KENYA'S FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES, DIPLOMATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 001221 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR AF/E AND INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017 TAGS: KE PREL SENV SUBJECT: KENYA'S FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES, DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE AND EXPANSION PLANS: PROMOTING ECONOMIC INTERESTS Classified By: Ambassador Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Kenya has ambitious plans to open a number of diplomatic missions around the world. The overriding goal of Kenyan diplomacy is to promote economic development through greater market access and increased investment and remittances. Africa has replaced Europe as the chief preoccupation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) PolCouns discussed Kenya's foreign policy priorities in Africa, Asia and the Middle East with Tom Amolo, Director of Political Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). Amolo emphasized that the MFA's overriding foreign policy goal is to promote Kenya's economic development. This means supporting Kenyan business, generating economic opportunities for Kenyan citizens and maintaining strong ties with overseas Kenyans to encourage remittances and investment. Amolo contrasted this single-minded focus on development with the Moi era's emphasis on cold war alliances and strategic interests. "Now that we have established our presence in world affairs and secured our strategic alliances, it is time to give primacy to promoting our citizens' economic interests." ¶3. (U) Kenya has 42 bilateral diplomatic posts around the world. Kenya's diplomatic presence consists of 16 posts in Africa, 10 in Europe, 7 in Asia and Australia, 4 in North America, 4 in the Middle East, and 1 in South America. Foreign Minister Rafael Tuju stated his intent to reduce costs and staffing at a number of missions in order to partially defray costs of the MFA's ambitious plans to open several new missions over the next year. Focus on Africa -------------- ¶4. (U) Kenya's 16 diplomatic posts in Africa (38 percent of the total),consist of 14 bilateral embassies, one consulate (Juba),and one non-resident Ambassador (Somalia). Of Kenya's 14 bilateral missions in Africa, three are to East African Community states (Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda),two are in other neighboring states (Ethiopia and Sudan),five are in southern Africa (South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Zambia),two are in North Africa (Egypt, Libya),one is in West Africa (Nigeria),and one is in Central Africa (Congo-Kinshasa). ¶5. (SBU) Amolo stated, "our engagement with Africa pays off. We have huge trade surpluses with African states and huge trade deficits with Europe and North America. Two-way trade with Uganda, our biggest trading partner, comes to 45 billion Kenyan Shillings (KShl),of which 42 billion consists of Kenyan exports." (NOTE: 1 USD equals 69 KShl.) Amolo contrasted this with the most recent trade figures with the UK: overall 24 billion KShl, of which only 2 billion in Kenyan exports. (Note: Amolo's figures reflect trade in goods, discounting Kenya's considerable trade surplus in services with Europe and North America, principally tourism.) ¶6. (SBU) Amolo then spoke of the role of diplomacy. "Our job is to use diplomacy to open up countries that prevent us from using our comparative advantage." Amolo cited the example of Ethiopia, "a market of 75 million people, but our two way trade is valued at only 200 million KShl. The cost of our goods is kept artificially high through non-tariff barriers." Amolo said that Kenyan diplomats press Ethiopian officials for greater market access at every opportunity. Amolo explained that Kenya was quite prepared to trade certain policy positions in international fora for desired commercial access. ¶7. (SBU) Amolo pointed out that Kenya's prime motivation for its active involvement in settling conflicts in Sudan and Somalia is the potential market these countries offer should conditions there normalize. "The politics of the region too often hinder trade. We seek to avoid seriously annoying anyone so as to keep the door open to our business interests." Amolo pointed to recent success stories of Kenyans trading in Eritrea as an example of the rewards for refusing to align with any side in regional conflicts or to NAIROBI 00001221 002 OF 004 be outspoken as regards other countries' internal policies. He indicated that Eritrea too is on the list of potential new Kenyan missions, but not among the top contenders. ¶8. (SBU) Amolo remarked that "Kenya Airways shows the way. They are increasing profits by serving African destinations. They are now the principal link between West Africa and East Asia, replacing European transportation hubs. Whenever Kenyan Airways opens a new route, traders immediately fly in to identify which Kenyan goods are most competitive in that market. We in MFA see our role as getting Kenyan Airways the access it needs to open new routes." ¶9. (C) Amolo discussed trade rival South Africa, "our emerging strategic competitor." He said, "our relations with South Africa are collegial for the most part, but they quickly erect trade barriers when they see us coming. They even use their influence in the region to discourage others in their region from trading with us." As a result, the MFA has decided to "beef up" Kenya's diplomatic presence in South Africa. "We are increasing the number of Kenyan diplomats assigned to South Africa and ensuring they are our best and brightest, as the President himself instructed us to do. We will open a consulate in Johannesburg." ¶10. (SBU) PolCouns asked Amolo about Kenya's decision to suspend relations with Western Sahara in favor of relations with Morocco. Amolo replied, "that wasn't easy to do, very delicate, because Western Sahara is a member of the African Union and Morocco is not." It was imperative, however, because Morocco offered another sizeable market. "Morocco's Foreign Minister will visit us on 17 and 18 March to discuss areas of potential cooperation with the Foreign Minister and the President." (Comment: Translation: reward program for dropping relations with Western Sahara. End Comment.) Amolo added, "if all goes well, a visit by the King will follow." ¶11. (SBU) Elsewhere in Africa, Amolo cited Senegal and Ghana as eventual sites of Kenyan diplomatic missions due to their status as West African trade and transportation hubs. Amolo noted, "Libya has huge potential as a market for our goods and services. We will strengthen our mission there as well." ¶12. (SBU) Amolo discussed the need to open a mission in Bujumbura now that Burundi, like Rwanda, had joined the East African Community. He also noted the large Kenyan communities in certain African countries, such as Botswana and Rwanda, where both Kenyan professionals and business people have been welcomed in large numbers. He sees the beginning of a significant Kenyan community forming in southern Sudan. ¶13. (SBU) Aside from trade promotion, Amolo said Kenya's second diplomatic priority was "safeguarding long-term strategic interests, especially water." In that regard, Kenya places a high value on the discussions held under the auspices of the Nile Basin Initiative, which is an organization that brings together all ten Nile riparian states. Amolo said Kenya had made huge strides in recent years in its relations with Egypt as concerns Nile waters (including Lake Victoria),opening the Egyptian market, and receiving development assistance (school construction, provision of medical doctors). (Note: Trade ministry contacts indicate unease with the penetration of Egyptian imports, claiming they are subsidized and threatening to impose countervailing duties. End Note.) Europe -------------- ¶14. (U) Kenya's diplomatic presence in Europe largely mirrors the list of top tourist origin countries and development partners. These include the UK, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Sweden and Austria. Kenya also has representation in Russia. European posts account for a quarter of all Kenya's diplomatic missions. The MFA has announced plans to open embassies in Ireland and Spain. The European posts are those most subject to belt tightening to assist the MFA in funding the planned new missions. The major task of Kenya's European missions is NAIROBI 00001221 003 OF 004 to promote Kenya as a tourist destination, expand the market for Kenyan goods, provide services to overseas Kenyan communities and facilitate high level discussions on development cooperation. Asia & Australia -------------- ¶15. (U) Kenya has seven diplomatic missions in Asia and Australia (16 percent of all posts): China, Australia, Pakistan, Malaysia, India, Japan and Thailand. The MFA announced plans to open an embassy this year in Korea. Amolo indicated that the MFA also wishes to open a consulate in Guangzhou, China and to increase staffing in Malaysia and Thailand due to the sharply rising trade between Kenya and these countries. ¶16. (SBU) Amolo praised China's cooperation with Kenya. "They have opened their market to our goods and they make tremendous contributions to our infrastructure, building roads, schools, wells and many other projects." Amolo noted, "the Chinese are purchasing office space, not renting. This indicates to us that they plan to continue at this pace over the long-term." (Note: Trade Minister Kituyi is more skeptical of Chinese investment in Kenya and of the openness of China's market to Kenyan exports. End Note.) Amolo mentioned that Jia Qinglin, Chairman of the People's Political Consultative Conference and fourth ranking member of the Chinese leadership, would visit Kenya on 4 April to meet President Kibaki and open a Chinese-built road. Middle East -------------- ¶17. (C) Kenya has missions in Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The MFA announced plans to open embassies in Kuwait and Oman. Amolo commented, "Israel is a key geo-strategic partner. It is a suitable counterweight for us to those states in our region that do not share our values." (Comment: The implication refers primarily to Sudan. End Comment.) Amolo added that Kenya has long had very close security and intelligence cooperation with Israel, interacting at all levels and in many sectors. When Foreign Minister Tuju recently visited Israel, he was well received by all the leadership. ¶18. (SBU) As for Iran, Amolo continued, they are a major oil supplier for Kenya. "Our economic revival program requires that we do business with everyone we can." Amolo noted, Iran has helped Kenya with medical doctors and low cost oil. Our trade is increasing. The Arab Gulf states, Amolo said, employ many Kenyans in service industries (airlines, hotels, etc.),especially UAE and Qutar. Remittances from Kenyans working in the gulf countries have tripled in the last ten years. Our mission to the UAE serves those Kenyan communities. North & South America -------------- ¶19. (U) Kenya has four North American posts (Washington, Ottawa, New York and Los Angeles) and one South American post (Brazil). Amolo praised the U.S. as Kenya's closest strategic partner. Citing the large Kenyan community in the U.S., Amolo said that the ministry aims to eventually open consulates in Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago, Minneapolis, San Francisco and Houston. Until such time as funds are available to establish these consulates, the MFA will seek to appoint honorary consuls in each of these cities. Despite the costs involved in setting up consulates, Amolo maintained that they will generate more revenue for the government than they cost due to increased remittances, investment and tourism. Comment: MFA Priorities Fit GOK's "Working Nation" Slogan, But Complicate USG Efforts to Win GoK Diplomatic Support -------------- -------------- ¶20. (C) The MFA's focus on opening markets, encouraging remittances and promoting investment is in line with the government's "working nation" slogan. It reads like a page taken from the Chinese playbook. While an aggressive, NAIROBI 00001221 004 OF 004 commercial interests-driven foreign policy can contribute to Kenya building up its middle class, increasing economic opportunity for its citizens and solidifying its democracy, it bodes ill for USG prospects to gain Kenya's active support in international fora for issues relating to such trade partners as China and Iran. RANNEBERGER