KENYAN NOTABLES DISCUSS THE NEIGHBORS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002351 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2027 TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV PTER KE SO SU SUBJECT: KENYAN NOTABLES DISCUSS THE NEIGHBORS WITH AMBASSADOR CARSON Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: During his recent visit to Kenya, Ambassador Johnnie Carson, National Intelligence Officer for Africa, discussed developments in Somalia and Sudan with Kenyan interlocutors. From the Kenyan perspective, instability in both countries is of significant concern for Kenya's well-being. While there are no simple solutions, all interlocutors agreed that the U.S., Kenya and other members of the international community could help both situations by further cooperation in the region. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Visiting Ambassador Johnnie Carson met recently with a variety of Kenyan interlocutors in Nairobi to discuss developments in Somalia and Sudan. From the government, the list included Internal Security Minister John Michuki and Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs Moses Wetangula. He also had conversations with former President Daniel Moi, Lt. Gen (Ret.) Lazarus Sumbeiywo, and opposition leaders and presidential hopefuls MPs Kalonzo Musyoka and Uhuru Kenyatta. Michuki: "We'll Weed them Out" -------------- ¶3. (C) Kenyans emphasized the threat Somalia poses to Kenyan security. "Kenya's interests in Somalia are greater than the United States'," Internal Security Minister John Michuki stated, reiterating Kenya's security equipment needs (including bullet-proof vests, gun detectors and night-vision goggles). Michuki noted that it was critical to secure the border with Somalia. The Minister urged the U.S. to declare Eritrea a sponsor of terrorism, and that the U.S. and Kenya should cooperate to bring Somalia back to the community of nations. The TFG is weak, he said, but the international community has no choice but to strengthen it. In addition, the TFG needs money to "absorb" the militias. ¶4. (C) Despite the challenge of a porous border with Somalia, Michuki pledged that Kenyan intelligence will identify extremists. Referring to accusations that the Government of Kenya is sending its citizens accused of terrorist connections to the U.S., Michuki accused Islamic preachers in Kenya of "hiding behind human rights to cause trouble." After the warlords fell in Somalia, he explained, Kenyan Muslims sent their sons to fight the Ethiopians. Many were killed or locked up there, but their families accuse the government of sending them to the U.S. (NOTE: Most such comments from the Kenyan Muslim leadership accuse the Kenyan government of transferring Kenyans to Ethiopian or Somali custody, not to the U.S. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) In a separate conversation, Assistant Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula commented on Somalia's governance challenges. He noted that the TFG needed support to stand on its own but could be "propped up" if its institutions were built up. Kenya can train police in three months, for example, and is currently giving Somalia one million dollars each month, but cannot keep it up; Somalia must find a way to generate its own revenue, Wetangula added. With regard to its own ongoing backing of the TFG, the Government of Kenya has urged the TFG to invite to the National Reconciliation Congress even those who do not agree with them, and has promised that Kenya will provide safe passage. A Regional Approach -------------- ¶6. (C) Observers outside of government advocated for a regional approach. Not optimistic about Somalia in the near term, retired Lt. General Lazarus Sumbeiywo observed that Ethiopia would like Somalia to remain ungovernable. Nostalgic for former President Moi's governance style, MP and opposition presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta remarked that the region needed a strong leader and negotiator like his one-time mentor. At present, the approach has been more muscle than dialogue, he said. If Ethiopia pulls out tomorrow, Kenyatta predicted, the problem will land in Mandera (ethnic Somali region of Kenya). Kalonzo Musyoka, once foreign minister, focused on Eritrea's role in Somalia, suggesting that Eritrea needed to get the message that promoting extremism in Somalia was unacceptable. Musyoka, like Kenyatta emphasized the need for a "regional face" with the active support of the U.S. Musyoka thought "we must ensure Yusuf is in charge." At the same time it must be balanced with Gedi staying in power. ¶7. (C) Sumbeiywo remarked that the best thing for Somalia would be to break the country into small independent units, starting with recognition of Somaliland. Moi discussed the possibility of international recognition of independent Somaliland. One approach would be to convince the AU to take the lead and recognize areas that are peaceful, such as Somaliland and Puntland, as building blocks to stability in the entire area. Moi thought he could urge Ugandan President Museveni to support this approach. Assistant Foreign Minister Wetangula also commented on Somaliland, noting that its officials had approached Kenya with a proposal to establish a liaison office in Nairobi to have access to diplomatic missions. Somaliland has stepped up its lobbying efforts, he added. He expected that unless there is a federation agreement soon, an independent Somaliland will be inevitable. Sudan -------------- ¶8. (C) Sumbeiywo was equally pessimistic about Sudan, a county to which he has dedicated considerable energy. The North-South agreement is falling apart, he noted. Mistrust is sabotaging revenue sharing arrangements, some groups are yet to disarm, the government is supporting dissidents, and there's "bad blood" between President Bashir and Salva Kiir. Without agreement on the border, he added, revenue sharing will not be resolved. President Bashir is faced with a dilemma: if he leaves office, he may be indicted by the International Criminal Court; if he stays, he may face another war. The MFA's Wetangula agreed that Bashir's suspicion that he is on the ICC's wanted list makes him more "belligerent and hostile." A military leader to replace him, however, would be more hardline. Ninety-nine percent of southern Sudanese see no use in unification, he remarked. ¶9. (C) Former President Moi, who remains active on Sudan issues, opined that the CPA was not being implemented at all, and that Salva Kiir does not know politics. Bashir is tired, he added. Getting the IGAD heads of state engaged is necessary, but they are too occupied with Somalia, Moi said. Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs Moses Wetangula assured Ambassador Carson of Kenya's engagement, adding that Kenya is the vice-chair of the Monitoring and Implementation Committee. He said later this year there will be an IGAD summit to audit how the CPA is being implemented. In his opinion, "bits and pieces" of the CPA were holding. He agreed, however, that the wealth sharing formula was a major problem. Musyoka noted that while Salva Kiir is "hanging on," he must be encouraged to be fair to Rebecca Garang. Musyoka has personally encouraged Garang not to give up and thought the CPA was holding. ¶10. (C) In Darfur, Sumbeiywo observed, the AU is trying to "protect the unprotectable," but does not want to see its first mission fail. For their part, the rebels do not see it as their role to negotiate an agreement: that is the responsibility of the international community. The violence in Darfur also hinders implementation of the CPA since southern Sudanese see their "black brothers" dying in Darfur. Wetangula suggested that it was necessary for the U.S., Egypt, and China to engage together on Darfur. In sum, IGAD is not sufficiently seized with Darfur, he said. The international community needs to cut the flow of arms to Sudan (especially from Eritrea and Ethiopia). Kenya is willing to play its limited role, he added, provided those who can do more do so. Musyoka advocated a similar international approach, commenting that Africa cannot maintain the peacekeeping mission on its own. RANNEBERGER