of cases
and will now begin to take action either to charge or to release
those detained. Amnesty is for former members of the Islamic Courts
and their forces, but not "for those who have killed." Other than
known terrorists and murderers, according to Gedi, everyone else will
be given amnesty.

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National Reconciliation Congress
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7. (C) On the National Reconciliation Congress (NRC),Gedi said the
National Governance and Reconciliation Committee (NGRC) has been
enlarged to include two new representatives from the Hawiye/Haber
Gedir/Ayr and the Darood/Marehan. Gedi reported that the TFG has
completed its dialogue with the sub-clans of the Haber Gedir, and
they have agreed to disarm, participate fully in the NRC, and support
the TFG. (Comment: If so, and we highly doubt it, the NRC should
have no problem starting on July 15 and proceeding smoothly. End
Comment).

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8. (C) The Ambassador asked for assurances from the PM that the NRC
will address political issues in addition to social reconciliation
issues. Gedi said that social reconciliation and issues of property
restitution will dominate the first part of the NRC. However, the
Roadmap as published in March remains the guiding document for the
TFG in terms of expected outcomes of reconciliation, and Gedi said
that the NRC will address political issues which will likely lead to
political outcomes.


9. (C) Gedi said the TFG met earlier this week with the Hawiye/Haber
Gedir/Ayr, who are raising new issues and asking for government
positions. The TFG is requesting that the Ayr hand over their
weapons and ammunition. The committee of five is negotiating with
the Ayr, with support from AMISOM, to coordinate the handover of
weapons. Gedi claims the handover will take place on or before July

5.


10. (C) Gedi claims the Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Suleiman and
Hawiye/Duduble also now support the government in addition to the
Ayr. Gedi said he spoke with Ali Mahdi, the Chairman of the NGRC,
and recommended that Mahdi meet with all Hawiye prior to the NRC.
The only remaining issue now with regard to the NRC, according to
Gedi, is financial. He said if the NGRC had the financial resources
they could bring the delegates to Mogadishu tomorrow. The TFG
provided some support to the NGRC in order to allow rehabilitation
and construction work to begin on the venue. (Comment: On June 22,
Mohamoud Jirdeh Hussein, Deputy Chairman of the NGRC, told us the TFG
promised $250,000 but has only provided $100,000. Still, there has
been no prior disclosure of a financial contribution of any kind from
the TFG. End Comment).


11. (C) On the question of security for the NRC, Gedi said that by
the end of June 1,400 police will have been trained. A minimum of
1,000 will be deployed in Mogadishu. Gedi is confident that the
Somali police, in conjunction with AMISOM and Ethiopian forces, will
be able to provide adequate security. He said that if there is
general agreement among the clans to participate positively in the
NRC, then the risk of spoilers disrupting the process will be
minimized.

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Looming "Constitutional Crisis"
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12. (C) Gedi told us his government now has 90 days -- until October
10 -- to achieve its mandate in the Transitional Federal Charter to
implement a federal system for the country within two and half years
of the start of the transition. This would require having fully
formed regional and district administrations in place, and a
constitutional process under way. If the TFG fails to fulfill its
mandate within the time stipulated they must seek a parliamentary
vote of confidence, which could lead to the dissolution of the Gedi
government. In most of the country -- including Gedo, and Lower and
Upper Shabelle, there has been no progress on the creation of a
federal system.


13. (C) The Commission charged with drafting a new constitution has
completed their initial research and are now ready to work on a
draft. However, according to Gedi, only two or three members of the
14-member commission are competent, and even they lack the capacity
to turn data and research into a constitution. He asked us to
provide constitutional lawyers who are experts on Somalia to work
with the Chair and members of the commission to draft a constitution.
A first draft is needed in 30 days, after which the TFG would have
30 days to consult on the draft before sending to Parliament.
(Comment: The development process for a constitution is not/not part
of the mandate that the TFG must complete by October 10. In fact, we
and our international partners engaged on Somalia, view the
establishment of a process for creating a constitution as a key
outcome of the NRC, primarily because it will require broad
consultation and input rather than be the product of a handful of
people. End Comment)

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Security Issues
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14. (C) Jihadists are targeting TFG intel and police officers,
according to Gedi. He said two police officers were killed on June
20, and he asked the U.S. to consider providing security assistance.
TFG security forces, particularly the intelligence forces, need
capacity building, training, equipment, and logistical support. Gedi
claimed that even tax collectors are in danger of being targeted.


15. (C) Gedi said that on June 20 security forces captured 25
"trainees" on the compound of warlord and MP Mohamed Qanyare
(Hawiye/Murosade). The trainees were allegedly being trained in

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assassinations and explosions by two individuals with experience in
Afghanistan. Without any further detail Gedi said Qanyare, who has
immunity as an MP, has agreed "to cooperate."


16. (C) Anticipating the eventual replacement of African Union forces
by a United Nations force, Gedi noted the TFG's desire for
"trustworthy leadership." He recommended that the U.S. take an
overall leadership role. "We don't want to be cheated again," he
said. Deputy Commanders could come from other friendly countries,
but he clearly wanted the U.S. to be in charge overall.

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Public Outreach
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17. (SBU) In response to repeated urgings by the Ambassador for more
pro-active and robust media and public affairs outreach on the part
of the TFG, the PM announced that he has recently added three new
staff to his office. We were told he now has on staff a public
spokesman, an advisor for external relations (an AMCIT),and a
director for outreach to Somalia's regions.

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Immediate Travel Plans
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18. (U) Gedi departs Saturday for Washington and New York (Ref B).
He plans to travel to Accra on July 1 for the AU Summit, and then
return to Nairobi on July 4. After Nairobi he intends to travel to
Riyadh. The Saudis, according to Gedi, are eager to support the NRC
and TFG security efforts.
RANNEBERGER