FEWSNET REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY PRESENTATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 001077 SIPDIS AIDAC USAID/DCHA/AA FOR WGARVELINK, LROGERS DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, CGOTTSCHALK, KCHANNELL DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, TANDERSON, TMCRAE AFR/EA FOR KNELSON ADDIS FOR MJENNINGS, SPOLAND BUJUMBURA FOR PMOLLER, RLUNEBURG DAR ES SALAAM FOR PWHITE, MLATOUR DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN KAMPALA FOR DMUTAZINDWA, RSEMPA, WWELZ KHARTOUM FOR ARAHMAN, PFESENDEN KIGALI FOR RWASHBURN USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG GENEVA FOR NKYLOH BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER NSC FOR TSHORTLEY SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID XA ZI KPRP SUBJECT: FEWSNET REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY PRESENTATION FOR USAID OFFICES IN KENYA ¶1. USAID/East Africa Regional Economic Growth and Integration (REGI) and Regional Food for Peace (FFP) Offices have cultivated a productive relationship with the regional FEWSNET Office. In that light, FEWSNET has been holding periodic briefings for USAID's offices (USAID/EA, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, OFDA) in Kenya. These briefings are designed to highlight various climatic issues and their impact on food security in East Africa, Great Lakes, and Horn of Africa regions. On February 1, 2007 FEWSNET held a joint presentation with IGAD Climate Predications and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and FAO entitled, "Food Security and Humanitarian Situation Briefing" Horn of Africa and Great Lakes Region. The information session provided comprehensive highlights of key issues for the various regions including updates on the recent flooding in Somalia, Kenya and Burundi; the pastoralist livelihood crisis; Rift Valley Fever. In addition, the discussions covered the regional markets outlook, climate change, and transitory versus structural causes of food insecurity. "Surge" funding has enabled FEWSNET to undertake several analyses on the broader picture of emerging trends in food security, including its study of regional markets. Regrettably, USAID/EA does not have funds in the FY 2008 budget for regional FEWSNET or ICPAC. GREATER HORN OF AFRICA: RECENT SHOCKS -- RIFT VALLEY FEVER, CIVIL CONFLICTS, FLOODS AND EL-NINO UPDATE ¶2. Tropical cyclone developments in the Indian Ocean are occurring due to ocean warming resulting in heavy rains off the East African coast and neighboring areas. The main rain belt is currently over southern African states which has exhibited above-normal rainfall performance between October 2006 and January 2007. Moderate El-Nino conditions occurred which brought heavier than normal rainfall in the Horn of Africa countries although the rains were less in intensity compared to those seen during the 1997/98 El-Nino episode. These same areas were dealing with below- average rainfall and in some areas a serious drought, during the period of October 2005 - March 2006 that affected about 10 million pastoralists. FEWSNET reported that the seasonal rains of October - December 2006 were above-normal and largely beneficial for the worst drought-affected areas. However the heavy rains resulted in floods in certain zones causing serious damage in parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania that affected an estimated 2 million people. ¶3. Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne virus that attacks domestic livestock and can be passed on to humans. There have been confirmed cases in Kenya where over 100 human deaths have been reported. Somalia and Tanzania have suspected cases while no cases have been identified in Ethiopia so far. Vaccine availability continues to remain a challenge for prevention purposes. The fallout of quarantining and limiting the risks of this disease is negatively impacting regional livestock markets due to the restrictions on trade and slaughter NAIROBI 00001077 002 OF 004 of animals since December 2006. Livestock abortions are frustrating the re-building of herds in drought-affected areas. As emergency levels escalate for RVF, the tightening of international ban on livestock exports is likely, causing a more severe market disruption. ¶4. Most pastoral areas are starting to recover from the 2005/2006 drought but more good seasons are needed. The improving rangelands bring about improvements in livestock production, however these new shocks threaten the recovery process. Eastern Kenya (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Ijara, Tana River districts),south and central Somalia (Gedo, Juba Valley, and parts of Bay, Bakol and Hiran regions) and southeastern region of Ethiopia (parts of Somali, Oromiya, and Afar regions) share contiguous borders and have significant pockets of extreme food insecurity. COUNTRY SUMMARIES: ETHIOPIA, SOMALIA, KENYA, DJIBOUTI, UGANDA, SUDAN, RWANDA, TANZANIA, BURUNDI ¶5. The FEWSNET presentation provided a round up of highlights of the food security situation in individual countries in the region. Alert levels Emergency, Warning, Watch, and No Alert, follow FEWSNET's food security status classifications, indicating severity of food insecurity. The USAID/FFP emergency and development program contributions for FY 06 are noted as a contextual reference. The data are from the Food for Peace Information System (FFPIS),October 17, 2006. ETHIOPIA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as about 2.3 million people require emergency food assistance): Despite the overall improvement in food security situation, there are about 10 million people requiring humanitarian assistance, about 2.3 million of whom need emergency food assistance. The numbers remains high due to food insecure pastoral areas; slow recovery from floods and hailstorms; record high cereal prices; terms of trade that favor grain suppliers over pastoralists; tribal and resourced based conflicts in Oromiya and Somali regions and restricted cross border trade. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $146,382,000. However, there was carry-over from the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust). SOMALIA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as about 1 million people require humanitarian assistance): Since December 2006, the conflict continues to escalate causing internal displacement of 400,000 people and resulting in border closures with Somalia. In addition, civil insecurity has resulted in death, loss and destruction of livelihood assets that have implications for the severity, magnitude, scale and duration of food insecurity and for the degree of resilience and abilities to manage future shocks. There is an unknown camel disease that causes sudden collapse and death of camels and mortality in 10 to 20 percent of the herd. Reported cases have been scattered, not affecting all pastoral households. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $82,178,000.) NAIROBI 00001077 003.2 OF 004 KENYA - EMERGENCY STATUS (as over 2.0 million people require emergency assistance, although this figure is expected to significantly come down after the February 2007 food security assessment): Food insecurity remains highly precarious for pastoralists in the east after the outbreak of the RVF. Other pastoralist areas in the northwest have experienced marked improvements in food security. However, several more good seasons are required for recovery to take hold. Severely drought- affected farm households in the southeast and coast show improvements in food security. National maize output for both seasons estimated to be 3 million MT, nearly 20 percent higher than normal. Outlook for eastern pastoralists depends on verifiable eradication of the RVF. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $94,794,000.) DJIBOUTI - WARNING STATUS: Malnutrition rates are reported to be above international standards with Global Acute Malnutrition (weight/height) at 20.4 percent and Severe Acute Malnutrition at 7.1 percent. However, the survey was done in late 2006 by government and partners at the height of last year's drought, and so may have come down. Pastoralists in the northwest and Dikhil district face serious stress due to the prolonged dry period of October - February affecting 35,000 people. Urban consumer prices are beyond the affordability of poor households. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $2,140,000.) UGANDA - WATCH STATUS: Northern districts remain food insecure. Second crop planting season improved due to extended rains in bimodal areas. Uncertainty over the peace process is slowing the pace of IDP returns. Over 500,000 people in the largely pastoral Karamoja Region face acute food shortages and civil insecurity related to government disarmament efforts, and the situation is deteriorating. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $55,849,000.) SOUTHERN SUDAN - WATCH STATUS: Expected increase in food supply resulting from improved harvests. Fair 2006 crop harvests and good off-farm food sources make 2007 a better year than the past five years. Population census planned in November 2007 that will likely increase because of the returning population. There were 300,000 returnees in 2006 and another 350,000 expected in 2007. Since July 2006, insecurity related to the Uganda peace process is disrupting trade and movements and could potential affect the food security in Central Equatoria as armed conflicts have disrupted trade and movement since July 2006. (USAID/FFP contribution to Sudan in FY 06 was $402,947,000.) RWANDA - NO ALERT: Low to moderate food insecurity risk. Rains were late but December - January harvest season was good. There is a national food deficit (153,000 MTs) but imports are expected to fill the gap. In the Congo-Nile Ridge and Southern Plateau, livelihoods, which are usually chronically food insecure due to land degradation/poor soils, high population density, moderate food insecurity exists, while in Bugesera uneven distribution of rains has caused crop production NAIROBI 00001077 004 OF 004 shortfalls. Most of the country continues to face higher than normal food prices. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $20,773,000.) TANZANIA - NO ALERT: Generally food secure. Good harvest expected for the February/March 2007 crop, which accounts for 30 percent of annual production. There was localized flooding along river banks due to heavy rains in Mwanza, Shinyanga and Dodoma, but not resulting in a significant humanitarian situation. There is an outbreak of Banana Wilt in Mara and Kagera regions along with some threats of RVF following the flooding. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $14,055,000.) BURUNDI - (No FEWSNET Classification): Delayed start of rainy season, uneven distribution of rains followed by heavy rains and flooding has caused severe disruption in crop production. The anticipated below-normal production for agricultural season will cause seed deficit for the principal planting season. Cassava production has been severely impacted by cassava mosaic disease since 2005. Populations are practicing distress strategies such as asset sales and eating one meal/day. EA/USAID/REGI and FFP recommend expanding FEWSNET services into Burundi. (USAID/FFP contribution in FY 06 was $15,013,000.) ¶6. USAID/EA appreciates the insightful and comprehensive briefing that the FEWSNET Regional Office, with support from ICPAC and FAO offices, provided on food security issues in the Greater East Africa and Horn of Africa Regions. FEWSNET is a valued partner of the USAID/EA/REGI and FFP offices, providing in-depth analytic work on food security and support to making better food aid decisions. We also expect FEWSNET to continue to play a very constructive role in refocusing food security monitoring and assessment on new integrated sectoral analysis and common action, such as in the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) system, which incorporates humanitarian and livelihoods classification towards early response in the Horn of Africa region. ¶7. Ironically, East Africa regional funding for FEWSNET in FY 2008 is zeroed out under the Operational Plan, although the opportunities for fostering regional value- added and coherence are greater than ever. RANNENBERGER