FRACTURED LUHYA IN WESTERN PROVINCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001830

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2027
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV KE
SUBJECT: FRACTURED LUHYA IN WESTERN PROVINCE
UNITING--AGAINST GOVERNMENT

REF: A. NAIROBI 0321

B. 06 NAIROBI 5393

Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons
1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The diverse Luhya groups in Kenya's
Western Province defy a single characterization. However,
disillusionment with the current administration's failure to
deliver on its campaign promises is creating fertile ground
for eager opposition ODM-K campaigners. END SUMMARY.

Diverse Political Landscape
--------------


2. (U) The Luhyas, accounting for approximately 14 percent
of Kenya's population, are a diverse community with no less
than 16 groups throughout Western Province with differing
dialects, customs, and traditions. A number of Luyhas were
quick to inform poloff, during a mid-April trip to Western
Province, that they were not beholden to an idea of "Luhya
Unity" such as that pursued by their homogenous and united
Luo neighbors to the south (ref A).


3. (U) Within the Luhya community, the Bukusu (centered
primarily around Bungoma District) and the Maragoli (centered
primarily around Sabatia District) comprise the largest
groups. These two groups dominate the political landscape
among the Luhyas and play important roles in determining the
political destiny of Western Province.

FORD-K For All? Or For The Benefit Of Bukusus?
-------------- -


4. (U) Bungoma District is the stronghold of the FORD-Kenya
party, which has a dispropotionately high number of Bukusu in
its top leadership. Both Ministers Musikari Kombo (Local
Government) and Mukhisa Kituyi (Trade Minister, formerly of
FORD-K but recently aligned with NARC-Kenya) are from the
Bukusu group. The predominance of the Bukusu over FORD-K
politics has engendered some resentment among the
under-represented Luhya groups, causing them to be somewhat
more receptive to competing political parties. (NOTE: During
the 2005 Constitutional Referendum, Bungoma District, with a
largely Bukusu population, was the only district in Western
Province to support the government-sponsored draft. The rest
of Western voted against. END NOTE.)

ODM-K: A Popular Choice
--------------


5. (U) Musalia Mudavadi, former Vice President under Moi,
and one of the current ODM-K presidential hopefuls, hails
from the Maragoli group, and represents an alternative
political choice for the Luhya in the form of ODM-K
(FORD-Kenya's previous competitor for Luhya votes was LDP an
ODM-K coalition member.) ODM-K appears to be gaining support
among Western's Luhyas. Poloff encountered another ODM-K
aspirant for the Presidency, William Ruto (a Kalenjin from
the Rift Valley),as he prepared his entourage (which
included an expensive SUV and massive loud speakers) for a
campaign rally in Busia. Several Busia contacts assured
poloff that Ruto, representing ODM-K, would receive a very
warm welcome, expected to draw almost twice the crowd as any
NARC-Kenya politician. This is despite the fact that Vice
President Moody Awori's (Narc-K) constituency being located
in Busia District. (NOTE: The majority of Awori's home
constituency voted against the government-backed draft
constitution in the referendum. END NOTE)


6. (U) The Busia contacts also predicted that 90 percent of
Western would vote for ODM-K, with the remaining 10 percent
split in favor of FORD-K over Narc-Kenya. Vice President
Moody Awori (formerly of LDP) and Trade Minister Kituyi may
succeed in attracting some support for Narc-Kenya among their
constituencies. The District Officer for Bungoma expressed
concern about the potential for conflict between Kombo and
Kituyi supporters during the upcoming elections, given the
close proximity of their two constituencies.

2007 v. 2002: Bigger Carrots, More Crowded Field
-------------- ---


7. (U) Several Luhyas took a moment to explain to poloff
that they expected this year's elections to differ from the

elections in 2002 due to the higher stakes for candidates
seeking a seat in Parliament. In 2002, members of Parliament
(MPs) received a monthly salary of roughly 70,000 Kenyan
Shillings (or slightly over 1,000 USD). Since entering
Parliament, members have voted themselves a series of pay
raises, resulting in the current salary of approximately
500,000 Kenyan Shillings (or over 7,000 USD) per month.
While the previous meager 70,000 did little to lure
successful businessmen and professionals into government
service, the current remuneration is turning out to be quite
a carrot.


8. (U) As a result, poloff was told, many more people will
be enticed into contesting for parliamentary seats. The
greater numbers of candidates contesting and the higher
stakes for winners raises significant concerns about the
heightened potential for conflict and electoral violence
during this year's heated election campaigns.


9. (C) The Bungoma District Commissioner told poloff that
abuse and misuse of Constituency Development Funds (CDF) by
incumbent Members of Parliament is likely to cost many, in
his estimate up to 60 percent, their seats in the coming
election. He provided an example of a recent complaint filed
with the police concerning nonexistent CDF assistance, in the
form of school materials and equipment, which despite being
recorded on paper as having been provided, in fact never
reached the intended schools. The alleged culprit? None
other than Trade Minister Kituyi, a man widely reported to
have enjoyed a monumental increase in his wealth since
ascending to his ministership. (COMMENT: we cannot
corroborate this account, and know of no evidence of
wrongdoing by Kituyi. The case is now in the courts. END
COMMENT.)

Government Sows Lofty Promises, Reaps Disappointment
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) The overwhelming sentiment expressed to poloff
throughout the province indicates that the Luyha communities
are disappointed by the failure of the NARC government to
deliver on their lofty election promises. Luhyas explained
that expectations were raised unrealistically high, with
promises of a new constitution within 100 days and the
creation of 500,000 new jobs per year. Current economic
growth, at about 6 percent per year, has not trickled down
to benefit the common Luhya. While many acknowledge that
some MPs have used CDF funds wisely, this positive
development is usually attributed to the MP and not the
government. Throughout the province, poloff observed a lack
of electricity and running water, poor roads, decrepit
bridges, and people struggling against poverty. Apart from
free primary education, the common Luhya, it was explained to
poloff, does not feel that he or she is better off than he or
she was in 2002. This lack of improvement in the lives of
the ordinary Luhya appears to make them more receptive to
supporting an alternative to the current government,
primarily in the form of ODM-K.


11. (SBU) COMMENT: Thus far, Kombo has kept his cards to
himself, giving no indication as to whether he will align the
weight of his FORD-Kenya party, and the significant numbers
of loyal FORD-Kenya voters, with either ODM-K or NARC-K. As
a member of Kibaki's administration, and after having
insisted on and won greater Luyha representation in the
December 2005 cabinet reshuffle (even going so far as to
refuse his ministership until his demands were met),Kombo
has several reasons to support Narc-K. However, he may find
the pro-ODM-K sentiment sweeping Western Province to be an
opportunity not to be missed in this year's election.
RANNEBERGER