Meeting with Former Foreign Minister Hurreh

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002281 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL SO ET SUBJECT: Meeting with Former Foreign Minister Hurreh Ref: Nairobi 2263 Classified by Amb. Ranneberger. Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. At a meeting with the Ambassador, Somali Education Minister Hurreh discussed the milieu of the upcoming National Reconciliation Congress and confirmed that the pressure to remove Prime Minister Gedi from office is building. The Ambassador emphasized that the Congress must include deliberations about power sharing and the roadmap to transition. Hurreh is seeking funds for the Somali education system. President Yusuf will travel to Libya on May 31. End summary. ¶2. (U) The Ambassador met with Somali Education Minister and former Foreign Minister Ismael Mohamud Hurreh (Dir/Issaq) yesterday (5/29/07) at his residence. Poloff attended as note taker. -------------- National Reconciliation -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador briefed Hurreh on his May 26 meeting with National Governance and Reconciliation Committee Chairman Ali Mahdi (reftel). He reiterated to Hurreh that the National Reconciliation Congress (NRC) must deal with political power sharing issues along with the roadmap to a new constitution and elections in 2009. He emphasized that, in our view, national reconciliation cannot succeed unless the legitimate concerns of the Hawiye clan and its sub-clans are addressed. The USG would not support a Congress that does not seek to resolve the political issues that have torn Somalia apart. ¶4. (C) Hurreh told the Ambassador that in recent months there have been parallel views within the TFG regarding the NRC. The first view held that the NRC should only deal with clan reconciliation and forgiveness. According to Hurreh, this course would prolong the transition period beyond 2009, which is what many in the TFG want. The second view holds that power sharing and the roadmap must be on the agenda to secure clan support. If these concerns are not addressed, "there will be problems", i.e., full-blown insurgency. He stated that Ethiopia also wants the Congress to consider political and roadmap issues, understanding that it will not be able to withdraw from Somalia without progress on the political front. Hurreh said that US insistence on political and roadmap discussions was helpful in pushing the transition to completion in 2009. ¶5. (C) The Minister opined that Ali Mahdi is a "wiser man" now than when he was president in 1991. He has learned to be a statesman. He must, however, develop better relations with the clan elders and bring them into his plans for national reconciliation. He noted that the traditional elders, for their part, tend to dislike Ali Mahdi and his committee because they appear to be issuing instruction to the elders. Hurreh said that he is encouraging the elders to invite Ali Mahdi to their pre-NRC deliberations so that he can have the opportunity to share his vision of the future Somalia. ¶6. (C) Hurreh told the Ambassador that in meeting to prepare for the NRC, the traditional elders from the north are talking to traditional elders from the south. Hurreh found this collaboration useful for reducing clan tensions across the country, and he noted that establishing and deploying a national army within the 4.5 formula would further strengthen clan reconciliation because no single clan would feel threatened. ¶7. (C) Hurreh offered his view that the current 16-year old Somali conflict is analogous to the Hawiye - Darod animosities which threatened the country at independence in 1960. According to him, it was only the accession of British Somaliland to the Somali union that kept the country from immediate civil war. Hurreh, who hails from Somaliland, said the country again needs a non-threatening northerner as president or prime minister in order to alleviate Hawiye - Darod tensions. -------------- The Prime Minister -------------- ¶8. (C) In response to a question from the Ambassador regarding the role of Prime Minister Gedi in the reconciliation process, Hurreh said that Gedi had been trying to sabotage the Congress. According to him, Gedi was a leading exponent of "social reconciliation"; he did not want power sharing discussed for fear of losing his job. He now thought, however, that Gedi was resigned to both a political Congress and his imminent departure NAIROBI 00002281 002 OF 002 from office. Both President Yusuf and the Ethiopians realized that the widely unpopular Gedi must go, and even Gedi's parliamentary supporters were prepared to abandon him. Although many observers expected the NRC to remove Gedi from power, Hurreh said it could happen sooner because Gedi's administration had not accomplished its transition tasks in the two and a half years allotted under the transitional instruments. Parliament could, therefore, legally remove him at any time. ¶9. (C) As to who would replace Gedi as Prime Minister, Hurreh noted that the individual must be technically competent and energetic, have a vision for Somalia, be broadly acceptable to the clans, and be acceptable to the international community. He said that Yusuf might consider Commercial Minister (and Canadian citizen) Abdullahi Ahmed Afrah (Hawiye/Abgal/Waceysle) who is from Gedi's sub-clan. Another possibility might be Hawiye political leader Mohamud Mohamed Ulusow (Haber Gedir/Ayr). ¶10. (C) Hurreh then stated that a non-Hawiye might be broadly acceptable--even to Hawiye--in order to avoid intra-Hawiye conflict between the Haber Gedir and Abgal sub-clans. A northerner would be preferable because he would pose no inherent threat to either the Hawiye or the Darod. He offered that he himself--a northerner--was the most talked-about non-Hawiye candidate for the Prime Minister's post. He stated that he was in contact with all clans and thought that Hawiye businessmen would support him in order to avoid intra-clan hostilities. If nominated by President Yusuf, he believed parliament might support him, especially because the Hawiye MPs would not be able to agree on a Hawiye candidate. Hurreh told the Ambassador that when he leaves Nairobi in a few days, he will go to Baidoa to meet with MPs and take a quiet vote count. -------------- Education -------------- ¶11. (C) On his brief as Education Minister, Hurreh noted that he had just met with UNICEF in Nairobi to garner support for rebuilding Somalia's education system. Before coming here, he had also visited the Islamic Development Bank in Saudi Arabia seeking funds for educational support. The Ambassador warned him to be careful about conditions the Saudis might impose in conjunction with loans or grants, specifically requirements to espouse Wahabi Islam in the classroom. ¶12. (U) Hurreh noted that schools must be reestablished in all of Somalia's 92 districts but that, in the "wholistic framework" he is developing, Mogadishu's schools will take priority. In order to entice donors with an articulated vision, he said that he has developed three priorities: 1) repair or rebuild the education system's physical infrastructure; 2) retrain current teachers and educate new ones; 3) develop a national curriculum. The Ambassador encouraged his efforts and noted that a portion of our $10 million earmarked for development in Somalia was aimed at education. He also urged Hurreh to discuss with UNDP his vision for reconstituting the educational education. -------------- This and That -------------- ¶13. (C) Hurreh was recently in the UAE trying to secure the $3 million pledged by the Emirates before the outbreak of major fighting in Mogadishu in late March and early April. Originally intended to purchase vehicles, fuel, and food for Somalia's national army, UAE reduced the grant to $1.5 million dollars and earmarked it solely for food in order to avoid the appearance of backing the TFG against the Hawiye. ¶14. (C) President Yusuf will travel to Libya on May 31 for a Sahelian conference. Ranneberger