Somali Truce Holds Despite Fighting

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001636

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PREF ASEC MOPS SO ET
SUBJECT: Somali Truce Holds Despite Fighting

Classified by PolOff John O'Leary. Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (U) The truce between Hawiye clan militia and Ethiopian
troops in Mogadishu appears to be holding despite relatively heavy
small arms and mortar fire since Tuesday evening (4/12). The
fighting was mainly between Transitional Federal Government (TFG)
forces and Hawiye/Abgal militia, with occasional Ethiopian
artillery support for the TFG troops. As of noon local on April
13, sporadic firing is continuing in Mogadishu, but much reduced
from the previous two days.


2. (C) According to a press contact in northern Mogadishu, the
streets are virtually deserted, with little vehicle traffic. The
source indicated that nothing is coming in through the port or by
road; and the remaining residents fear food shortages. Multiple
sources indicate that residents continue to flee the city.
According to UN/OCHA, new pockets of Internally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) from Mogadishu have been located, and the international
relief community now believes Mogadishu IDPs may number between
200 thousand and 300 thousand. Some sources are now reporting
more than a thousand dead in the late-March and early-April
fighting in the city.


3. (C) Several Abgal sources have told us that this week's
fighting was a demonstration of solidarity with the broader clan,
as well as a rejection of TFG attempts to split the Hawiye. These
sources also stated that the fighting was an Abgal rebuff of
Deputy Defense Minister Jelle's April 8 call on the sub-clan to
drive the Hawiye/Haber Gedir sub-clan from Mogadishu. (Comment.
Jelle gave his speech to Abgal TFG supporters the day after AF A/S
Frazer visited Baidoa and met with TFG President Yusuf and Prime
Minister Gedi. Gedi reportedly attended the April 8 Abgal
meeting, but we do not know his reaction to the "call". The
Somali Ambassador to Kenya told us that Gedi, on his return to
Mogadishu, would issue a public statement designed to calm the
waters. In a meeting with Haber Gedir/Sa'ad leaders on Tuesday
(4/10),President Yusuf assured them that Jelle was conveying
Jelle's personal views and did not express TFG policy. End
comment.)


4. (C) The truce talks continue in Mogadishu between the
Ethiopians and a committee of Hawiye elders. According to sources
in Mogadishu, the talks have made little progress on substantive
issues beyond a simple cessation of fighting between the two
groups. A knowledgeable source told us that the Ethiopians are
insisting that the Hawiye bring their militia commanders to the
talks to facilitate military-related discussions; but the Hawiye
are hesitant to expose their military leaders to the Ethiopians.
According to this source, the elders instead will bring four
lower-ranking officers in hopes of satisfying the Ethiopian
negotiators. The TFG leadership continues to disavow the
Ethiopian-Hawiye truce.


5. (C) Comment. The Hawiye seem to be going out of their way to
exculpate the Ethiopians from the fighting of the last two days,
in spite of intermittent Ethiopian artillery support for TFG
forces. This unwillingness to blame the Ethiopians may be an
indication of just how reluctant the Hawiye are to continue the
fight. A long-time Somalia observer noted that in the "old days"
the fighting of the past few weeks would have occasioned all-out
clan warfare. That a truce continues to hold may demonstrate that
the Hawiye, and probably the other clans, have little desire to
continue the 16-year fight. Nonetheless, the current fighting and
the recent entrenching in Haber Gedir neighborhoods indicate that
the clan and its sub-clans will not be marginalized by the TFG and
will insist on meaningful reconciliation--if there is to be
lasting peace.

Ranneberger