Somalia--Divide and Conquer Dialogue

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002099 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SO ET SUBJECT: Somalia--Divide and Conquer Dialogue REF: A) Nairobi 2069 B) Nairobi 1996 C) Nairobi 1905 Classified by PolOff John O'Leary. Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (U) Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Yusuf met with politicians, intellectuals, and officials of the Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Ayr sub-clan on May 10 at the presidential palace in Mogadishu. Among the Ayr were Justice Minister Hassan Dimbil, political leader Mohamed Ulusow, and two members of parliament. Prime Minister Gedi also attended, along with other TFG officials and Ethiopian representatives. ¶2. (C) According to press reports, attendees discussed security in the Somali capital, and a TFG spokesman said that this meeting "was part of the president's plans to meet various Somali clans in relation to restoring peace in Somalia." According to contacts among the Ayr who attended, the meeting was cordial; and there were no complaints about Gedi's behavior as there had been in the previous encounters (reftels). ¶3. (C) In a conversation with PolOff, however, Ulusow was more specific. According to him, Yusuf wanted to know precisely why the Ayr were antagonistic toward the TFG. And the Ayr responded, according to Ulusow, that the TFG had shortchanged the sub-clan in power sharing and had branded its members as terrorists. He said that the Ayr representatives went on: --to assure Yusuf that they support the TFG and that they are prepared to participate in the National Reconciliation Conference; --to challenge the TFG to give the Ayr their fair share of meaningful government positions under the Transitional Federal Charter's 4.5 sharing formula; --to request that Yusuf intervene to stop harassment and intimidation against the Ayr by the government's security apparatus; and, --to call to Yusuf's attention the fact that the Hawiye/Haber Gedir were not represented on the National Governance Reconciliation Committee, despite their significant presence in Mogadishu. ¶4. (C) According to Ulusow, Yusuf indicated that he was unaware of the Ayr grievances and stated that the Ayr would get their fair share but must surrender their weapons and support the government. ¶5. (U) In a separate meeting on May 13, Yusuf met with approximately 70 members of the Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Saleebaan sub- clan. According to contacts in Mogadishu, the meeting focused on security in the city, power sharing, and ways the Saleebaan can support the TFG. According to a Hawiye elder who did not attend the meeting, the entire delegation appeared to be consistent TFG supporters. ¶6. (C) Comment. In these meetings, Yusuf and Gedi focused on specific Hawiye sub-clans--not the Hawiye elders who negotiated the truce in April and who met with the president and the prime minister earlier (reftels). The Hawiye reportedly believe the separate sub-clan/TFG meetings are a deliberate attempt by Yusuf to fracture the clan's fragile unity. President Yusuf implicitly acknowledged as much in a meeting with the Ambassador on May 15 while transiting Nairobi (reftel A). Considering the long history of brutal antagonism among Hawiye sub-clans, Yusuf may very well succeed in dividing his most dangerous enemy; but this tactic will not result in equitable power-sharing and reconciliation. End comment. Ranneberger