SOMALIA: JANUARY 5 MEETING OF THE INTERNATIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000103

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
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LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET KE
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: JANUARY 5 MEETING OF THE INTERNATIONAL
CONTACT GROUP

REF: A. NAIROBI 91

` B. 06 NAIROBI 5405


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The recent meeting of the International
Contact Group (ICG) on Somalia centered on supporting Somalia
at this crucial moment, in particular with respect to
consolidating stability through an inclusive political
process, security, and humanitarian and development
assistance. The delegates urged reconciliation and immediate
international support for the Transitional Federal
Institutions (TFIs). The ICG agreed that effective TFIs
based on broad-based dialogue are the key to a stable,
secure, and democratic Somalia, and to that end called for
the urgent deployment of a stabilization force in Somalia
based on UNSC resolution 1725 and called on donor partners to
provide immediate capacity-building assistance. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The ICG met January 5 in Nairobi, co-chaired by
Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer and Kenyan Minister for
Foreign Affairs Raphael Tuju. Norway, Sweden, the European
Union, Italy, Tanzania, the United Kingdom, the African
Union, IGAD, the United Nations, and the League of Arab
states attended the meeting. Reftel includes the text of the
communiqu of the ICG meeting. Tanzania agreed to host the
next meeting of the ICG in Dar es Salaam in one month with
the precise date to be determined.

"A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY"
--------------


3. (SBU) In their opening messages, Assistant Secretary
Frazer and Foreign Minister Tuju highlighted the need for the
current meeting to identify ways to assist Somalia. A/S
Frazer outlined three ways in which the ICG could help
Somalia move forward: support the government in initiating a
truly inclusive process for reconciliation, identify concrete
assistance mechanisms, and encourage the immediate deployment
of a stabilization force. FM Tuju welcomed Uganda's decision
to deploy troops to Somalia on behalf of IGAD and the AU, and
called for specific commitments of financial assistance to
help build the capacity of the TFIs. Responding to A/S
Frazer's well-received announcement of USD 40 million in new
assistance to Somalia, Tuju likewise pledged Kenya's
continued assistance.


4. (SBU) In making an introductory remark to the ICG,
Somalia President Abdullahi Yusuf continued the theme of the
current situation in Somalia as an opportunity, telling the
ICG that his government would employ an inclusive approach to
create a "new Somalia" based on broad-based governance,
collective security and stability. Yusuf highlighted as a
new beginning the TFIs' recent success in removing the
Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) and taking control of the
country. The President stated that the ICG's assistance in
deploying troops as provided for in UNSC 1725, supporting
government institutions, and providing humanitarian aid would
enable the TFIs to meet their goals.

DIALOGUE AND RECONCILIATION
--------------


5. (SBU) Among the ICG delegates, there was general
agreement with A/S Frazer's statement that the TFIs need to
pursue a genuine reconciliation process which promotes
inclusive dialogue between all elements of Somali society.
However, reconciliation, it was agreed, needs to begin first
and foremost within the TFIs. The UNPOS delegate stressed
the need for the international community to encourage key
actors, namely the President and the Prime Minister, to
resume dialogue and work together to maintain the legitimacy
and credibility of the TFIs. Sweden suggested that convening
parliament in Mogadishu is one way to bring the various
factions within the TFIs together to promote dialogue.


6. (SBU) Delegates also stressed the importance of the
resumption of dialogue and reconciliation between the TFIs
and other representative groups which are not currently
represented in the TFIs among civil society, the business
community, women's groups, and religious leaders. The

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delegate for the Arab League emphasized the need to also
include former elements of the CIC, arguing that to exclude
them would have negative consequences for the achievement of
peace and stability in Somalia.

ASSISTANCE
--------------


7. (SBU) ICG delegates concluded that support for the TFIs'
operational capacity is essential to peace and security in
Somalia. Responding to the co-chairs' and Yusuf's appeal for
financial support, several ICG members called for a donors'
conference. Members' ability to help the TFIs show immediate
improvements on the ground would give a boost to Somali
confidence in the TFIs. A/S Frazer asserted that it may be
early for a donors' conference, but that should not preclude
coordination of assistance. The Swedish delegation countered
that a clear commitment to reconciliation from the TFI
leadership would make mobilizing donor support an easier
task. The UN delegation explained that the TFIs could show
their strength by honoring a social contract - providing
necessary services. A/S Frazer asked the UN to circulate its
joint needs assessment to help inform donors' deliberations.
The U.K. delegation reminded the meeting of the urgent needs
of "genuine" refugees.


8. (SBU) At the meeting's conclusion, Tuju called on members
to follow the U.S. lead and make concrete pledges. The Arab
League committed one million dollars, further to their
announcement that a shipment of medicine was already en route
Mogadishu. The UK delegation stated that its government
would be making resources available immediately. Assistant
Secretary Frazer emphasized the urgent need, encouraging more

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pledges. While the UNDP will monitor commitments, she
continued, the issue of a formal donor mechanism should be on
the agenda for the next ICG meeting.

SECURITY
--------------

9. (SBU) Security, however, is a prerequisite for the
creation of a secure and stable environment in which the TFIs
can capitalize on this assistance, the delegates agreed. The
delegates also concurred with A/S Frazer that the need for a
stabilization force is urgent. The meeting called for
further discussion of early deployment of peace keeping
forces, comprised primarily of African states. Despite
suggestions from some delegates that resolution 1725 requires
reformulation to reflect the current situation in Somalia,
most delegates agreed that the mandate of 1725 is still
applicable and should merely be adapted to take account of
the new realities on the ground. Sweden proposed that
Mogadishu should be the first priority for any stabilizing
force, to allow the TFIs to operate effectively from the
capital. The AU delegate stated that an AU meeting was
planned in Addis Ababa for the week of January 8, 2007 to
develop an exit strategy for Ethiopian forces and the early
deployment of a stabilizing force. FM Tuju announced his
plans for a mission to five African countries to seek
additional troop contributions.


10. (SBU) In a bilateral meeting with President Yusuf on the
margins of the ICG meeting, A/S Frazer emphasized that the
key right now is the political process. Appreciating Yusuf's
commitment to inclusivity, she noted the United States' hope
that Prime Minister Gedi reaches out broadly in making
appointments in the spirit of reconciliation. Yusuf stated
that he has advised PM Gedi to be "tolerant," adding that
Gedi would initiate dialogue with all groups - politicians,
religious leaders, and civil society members, but not
terrorists. If warlords behave appropriately, they are
welcome too, Yusuf said, noting that PM Gedi had invited all
warlords to Mogadishu. Left with no other choice at this
time, they have all accepted, he commented. Yusuf appealed
to A/S Frazer for continued U.S. support, thanking her for
the U.S. role thus far.


11. (SBU) Following the conclusion of the ICG meeting,
members of the ICG, including Kenya, Norway, Sweden, the
European Commission, and the U.S., met privately with the

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Speaker of the Transitional Federal Parliament Shariff Hassan
Sheikh Adan. FM Tuju provided Shariff Hassan with a copy of
the ICG communiqu and summarized the decisions of the
meeting. Despite the urging of the ICG members that Shariff
Hassan and a large group of Somali MPs currently in Nairobi
return to Somalia and take part in the political process,
Shariff Hassan categorically refused to return to Baidoa or
Mogadishu while Ethiopian forces remain inside Somalia.
While Shariff Hassan noted his willingness to engage with
President Yusuf and PM Gedi from Nairobi, he argued that his
return to Somalia at this time would require him to adopt the
views of Yusuf and Gedi. Shariff Hassan called for the
immediate implementation of UNSC resolution 1725, including
deployment of a regional stabilization force to replace
Ethiopian forces in Somalia, as the basis for stabilizing
Somalia. FM Tuju chastised Shariff Hassan for imposing these
preconditions and therefore "wasting" the time of the
international community.


12. (SBU) A/S Frazer noted Shariff Hassan's principled stand
against the Ethiopian intervention, but emphasized that
recent events cannot be undone. What is most important now
is that Shariff Hassan return to the political process, reach
out broadly to key elements of Somali society, and get the
TFIs back onto the transitional process for the remaining
three years of its mandate. A/S Frazer said that it seems
more productive for Shariff Hassan to return to Baidoa and be
a leader, rather than allow Ethiopia to prevent him from
participating in the he political process. A/S Frazer note
that Ethiopia hopes to withdraw its forces within the next
couple of weeks, but expressed her concern that the speaker's
absence even for a couple of weeks could permanently exclude
him from the process. (NOTE: President Yusuf told Ambassador
Ranneberger on December 29 that the Transitional Federal
parliament may move to impeach the Speaker on the grounds
that the speaker has been outside of Somalia for over one
month and his negative rhetoric against the TFIs. END NOTE.)
Shariff Hassan responded that the parliament could only
function in an "environment of peace, not under foreign
masters" and that he did not see a role for himself until
1725 was implemented and Ethiopia had withdrawn.


13. (U) Assistant Secretary Frazer has cleared this message.
RANNEBERGER