Somalia Fight Sharp but Short

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001715

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PREF ASEC MOPS SO ET
SUBJECT: Somalia Fight Sharp but Short

REF: Nairobi 1636

Classified by PolOff John O'Leary. Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (U) Press reporting and EMBASSY sources indicate fighting in
Mogadishu last night (4/17) between Ethiopian forces and
Hawiye/Haber Gedir militia, concentrated between the stadium and
the presidential palace compound (Villa Somalia). According to
the sources, there was heavy artillery and mortar shelling for
about an hour along with small arms fire, followed by two hours of
sporadic "explosions". There are unconfirmed press reports of at
least seven dead.


2. (U) There is apparent consensus among EMBASSY sources that the
fighting began when Hawiye militia noted an Ethiopian movement
between the two landmarks and opened fire. One theory holds that
the Ethiopians were trying to advance on Haber Gedir positions and
were fired upon. The prevailing theory, however, is that the
Ethiopians were merely moving troops and/or supplies between their
positions and that this movement was mistaken for an advance,
occasioning the attack.


3. (SBU) Truce talks between the Hawiye and the Ethiopians were
scheduled to resume today, but observers are concerned that last
night's fighting might cause one or both sides to cancel.
According to contacts, the sticking point in the talks remains the
Hawiye insistence that the Ethiopians withdraw from positions
around the stadium captured in the late-March fighting. The
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) continues to shun the truce
talks and its troops continue to skirmish with Hawiye militia. In
a prepared statement read today (4/18) at his biweekly press
conference, the TFG's "Ambassador" to Kenya, Mohamed Ali Nur
(Americo),mentioned that "...government officials initiated talks
with clan elders and so far had positive progress towards peace in
Mogadishu."


4. (C) Comment. No additional information about TFG "talks" with
clan elders is available. If Nur is referring to the Hawiye in
Mogadishu, such consultations are outside the framework of the
truce talks. More likely, if such talks have occurred, they are
probably inconsequential to the combat and may refer to matters
such as the issue of tariffs at the port of Mogadishu. Despite
the stalemate in the Ethiopian/Hawiye truce talks and last night's
fight between the two parties, neither side appears anxious to
resume full-scale battle. The continued refusal of the TFG to
participate in the talks, much less officially recognize them, is
spoiling prospects for a lasting solution in Mogadishu conducive
to meaningful national reconciliation. End comment.

Ranneberger