Somali Truce Breaks Down -- Heavy Fighting

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001429

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET UG
SUBJECT: Somali Truce Breaks Down -- Heavy Fighting

Classified by PolOff John O'Leary. Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

Ref: A) Nairobi 1303 B) Nairobi 1401 C) Nairobi 1322


1. (U) According to multiple sources, early this morning, March
29, Ethiopian troops began deploying in Mogadishu neighborhoods
while Ethiopian armored vehicles and "technicals" (pick-up trucks
with mounted heavy weapons) took up positions at strategic
intersections. Around 0530, militia fighters attacked the
Ethiopians. As of 1000 local, the fighting appeared to be
concentrated around the stadium, the former defense ministry, and
the Hotel Ramadan in northeast Mogadishu. Contacts in the city
noted that the Ethiopians did not appear to be advancing. As of
1200 local, multiple contacts indicated that neither Transitional
Federal Government (TFG) nor Ugandan troops were involved in the
fighting. As of 1330 local, contacts in Mogadishu reported that
the Ethiopians were beginning to withdraw to their camps, except
around the stadium in the north where they appeared to be
encamping.


2. (U) Contacts reported Ethiopian helicopters flying over the
city throughout the morning. By mid-afternoon, contacts reported
that they were firing rockets and machine guns at targets in the
city.


3. (U) The Ethiopians reportedly had told the Hawiye clan elders
earlier in the week that they planned to deploy their troops
throughout the city. The elders rejected the deployment pending
mutually agreeable security arrangements, but the Ethiopians went
in anyway. The elders are blaming the Ethiopians for today's
fighting, saying the Ethiopians broke last week's truce by
deploying without clan consent.


4. (U) The identity of the militias engaging the Ethiopians is
unknown; but they are probably a mix of clan and radical Islamic
fighters.


5. (U) The media is reporting eight dead so far, but a final
casualty count probably will be considerably higher. The extent
of damage is unknown but probably will be significant.


6. (C) Comment. Numerous contacts in Mogadishu are calling
today's fighting the most serious in years. The Ethiopians appear
to have targeted areas inhabited primarily by the Hawiye clan's
Haber Gedir sub-clan, although an Abgal sub-clan area was also
involved. It is too soon to tell whether Ethiopia's action today
will keep the Hawiye/Abgal sub-clan on the sidelines or drive them
into the arms of their Haber Gedir cousins.


7. (C) Comment continued. Although Islamic radicals undoubtedly
took part in today's fighting, the battle was between a clan and
Ethiopian troops, not between Islamic terrorists and Ethiopians.
The absence of TFG troops from the battle may be the one bright
spot that leaves the door open to reconciliation--though that may
depend on how President Yusuf and his government react over the
next few days. Islamic radicals can be expected to use today's
events to "confirm" that Somalia is yet another Muslim-Christian
battleground and bolster their case for "jihad". End comment.

Ranneberger