KENYA'S FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES, DIPLOMATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 001221

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR AF/E AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017
TAGS: KE PREL SENV
SUBJECT: KENYA'S FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES, DIPLOMATIC
PRESENCE AND EXPANSION PLANS: PROMOTING ECONOMIC INTERESTS

Classified By: Ambassador Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Kenya has ambitious plans to open a number
of diplomatic missions around the world. The overriding goal
of Kenyan diplomacy is to promote economic development
through greater market access and increased investment and
remittances. Africa has replaced Europe as the chief
preoccupation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) PolCouns discussed Kenya's foreign policy priorities
in Africa, Asia and the Middle East with Tom Amolo, Director
of Political Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA). Amolo emphasized that the MFA's overriding foreign
policy goal is to promote Kenya's economic development. This
means supporting Kenyan business, generating economic
opportunities for Kenyan citizens and maintaining strong ties
with overseas Kenyans to encourage remittances and
investment. Amolo contrasted this single-minded focus on
development with the Moi era's emphasis on cold war alliances
and strategic interests. "Now that we have established our
presence in world affairs and secured our strategic
alliances, it is time to give primacy to promoting our
citizens' economic interests."


3. (U) Kenya has 42 bilateral diplomatic posts around the
world. Kenya's diplomatic presence consists of 16 posts in
Africa, 10 in Europe, 7 in Asia and Australia, 4 in North
America, 4 in the Middle East, and 1 in South America.
Foreign Minister Rafael Tuju stated his intent to reduce
costs and staffing at a number of missions in order to
partially defray costs of the MFA's ambitious plans to open
several new missions over the next year.

Focus on Africa
--------------


4. (U) Kenya's 16 diplomatic posts in Africa (38 percent of
the total),consist of 14 bilateral embassies, one consulate
(Juba),and one non-resident Ambassador (Somalia). Of
Kenya's 14 bilateral missions in Africa, three are to East
African Community states (Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda),two are
in other neighboring states (Ethiopia and Sudan),five are in
southern Africa (South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe,
Zambia),two are in North Africa (Egypt, Libya),one is in
West Africa (Nigeria),and one is in Central Africa
(Congo-Kinshasa).


5. (SBU) Amolo stated, "our engagement with Africa pays off.
We have huge trade surpluses with African states and huge
trade deficits with Europe and North America. Two-way trade
with Uganda, our biggest trading partner, comes to 45 billion
Kenyan Shillings (KShl),of which 42 billion consists of
Kenyan exports." (NOTE: 1 USD equals 69 KShl.) Amolo
contrasted this with the most recent trade figures with the
UK: overall 24 billion KShl, of which only 2 billion in
Kenyan exports. (Note: Amolo's figures reflect trade in
goods, discounting Kenya's considerable trade surplus in
services with Europe and North America, principally tourism.)



6. (SBU) Amolo then spoke of the role of diplomacy. "Our
job is to use diplomacy to open up countries that prevent us
from using our comparative advantage." Amolo cited the
example of Ethiopia, "a market of 75 million people, but our
two way trade is valued at only 200 million KShl. The cost
of our goods is kept artificially high through non-tariff
barriers." Amolo said that Kenyan diplomats press Ethiopian
officials for greater market access at every opportunity.
Amolo explained that Kenya was quite prepared to trade
certain policy positions in international fora for desired
commercial access.


7. (SBU) Amolo pointed out that Kenya's prime motivation for
its active involvement in settling conflicts in Sudan and
Somalia is the potential market these countries offer should
conditions there normalize. "The politics of the region too
often hinder trade. We seek to avoid seriously annoying
anyone so as to keep the door open to our business
interests." Amolo pointed to recent success stories of
Kenyans trading in Eritrea as an example of the rewards for
refusing to align with any side in regional conflicts or to

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be outspoken as regards other countries' internal policies.
He indicated that Eritrea too is on the list of potential new
Kenyan missions, but not among the top contenders.


8. (SBU) Amolo remarked that "Kenya Airways shows the way.
They are increasing profits by serving African destinations.
They are now the principal link between West Africa and East
Asia, replacing European transportation hubs. Whenever
Kenyan Airways opens a new route, traders immediately fly in
to identify which Kenyan goods are most competitive in that
market. We in MFA see our role as getting Kenyan Airways the
access it needs to open new routes."


9. (C) Amolo discussed trade rival South Africa, "our
emerging strategic competitor." He said, "our relations with
South Africa are collegial for the most part, but they
quickly erect trade barriers when they see us coming. They
even use their influence in the region to discourage others
in their region from trading with us." As a result, the MFA
has decided to "beef up" Kenya's diplomatic presence in South
Africa. "We are increasing the number of Kenyan diplomats
assigned to South Africa and ensuring they are our best and
brightest, as the President himself instructed us to do. We
will open a consulate in Johannesburg."


10. (SBU) PolCouns asked Amolo about Kenya's decision to
suspend relations with Western Sahara in favor of relations
with Morocco. Amolo replied, "that wasn't easy to do, very
delicate, because Western Sahara is a member of the African
Union and Morocco is not." It was imperative, however,
because Morocco offered another sizeable market. "Morocco's
Foreign Minister will visit us on 17 and 18 March to discuss
areas of potential cooperation with the Foreign Minister and
the President." (Comment: Translation: reward program for
dropping relations with Western Sahara. End Comment.) Amolo
added, "if all goes well, a visit by the King will follow."



11. (SBU) Elsewhere in Africa, Amolo cited Senegal and Ghana
as eventual sites of Kenyan diplomatic missions due to their
status as West African trade and transportation hubs. Amolo
noted, "Libya has huge potential as a market for our goods
and services. We will strengthen our mission there as well."



12. (SBU) Amolo discussed the need to open a mission in
Bujumbura now that Burundi, like Rwanda, had joined the East
African Community. He also noted the large Kenyan
communities in certain African countries, such as Botswana
and Rwanda, where both Kenyan professionals and business
people have been welcomed in large numbers. He sees the
beginning of a significant Kenyan community forming in
southern Sudan.


13. (SBU) Aside from trade promotion, Amolo said Kenya's
second diplomatic priority was "safeguarding long-term
strategic interests, especially water." In that regard,
Kenya places a high value on the discussions held under the
auspices of the Nile Basin Initiative, which is an
organization that brings together all ten Nile riparian
states. Amolo said Kenya had made huge strides in recent
years in its relations with Egypt as concerns Nile waters
(including Lake Victoria),opening the Egyptian market, and
receiving development assistance (school construction,
provision of medical doctors). (Note: Trade ministry
contacts indicate unease with the penetration of Egyptian
imports, claiming they are subsidized and threatening to
impose countervailing duties. End Note.)

Europe
--------------


14. (U) Kenya's diplomatic presence in Europe largely mirrors
the list of top tourist origin countries and development
partners. These include the UK, Belgium, Germany,
Switzerland, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Sweden and
Austria. Kenya also has representation in Russia. European
posts account for a quarter of all Kenya's diplomatic
missions. The MFA has announced plans to open embassies in
Ireland and Spain. The European posts are those most subject
to belt tightening to assist the MFA in funding the planned
new missions. The major task of Kenya's European missions is

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to promote Kenya as a tourist destination, expand the market
for Kenyan goods, provide services to overseas Kenyan
communities and facilitate high level discussions on
development cooperation.

Asia & Australia
--------------


15. (U) Kenya has seven diplomatic missions in Asia and
Australia (16 percent of all posts): China, Australia,
Pakistan, Malaysia, India, Japan and Thailand. The MFA
announced plans to open an embassy this year in Korea. Amolo
indicated that the MFA also wishes to open a consulate in
Guangzhou, China and to increase staffing in Malaysia and
Thailand due to the sharply rising trade between Kenya and
these countries.


16. (SBU) Amolo praised China's cooperation with Kenya.
"They have opened their market to our goods and they make
tremendous contributions to our infrastructure, building
roads, schools, wells and many other projects." Amolo noted,
"the Chinese are purchasing office space, not renting. This
indicates to us that they plan to continue at this pace over
the long-term." (Note: Trade Minister Kituyi is more
skeptical of Chinese investment in Kenya and of the openness
of China's market to Kenyan exports. End Note.) Amolo
mentioned that Jia Qinglin, Chairman of the People's
Political Consultative Conference and fourth ranking member
of the Chinese leadership, would visit Kenya on 4 April to
meet President Kibaki and open a Chinese-built road.

Middle East
--------------


17. (C) Kenya has missions in Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and
Iran. The MFA announced plans to open embassies in Kuwait
and Oman. Amolo commented, "Israel is a key geo-strategic
partner. It is a suitable counterweight for us to those
states in our region that do not share our values."
(Comment: The implication refers primarily to Sudan. End
Comment.) Amolo added that Kenya has long had very close
security and intelligence cooperation with Israel,
interacting at all levels and in many sectors. When Foreign
Minister Tuju recently visited Israel, he was well received
by all the leadership.


18. (SBU) As for Iran, Amolo continued, they are a major oil
supplier for Kenya. "Our economic revival program requires
that we do business with everyone we can." Amolo noted, Iran
has helped Kenya with medical doctors and low cost oil. Our
trade is increasing. The Arab Gulf states, Amolo said,
employ many Kenyans in service industries (airlines, hotels,
etc.),especially UAE and Qutar. Remittances from Kenyans
working in the gulf countries have tripled in the last ten
years. Our mission to the UAE serves those Kenyan
communities.

North & South America
--------------


19. (U) Kenya has four North American posts (Washington,
Ottawa, New York and Los Angeles) and one South American post
(Brazil). Amolo praised the U.S. as Kenya's closest
strategic partner. Citing the large Kenyan community in the
U.S., Amolo said that the ministry aims to eventually open
consulates in Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago, Minneapolis, San
Francisco and Houston. Until such time as funds are
available to establish these consulates, the MFA will seek to
appoint honorary consuls in each of these cities. Despite
the costs involved in setting up consulates, Amolo maintained
that they will generate more revenue for the government than
they cost due to increased remittances, investment and
tourism.

Comment: MFA Priorities Fit GOK's "Working Nation" Slogan,
But Complicate USG Efforts to Win GoK Diplomatic Support
-------------- --------------


20. (C) The MFA's focus on opening markets, encouraging
remittances and promoting investment is in line with the
government's "working nation" slogan. It reads like a page
taken from the Chinese playbook. While an aggressive,

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commercial interests-driven foreign policy can contribute to
Kenya building up its middle class, increasing economic
opportunity for its citizens and solidifying its democracy,
it bodes ill for USG prospects to gain Kenya's active support
in international fora for issues relating to such trade
partners as China and Iran.
RANNEBERGER