SOMALIA: JANUARY 5 MEETING OF THE INTERNATIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000103 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC MOPS SO ET KE SUBJECT: SOMALIA: JANUARY 5 MEETING OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONTACT GROUP REF: A. NAIROBI 91 ` B. 06 NAIROBI 5405 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The recent meeting of the International Contact Group (ICG) on Somalia centered on supporting Somalia at this crucial moment, in particular with respect to consolidating stability through an inclusive political process, security, and humanitarian and development assistance. The delegates urged reconciliation and immediate international support for the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs). The ICG agreed that effective TFIs based on broad-based dialogue are the key to a stable, secure, and democratic Somalia, and to that end called for the urgent deployment of a stabilization force in Somalia based on UNSC resolution 1725 and called on donor partners to provide immediate capacity-building assistance. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The ICG met January 5 in Nairobi, co-chaired by Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer and Kenyan Minister for Foreign Affairs Raphael Tuju. Norway, Sweden, the European Union, Italy, Tanzania, the United Kingdom, the African Union, IGAD, the United Nations, and the League of Arab states attended the meeting. Reftel includes the text of the communiqu of the ICG meeting. Tanzania agreed to host the next meeting of the ICG in Dar es Salaam in one month with the precise date to be determined. "A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY" -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In their opening messages, Assistant Secretary Frazer and Foreign Minister Tuju highlighted the need for the current meeting to identify ways to assist Somalia. A/S Frazer outlined three ways in which the ICG could help Somalia move forward: support the government in initiating a truly inclusive process for reconciliation, identify concrete assistance mechanisms, and encourage the immediate deployment of a stabilization force. FM Tuju welcomed Uganda's decision to deploy troops to Somalia on behalf of IGAD and the AU, and called for specific commitments of financial assistance to help build the capacity of the TFIs. Responding to A/S Frazer's well-received announcement of USD 40 million in new assistance to Somalia, Tuju likewise pledged Kenya's continued assistance. ¶4. (SBU) In making an introductory remark to the ICG, Somalia President Abdullahi Yusuf continued the theme of the current situation in Somalia as an opportunity, telling the ICG that his government would employ an inclusive approach to create a "new Somalia" based on broad-based governance, collective security and stability. Yusuf highlighted as a new beginning the TFIs' recent success in removing the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) and taking control of the country. The President stated that the ICG's assistance in deploying troops as provided for in UNSC 1725, supporting government institutions, and providing humanitarian aid would enable the TFIs to meet their goals. DIALOGUE AND RECONCILIATION -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Among the ICG delegates, there was general agreement with A/S Frazer's statement that the TFIs need to pursue a genuine reconciliation process which promotes inclusive dialogue between all elements of Somali society. However, reconciliation, it was agreed, needs to begin first and foremost within the TFIs. The UNPOS delegate stressed the need for the international community to encourage key actors, namely the President and the Prime Minister, to resume dialogue and work together to maintain the legitimacy and credibility of the TFIs. Sweden suggested that convening parliament in Mogadishu is one way to bring the various factions within the TFIs together to promote dialogue. ¶6. (SBU) Delegates also stressed the importance of the resumption of dialogue and reconciliation between the TFIs and other representative groups which are not currently represented in the TFIs among civil society, the business community, women's groups, and religious leaders. The NAIROBI 00000103 002 OF 003 delegate for the Arab League emphasized the need to also include former elements of the CIC, arguing that to exclude them would have negative consequences for the achievement of peace and stability in Somalia. ASSISTANCE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) ICG delegates concluded that support for the TFIs' operational capacity is essential to peace and security in Somalia. Responding to the co-chairs' and Yusuf's appeal for financial support, several ICG members called for a donors' conference. Members' ability to help the TFIs show immediate improvements on the ground would give a boost to Somali confidence in the TFIs. A/S Frazer asserted that it may be early for a donors' conference, but that should not preclude coordination of assistance. The Swedish delegation countered that a clear commitment to reconciliation from the TFI leadership would make mobilizing donor support an easier task. The UN delegation explained that the TFIs could show their strength by honoring a social contract - providing necessary services. A/S Frazer asked the UN to circulate its joint needs assessment to help inform donors' deliberations. The U.K. delegation reminded the meeting of the urgent needs of "genuine" refugees. ¶8. (SBU) At the meeting's conclusion, Tuju called on members to follow the U.S. lead and make concrete pledges. The Arab League committed one million dollars, further to their announcement that a shipment of medicine was already en route Mogadishu. The UK delegation stated that its government would be making resources available immediately. Assistant Secretary Frazer emphasized the urgent need, encouraging more SIPDIS pledges. While the UNDP will monitor commitments, she continued, the issue of a formal donor mechanism should be on the agenda for the next ICG meeting. SECURITY -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Security, however, is a prerequisite for the creation of a secure and stable environment in which the TFIs can capitalize on this assistance, the delegates agreed. The delegates also concurred with A/S Frazer that the need for a stabilization force is urgent. The meeting called for further discussion of early deployment of peace keeping forces, comprised primarily of African states. Despite suggestions from some delegates that resolution 1725 requires reformulation to reflect the current situation in Somalia, most delegates agreed that the mandate of 1725 is still applicable and should merely be adapted to take account of the new realities on the ground. Sweden proposed that Mogadishu should be the first priority for any stabilizing force, to allow the TFIs to operate effectively from the capital. The AU delegate stated that an AU meeting was planned in Addis Ababa for the week of January 8, 2007 to develop an exit strategy for Ethiopian forces and the early deployment of a stabilizing force. FM Tuju announced his plans for a mission to five African countries to seek additional troop contributions. ¶10. (SBU) In a bilateral meeting with President Yusuf on the margins of the ICG meeting, A/S Frazer emphasized that the key right now is the political process. Appreciating Yusuf's commitment to inclusivity, she noted the United States' hope that Prime Minister Gedi reaches out broadly in making appointments in the spirit of reconciliation. Yusuf stated that he has advised PM Gedi to be "tolerant," adding that Gedi would initiate dialogue with all groups - politicians, religious leaders, and civil society members, but not terrorists. If warlords behave appropriately, they are welcome too, Yusuf said, noting that PM Gedi had invited all warlords to Mogadishu. Left with no other choice at this time, they have all accepted, he commented. Yusuf appealed to A/S Frazer for continued U.S. support, thanking her for the U.S. role thus far. ¶11. (SBU) Following the conclusion of the ICG meeting, members of the ICG, including Kenya, Norway, Sweden, the European Commission, and the U.S., met privately with the NAIROBI 00000103 003.2 OF 003 Speaker of the Transitional Federal Parliament Shariff Hassan Sheikh Adan. FM Tuju provided Shariff Hassan with a copy of the ICG communiqu and summarized the decisions of the meeting. Despite the urging of the ICG members that Shariff Hassan and a large group of Somali MPs currently in Nairobi return to Somalia and take part in the political process, Shariff Hassan categorically refused to return to Baidoa or Mogadishu while Ethiopian forces remain inside Somalia. While Shariff Hassan noted his willingness to engage with President Yusuf and PM Gedi from Nairobi, he argued that his return to Somalia at this time would require him to adopt the views of Yusuf and Gedi. Shariff Hassan called for the immediate implementation of UNSC resolution 1725, including deployment of a regional stabilization force to replace Ethiopian forces in Somalia, as the basis for stabilizing Somalia. FM Tuju chastised Shariff Hassan for imposing these preconditions and therefore "wasting" the time of the international community. ¶12. (SBU) A/S Frazer noted Shariff Hassan's principled stand against the Ethiopian intervention, but emphasized that recent events cannot be undone. What is most important now is that Shariff Hassan return to the political process, reach out broadly to key elements of Somali society, and get the TFIs back onto the transitional process for the remaining three years of its mandate. A/S Frazer said that it seems more productive for Shariff Hassan to return to Baidoa and be a leader, rather than allow Ethiopia to prevent him from participating in the he political process. A/S Frazer note that Ethiopia hopes to withdraw its forces within the next couple of weeks, but expressed her concern that the speaker's absence even for a couple of weeks could permanently exclude him from the process. (NOTE: President Yusuf told Ambassador Ranneberger on December 29 that the Transitional Federal parliament may move to impeach the Speaker on the grounds that the speaker has been outside of Somalia for over one month and his negative rhetoric against the TFIs. END NOTE.) Shariff Hassan responded that the parliament could only function in an "environment of peace, not under foreign masters" and that he did not see a role for himself until 1725 was implemented and Ethiopia had withdrawn. ¶13. (U) Assistant Secretary Frazer has cleared this message. RANNEBERGER