Somalia--Divide and Conquer Dialogue

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 002099

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SO ET
SUBJECT: Somalia--Divide and Conquer Dialogue

REF: A) Nairobi 2069 B) Nairobi 1996 C) Nairobi 1905

Classified by POLOFF John O'Leary. Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (U) Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Yusuf met
with politicians, intellectuals, and officials of the Hawiye/Haber
Gedir/Ayr sub-clan on May 10 at the presidential palace in
Mogadishu. Among the Ayr were Justice Minister Hassan Dimbil,
political leader Mohamed Ulusow, and two members of parliament.
Prime Minister Gedi also attended, along with other TFG officials
and Ethiopian representatives.


2. (C) According to press reports, attendees discussed security
in the Somali capital, and a TFG spokesman said that this meeting
"was part of the president's plans to meet various Somali clans in
relation to restoring peace in Somalia." According to contacts
among the Ayr who attended, the meeting was cordial; and there
were no complaints about Gedi's behavior as there had been in the
previous encounters (reftels).


3. (C) In a conversation with PolOff, however, Ulusow was more
specific. According to him, Yusuf wanted to know precisely why
the Ayr were antagonistic toward the TFG. And the Ayr responded,
according to Ulusow, that the TFG had shortchanged the sub-clan in
power sharing and had branded its members as terrorists. He said
that the Ayr representatives went on:

--to assure Yusuf that they support the TFG and that they are
prepared to participate in the National Reconciliation Conference;

--to challenge the TFG to give the Ayr their fair share of
meaningful government positions under the Transitional Federal
Charter's 4.5 sharing formula;

--to request that Yusuf intervene to stop harassment and
intimidation against the Ayr by the government's security
apparatus; and,

--to call to Yusuf's attention the fact that the Hawiye/Haber
Gedir were not represented on the National Governance
Reconciliation Committee, despite their significant presence in
Mogadishu.


4. (C) According to Ulusow, Yusuf indicated that he was unaware
of the Ayr grievances and stated that the Ayr would get their fair
share but must surrender their weapons and support the government.


5. (U) In a separate meeting on May 13, Yusuf met with
approximately 70 members of the Hawiye/Haber Gedir/Saleebaan sub-
clan. According to contacts in Mogadishu, the meeting focused on
security in the city, power sharing, and ways the Saleebaan can
support the TFG. According to a Hawiye elder who did not attend
the meeting, the entire delegation appeared to be consistent TFG
supporters.


6. (C) Comment. In these meetings, Yusuf and Gedi focused on
specific Hawiye sub-clans--not the Hawiye elders who negotiated
the truce in April and who met with the president and the prime
minister earlier (reftels). The Hawiye reportedly believe the
separate sub-clan/TFG meetings are a deliberate attempt by Yusuf
to fracture the clan's fragile unity. President Yusuf implicitly
acknowledged as much in a meeting with the Ambassador on May 15
while transiting Nairobi (reftel A). Considering the long history
of brutal antagonism among Hawiye sub-clans, Yusuf may very well
succeed in dividing his most dangerous enemy; but this tactic will
not result in equitable power-sharing and reconciliation. End
comment.

Ranneberger