Somalia--Peace Is Not Yet at Hand

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001918 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PREF ASEC MOPS SO ET SUBJECT: Somalia--Peace Is Not Yet at Hand REF: Nairobi 1905 Classified by PolOff John O'Leary. Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) Since the termination of fighting in Mogadishu last Thursday (4/26),the city has been unusually calm, in terms of combat; and the daily mortar, RPG, and small arms attacks have ceased--for the time being. Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Ethiopian troops reportedly are moving freely about the city; and Ugandan AMISOM troops have begun patrolling areas within the vicinity of their main camps at the port and the international airport. Although reported looting by TFG and Ethiopian soldiers following the cessation of fighting last week continues, it has subsided. In a telephone conversation on Wednesday (5/2),leading Hawiye elder Haji Abdi Iman Omar told the Ambassador that the clan elders had forced al-Shabaab leader Aden Ayro and his chief lieutenant to leave Mogadishu because they do not support his extremism. ¶2. (U) Mogadishu's main thoroughfares are reportedly open, though streets in the major combat zones remain closed to vehicle traffic. Residents are returning to Mogadishu from their makeshift camps throughout the country; and, according to press reports, markets are reopening or rebuilding. Transportation and construction costs are on the rise due to increased demand in both sectors. ¶3. (C) Despite TFG Prime Minister Gedi's declaration of victory last week and encouraging signs that civil life is returning to Mogadishu, contacts in the city remain concerned that fighting could resume with little warning. According to the Hawiye clan elders, their armed militia is intact and prepared to recommence combat, should political dialogue fail. Ugandan LtGen. Wamala Katumba warned in the press: "It's not yet time to celebrate". ¶4. (U) Indeed, multiple sources confirm that on Monday (4/30) an explosion killed and injured an unknown number of Ethiopian soldiers and destroyed their truck, part of a convoy about 90 KM west of Mogadishu on the Baidoa road. An Islamist website, almujaahid.com, quickly claimed responsibility for the destruction stating: "This kind of attack is what the mujahideen wanted and vowed that they would hunt and attack colonialist unbelievers anywhere -- in rural and urban areas. The new combat tactic the mujahideen have now started ensures that only the unbelievers' side suffers losses..." According to press reporting, former Islamic Courts leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former parliamentary speaker Sheikh Sharif Hassan Aden, speaking from their self-imposed exile in Asmara, stated that "resistance fighters" were adopting "hit-and-run" tactics. They urged "the Somali people never to kneel down in front of the Ethiopians." They also called for resistance against some 1,500 African Union peacekeepers already deployed in Somalia. ¶5. (C) Comment. Our contacts in Mogadishu indicate that tensions remain high in the city, although they believe TFG President Yusuf's willingness to meet with the Hawiye elders is a positive measure. If Ayro did indeed leave Mogadishu, we have no indication of where he is now. The explosion that killed the Ethiopian soldiers was probably a landmine, though we cannot exclude the possibility that spoilers employed an IED as implied in the "almujaahid" posting. The al-Shabaab certainly has the will to continue fighting the TFG/Ethiopians/AMISOM, and it probably has the materiel to engage in a hit-and-run campaign. Whether it can acquire sufficient popular support to undermine the TFG over the long-run will be largely determined by the TFG's efforts to ensure a credible National Reconciliation Conference and by its response to a potential guerilla campaign. End comment. Ranneberger