C-NE7-00774: FINAL ELECTION PUSH IN OMAN AS VOTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 000979 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 TAGS: PINR PGOV KDEM KMPI KPAO KWMN MU SUBJECT: C-NE7-00774: FINAL ELECTION PUSH IN OMAN AS VOTING CONDUCTED ABROAD REF: A. MUSCAT 931 ¶B. MUSCAT 742 ¶C. MUSCAT 181 ¶D. 06 MUSCAT 1468 Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Omanis in 10 countries outside Oman voted without incident on October 20 for their representatives in the Majlis al-Shura. The government continues to assert that all will be ready for national elections inside Oman on October 27 and that various safeguards (e.g. secure voting forms and an electronic database) will be used to prevent fraud and irregularities. The Ministry of Information will open a media center for election day coverage for the "Arab and foreign press," although the identify and number of international media outlets that will be reporting are unclear. Candidates have plastered posters, banners and even billboards over Oman to help sway voters, while the government is running regular announcements on radio and state TV encouraging registered voters, including women, to turn out at the polls. These ads have apparently had some success in energizing voters, particularly among younger adults, but apathy towards the elections remains widespread. Press coverage of the electoral process, with a very few exceptions, has been routinely positive and post expects that local election day reporting will fall along predictable lines. End Summary. -------------- EXPATRIATE OMANIS CAST THEIR VOTES -------------- ¶2. (U) Voting for members of Oman's Majlis al-Shura (the lower house of the Sultanate's bicameral advisory body) took place on October 20 -- one week in advance of the October 27 elections within Oman -- at 11 designated Omani diplomatic missions abroad (ref A). According to government statements in the local press, voter turnout was "high," though no numbers were provided. The on-line version of the UAE daily "Al Khaleej" quoted the Omani Charge d'Affaires in the UAE capital as stating that over 1500 Omanis voted in Abu Dhabi while another 2000 cast votes at the Omani trade mission in Dubai. Oman's ambassador in Amman told Jordan's al-Dustour newspaper that he had sent buses to several locations to help bring Omanis resident in Jordan (estimated at roughly 3,000) to the embassy to vote. The Omani press on October 23 carried a statement by a Ministry of Interior spokesperson that the sealed boxes containing the expatriate votes had already arrived in Muscat. -------------- GOVERNMENT MAKES FINAL PREPARATIONS -------------- ¶3. (U) Back in Oman, the government has repeatedly assured citizens that all election preparations and safeguards will be completed in time for a smooth vote on October 27. During his October 2 meeting with the Omani Journalists Association (ref A),for example, Minister of Interior Sayyid Saud bin Ibrahim al-Busaidi stated that the elections would be "highly transparent" and closely supervised so as to foreclose any possibility of fraud. He explained that voting forms were printed on highly secure paper similar to that used in bank notes and that the election will be monitored electronically using a new digital database and "real-time display screens." On October 23, the Central Elections Commission announced that vote counting would be monitored via closed circuit television, and that the counting would commence immediately after the closing of the polls. ¶4. (U) According to local dailies, Ministry of Information Under Secretary Sheikh Abdullah bin Shuwai al-Husani -- who also serves as the chairman of the national elections media committee -- met with representatives of the "Arab and foreign press" on October 7 regarding coverage of the Majlis al-Shura elections. He confirmed that the government would open a "well-equipped" media center at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Muscat on election day to help journalists, including those from CNN and BBC, to report on the vote. Al-Husani further encouraged the press representatives to use "objectivity and transparency" and to "avoid exaggerations" in their reports. -------------- CAMPAIGNING INTENSIFIES MUSCAT 00000979 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Taking advantage of new regulations permitting public campaign advertisements, banners and placards -- and even a few billboards -- are prominently displayed throughout metropolitan Muscat and other parts of the country in support of Majlis candidates. The content of such displays, however, is effectively restricted to the identity, background and experience of the candidates. The number of newspaper ads placed by candidates has steadily increased over the past week. The October 23 edition of leading Arabic daily "Oman," for example, carried eight such advertisements, mostly for candidates running in the southern city of Salalah. Campaign rallies and open invitation gatherings with candidates are still off limits, but many candidates are nevertheless trying to maximize their exposure by getting out in public to shop, eat, and attend social events while their supporters talk them up by word of mouth. -------------- ELECTION MEDIA BLITZ -------------- ¶6. (U) The government, for its part, is conducting a full court media press to urge registered voters to turn out at the polls. Virtually all Omani radio stations, as well as state-owned television, are regularly running ads emphasizing the importance of voting for the Majlis al-Shura. Several ads specifically emphasize the need for women to participate in the elections. ¶7. (C) The government media campaign is apparently capturing the attention of at least some of the public, particularly younger adults. Dr. Ubaid al-Shaqsi, professor of political science at Sultan Qaboos University, told Pol-Econ Chief that many students in his classes -- prompted in part by the government announcements -- were actively discussing the upcoming elections and the role of the Majlis in Oman. While some students expressed apathy and/or cynicism towards the Majlis prevalent in broader Omani society (refs B-D), al-Shaqsi said that a solid majority favored participation in the election process. He added, however, that older Omanis who had seen several previous elections were more likely to sit on the sidelines. -------------- PREDICTABLE PRESS COVERAGE -------------- ¶8. (C) Reports in the local press regarding the elections have been unsurprisingly positive and it is clear that domestic coverage of the vote will fall along predictable lines. For a sensitive event such as the Majlis elections, post expects nearly identical stories based on officially issued templates. Local dailies will report prominently and positively on the election, drawing on anodyne comments from voters (male, female, young, and old) and noting the great strides in Oman's development. International reporting may be more interesting, but post contacts have been vague about which outlets may be coming to cover the vote. (Note: Muscat has no resident international correspondents, and even the few stringers in town are also employees of state media. End Note.) ¶9. (C) Bucking the scenario presented above, there have been a few local press articles that have taken a more critical tone towards the elections and/or the Majlis, although even these were almost assuredly cleared through official channels. An October editorial in government-owned Arabic daily "Oman" stated that one reason for "a lack of enthusiasm" for the Majlis al-Shura elections was "opportunist candidates" who attempted to buy votes with "money, luncheons and dinners." An editorial in Arabic independent daily "Azzaman" by a Sultan Qaboos University professor (and brother of an advisor to the Sultan) called for a quicker pace in "promoting a sound parliamentary culture." To help achieve this, the writer advocated the direct election of the Chairman of the Majlis by its members (rather than his appointment by the Sultan) and encouraged journalists to actively cover political issues and deliberations in the Majlis. ¶10. (C) A talk show broadcast October 22 on Oman TV featuring a discussion on the role and effectiveness of the Majlis struck closer to home with the hosts defending the institution (though recognizing that it needed to be further "vitalized") from the charges of some critics. In the end, the public's perception of the Majlis as a political entity without impact on their lives and the public's more general state of apathy on political matters will likely mean a MUSCAT 00000979 003 OF 003 turnout of registered voters only slightly better than that of 2003. GRAPPO