POLITICS IN LUOLAND

UNCLAS NAIROBI 001789

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV KE
SUBJECT: POLITICS IN LUOLAND

REF: A. NAIROBI 321


B. 06 NAIROBI 5393


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The perception that the central government
is actively opposed to the interests of Nyanza Province's Luo
community and its leaders motivates many Luos to stand firmly
behind "their man" Raila Odinga. Support for Odinga's ODM-K
is widespread in Nyanza, but a pile-up in identification card
issuance by the central government threatens to
disenfranchise thousands of would be ODM-K voters in the next
election, raising the risk of conflict. END SUMMARY.

Self-Image: A Community of Victims
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2. (U) The Luos, comprising an estimated 14 percent of
Kenya's population primarily centered in Nyanza province, are
a strongly unified community held together by a common
language, customs, and history, including a self-image as a
community victimized by an unjust state. They form a unified
voting block which is staunchly supportive of Luoland's local
hero Raila Odinga. During several conversations with poloff,
Nyanza Luos expressed their strong support for ODM-K and
Odinga in particular. There is a strong perception among the
populace that the central government, where Luos are
under-represented, has systematically neglected the area for
political reasons, denying it much-needed development
assistance and improvements to infrastructure.

Local Near-Royals Offer Hope
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3. (SBU) It is difficult to substantiate claims that Nyanza
province, a traditional stronghold of the opposition, has
been deliberately neglected by the central government and
those in power. Nevertheless, the perception of this
ill-treatment is very real, as illustrated in numerous
conversations with Nyanza Luos, causing most people to pin
their hopes on a local leader. Odinga, the savvy political
heir of the almost royal Odinga family, offers himself as
Nyanza's chosen one. He frequently plays to the crowd
reinforcing the perception that Luos can only rely on each
other for assistance and not, as has been amply demonstrated,
the central government dominated by other tribes. (Note: The
November 2005 constitutional referendum had a polarizing
effect on the country, pitting GEMA (Kikuyu and ethnic
cousins) and non-GEMA against each other. In the case of the
Luos, this divide is part of a larger one, that between two
socio-linguistic groups, the Bantu (GEMA and others) and the
Nilotic (the Luo and their distant cousins). Kenyans voted
largely along these lines. Luos voted overwhelming against
the proposed constitution, which was viewed as advancing
Bantu/GEMA/Kikuyu interests at the expense of other groups.
They also saw the document as a double-cross of their hero,
Odinga (merely the latest double-cross of a prominent Luo),
who was meant according to the pre-2002 deal with Kibaki to
get the "strong Prime Minister" position in the planned new
constitution, a position Kibaki's inner circle edited out of
the draft before the voters saw it. End Note.)


4. (U) Given this history, the vast majority of Luos place
their faith in Odinga to lead them to\
]Q-;QQTt2Q Qyanza will
follow his lead.

Don't Bother Challenging Odinga Here
--------------


5. (SBU) While there is some discomfort with or resentment
over the dominance of the Odinga family (especially Raila and
his late father Oginga Odinga) over Luo politics, attempts to
present an alternative choice to voters have not been very
successful. Fellow Luo and Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju
attempted to provide Luos with an alternative to Odinga style
politics when he announced the creation of the People's
Progressive Party in autumn 2005. Despite some concern
within the Luo community over what some say is the
heavy-handedness of Odinga's political machine, the People's
Progressive Party attracted few adherents, and even fewer
voters supporting its platform in favor of the proposed
constitution. (Note: a District Officer for Kisumu Rural,
who was previously assigned in Bondo and Suba Districts,
described all three Nyanza Province districts to poloff as
"fiercely loyal" to Odinga.)


6. (SBU) "Outside" challengers fare even more poorly. In
Kisumu, the capital of Luoland, poloff one day observed an
enormous newly-erected billboard of Coast Province
presidential hopeful Najib Balala at one of the major traffic
intersections. On a return visit two days later, the
billboard was gone. The billboard was removed so quickly
that when poloff queried a local contact who frequently
travels that intersection about the sign, she said she had
never seen it.

Voter Registration: SNAFU or Plot?
--------------


7. (SBU) The perception that the central government seeks to
marginalize Nyanza's population could magnify the effects of
the abysmal turnout in the recently concluded voter
registration campaign. In Kisumu, as elsewhere in Nyanza,
the number of newly registered voters fell far short of
expectations. The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK)
estimated that 95,000 people were expected to register during
the drive, a number based on population growth figures and
previous voter registration drives. Three weeks into the
four-week campaign, just three percent of that number had
registered.


8. (SBU) The meager number of new voters is not the result
of a lack of civic interest, the Kisumu District Election
Coordinator (KDEC) assured poloff, but rather results from a
significant delay in the issuance of national identification
cards from the central government, which are necessary to
register to vote. According to the KDEC, the central
government agency responsible for issuing identification
cards was overwhelmed by the sheer number of nation-wide
requests for identification cards. The KDEC reported that
while the process should take 90 days, many people have been
waiting for over a year to receive their IDs. Significant
numbers of youth and other potential new voters risk being
disenfranchised in the upcoming elections due to ID issuance
problems.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) Delays in ID card issuance are reported throughout
Kenya, but the local perception of central government neglect
and the suspicion, voiced on a number of occasions to poloff,
that the central government is deliberately delaying ID
applications from opposition strongholds, could mean trouble.
The populace is quick to assume nefarious machinations are
driving the delay in national ID cards. Should an
influential figure such as Odinga accuse the government of
such a scheme, even without proof, violent conflict might
result.
RANNEBERGER