Ali Mahdi on the Somalia Reconciliation Congress

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002263 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PTER SO ET SUBJECT: Ali Mahdi on the Somalia Reconciliation Congress Classified by PolOff Mitch Benedict for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador met with Ali Mahdi, Chairman of the National Governance and Reconciliation Committee (NGRC) to discuss planning and preparations for the National Reconciliation Congress (NRC) that will begin June 14. Mahdi confirmed that the NRC will cover social, political, and transitional issues. It will commence, at least symbolically, as scheduled. The objective is a Congress with 1325 delegates meeting for 4-5 weeks. End Summary. -------------- NRC Delegates and Timing -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met May 26 with Ali Mahdi, Chairman of the National Governance and Reconciliation Committee (NGRC) to discuss planning and preparations for the National Reconciliation Congress (NRC). Current plans call for delegates to arrive in Mogadishu on June 10 and for the NRC to commence on June 14 with an opening ceremony. However, the NRC is not expected to get underway fully until some days (probably 10 days to 2 weeks) later, and then last 4-5 weeks. There will be 1325 official delegates allocated according to the 4.5 clan-based formula as follows: 250 for each of the major clans; 125 for the "point five" minority clans; 100 reserved for the diaspora; and, 100 for smaller clans who are not represented in Parliament or for "fixes" to address any imbalances that may arise. -------------- NRC Purpose and Agenda -------------- ¶3. (C) Mahdi cautioned that on the issue of the agenda great care must be taken to ensure that the NRC does not collapse. He said political issues will naturally be part of the agenda. However, because those issues are most sensitive "social reconciliation" issues must come first. The overall purpose of the NRC is "to make peace among the clans of Somalia." He stated further that he wants the TFG to be a government of consensus, to accept political parties as part of the political process, and to work toward establishing a process for conducting elections in 2009. Mahdi views the NRC as part of the process to develop a roadmap whereby the TFG moves toward the transition in 2009. ¶4. (C) Mahdi said that he and his committee do not believe that now is the time for a full scale change in the structure of the parliament or government of Somalia. However, he offered that many of the 275 MPs are uneducated and ill-suited for the job, and the same applies to the cabinet because of the provision in the Transitional Federal Charter that requires cabinet members to be MPs. Mahdi declared that to "fix" the problem of a poorly qualified government the Charter needs to be amended, and he implied NRC would address such issues. He said the ability to bring into government well-educated people as ministers -- such as Mohamud Uluso -- "would quiet the Ayr" and help to accommodate those opposed to and outside the government. ¶5. (C) Mahdi was firm in his belief that the NRC has to accommodate those who are now opposed to the TFG. But, he cautioned, by "accommodate" he did not mean eliminating the TFG and starting over, which would set the political process back to square one. He said a census will ultimately be required as a basis for elections in 2009. For example, he said, Mogadishu has a population of about two million and has two seats in Parliament, whereas Bur Acaba, a district with 100,000 people, is represented by seven seats in Parliament. He said it is up to the NRC, but his view is that these issues should be addressed. He believes that if the NRC is open to discussions of such issues then the clans will send the right people, and the Congress will be a success. Mahdi assured us that President Yusuf, "and his Prime Minister," support his approach fully. (Mahdi clearly implied that Yusuf is in control regardless of who will be his Prime Minister in the future). However, Parliament is not supportive of the NRC going beyond social reconciliation. Mahdi passed us on May 27 a draft of the NGRC's agenda for the NRC (septel). Mahdi said Ethiopia FM Seyoum was just in Mogadishu and expressed full support for Mahdi's efforts. -------------- Hawiye Leadership Committee -------------- ¶6. (C) Mahdi met with the "so-called" Hawiye Leadership Committee for seven hours on May 25. Reportedly, he reviewed the planning and preparations for the NRC, and assured them the NRC would address political and power sharing issues as well social reconciliation. "They calmed down," he said; and he agreed to meet with a larger group of 300-400 Hawiye at his home after he returns to Mogadishu on May 30. He hoped by meeting with the seven sub-clans of Hawiye in a larger gathering they can talk about the conference and agree on a NAIROBI 00002263 002 OF 002 way forward. Mahdi encouraged us to speak with influential Ayr leaders and intellectuals, such as Mohamud Uluso (Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Ayr political leader),Abdullah Shirwa (Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Duduble; civil society leader),and Ali Sharmarke and Ahmed Abdisalam (both Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Ayr, managers of HornAfrik media, and civil society activists). We are following up. -------------- Public Outreach -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador urged Mahdi to talk to the people of Somalia about his plans, intentions, and hopes for the NRC. He restated Mahdi's views on the Congress in order to confirm our understanding that the Congress will address power-sharing and 2009 transition issues. Mahdi said that is correct. The Ambassador indicated our intention to use the media and public outreach to support Mahdi's efforts to hold a successful NRC. Mahdi enthusiastically accepted the Ambassador's offer to consider making available the expertise of public affairs professionals. -------------- Mogadishu Security -------------- ¶8. (C) Mahdi admitted that Mogadishu is not totally safe, and he is concerned about the advent of roadside bombs as a new tactic of those opposed to stability and security. However, there are no militia fighting militia; and military actions and hostilities have ceased. We should expect spoilers and those opposed to negotiations and dialogue to continue to try and disrupt progress. Despite the security context, Mahdi believes the NRC can and should take place in Mogadishu. Holding the NRC in Mogadishu will change the thinking of Somalis for the better, according to Mahdi. He believes the area selected for the NRC -- the vehicle depot at the National Police Transportation Headquarters -- is in a peaceful area and can be adequately secured. Rehabilitation work has begun on the venue and Mahdi asked that we help push UNDP to release funds in order to complete the work on the venue. RANNEBERGER