C-NE7-00774: FINAL ELECTION PUSH IN OMAN AS VOTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 000979

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017
TAGS: PINR PGOV KDEM KMPI KPAO KWMN MU
SUBJECT: C-NE7-00774: FINAL ELECTION PUSH IN OMAN AS VOTING
CONDUCTED ABROAD

REF: A. MUSCAT 931


B. MUSCAT 742

C. MUSCAT 181

D. 06 MUSCAT 1468

Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Omanis in 10 countries outside Oman voted without
incident on October 20 for their representatives in the
Majlis al-Shura. The government continues to assert that all
will be ready for national elections inside Oman on October
27 and that various safeguards (e.g. secure voting forms and
an electronic database) will be used to prevent fraud and
irregularities. The Ministry of Information will open a
media center for election day coverage for the "Arab and
foreign press," although the identify and number of
international media outlets that will be reporting are
unclear. Candidates have plastered posters, banners and even
billboards over Oman to help sway voters, while the
government is running regular announcements on radio and
state TV encouraging registered voters, including women, to
turn out at the polls. These ads have apparently had some
success in energizing voters, particularly among younger
adults, but apathy towards the elections remains widespread.
Press coverage of the electoral process, with a very few
exceptions, has been routinely positive and post expects that
local election day reporting will fall along predictable
lines. End Summary.

--------------
EXPATRIATE OMANIS CAST THEIR VOTES
--------------


2. (U) Voting for members of Oman's Majlis al-Shura (the
lower house of the Sultanate's bicameral advisory body) took
place on October 20 -- one week in advance of the October 27
elections within Oman -- at 11 designated Omani diplomatic
missions abroad (ref A). According to government statements
in the local press, voter turnout was "high," though no
numbers were provided. The on-line version of the UAE daily
"Al Khaleej" quoted the Omani Charge d'Affaires in the UAE
capital as stating that over 1500 Omanis voted in Abu Dhabi
while another 2000 cast votes at the Omani trade mission in
Dubai. Oman's ambassador in Amman told Jordan's al-Dustour
newspaper that he had sent buses to several locations to help
bring Omanis resident in Jordan (estimated at roughly 3,000)
to the embassy to vote. The Omani press on October 23
carried a statement by a Ministry of Interior spokesperson
that the sealed boxes containing the expatriate votes had
already arrived in Muscat.

--------------
GOVERNMENT MAKES FINAL PREPARATIONS
--------------


3. (U) Back in Oman, the government has repeatedly assured
citizens that all election preparations and safeguards will
be completed in time for a smooth vote on October 27. During
his October 2 meeting with the Omani Journalists Association
(ref A),for example, Minister of Interior Sayyid Saud bin
Ibrahim al-Busaidi stated that the elections would be "highly
transparent" and closely supervised so as to foreclose any
possibility of fraud. He explained that voting forms were
printed on highly secure paper similar to that used in bank
notes and that the election will be monitored electronically
using a new digital database and "real-time display screens."
On October 23, the Central Elections Commission announced
that vote counting would be monitored via closed circuit
television, and that the counting would commence immediately
after the closing of the polls.


4. (U) According to local dailies, Ministry of Information
Under Secretary Sheikh Abdullah bin Shuwai al-Husani -- who
also serves as the chairman of the national elections media
committee -- met with representatives of the "Arab and
foreign press" on October 7 regarding coverage of the Majlis
al-Shura elections. He confirmed that the government would
open a "well-equipped" media center at the Grand Hyatt hotel
in Muscat on election day to help journalists, including
those from CNN and BBC, to report on the vote. Al-Husani
further encouraged the press representatives to use
"objectivity and transparency" and to "avoid exaggerations"
in their reports.

--------------
CAMPAIGNING INTENSIFIES

MUSCAT 00000979 002 OF 003


--------------


5. (SBU) Taking advantage of new regulations permitting
public campaign advertisements, banners and placards -- and
even a few billboards -- are prominently displayed throughout
metropolitan Muscat and other parts of the country in support
of Majlis candidates. The content of such displays, however,
is effectively restricted to the identity, background and
experience of the candidates. The number of newspaper ads
placed by candidates has steadily increased over the past
week. The October 23 edition of leading Arabic daily "Oman,"
for example, carried eight such advertisements, mostly for
candidates running in the southern city of Salalah. Campaign
rallies and open invitation gatherings with candidates are
still off limits, but many candidates are nevertheless trying
to maximize their exposure by getting out in public to shop,
eat, and attend social events while their supporters talk
them up by word of mouth.

--------------
ELECTION MEDIA BLITZ
--------------


6. (U) The government, for its part, is conducting a full
court media press to urge registered voters to turn out at
the polls. Virtually all Omani radio stations, as well as
state-owned television, are regularly running ads emphasizing
the importance of voting for the Majlis al-Shura. Several
ads specifically emphasize the need for women to participate
in the elections.


7. (C) The government media campaign is apparently capturing
the attention of at least some of the public, particularly
younger adults. Dr. Ubaid al-Shaqsi, professor of political
science at Sultan Qaboos University, told Pol-Econ Chief that
many students in his classes -- prompted in part by the
government announcements -- were actively discussing the
upcoming elections and the role of the Majlis in Oman. While
some students expressed apathy and/or cynicism towards the
Majlis prevalent in broader Omani society (refs B-D),
al-Shaqsi said that a solid majority favored participation in
the election process. He added, however, that older Omanis
who had seen several previous elections were more likely to
sit on the sidelines.

--------------
PREDICTABLE PRESS COVERAGE
--------------


8. (C) Reports in the local press regarding the elections
have been unsurprisingly positive and it is clear that
domestic coverage of the vote will fall along predictable
lines. For a sensitive event such as the Majlis elections,
post expects nearly identical stories based on officially
issued templates. Local dailies will report prominently and
positively on the election, drawing on anodyne comments from
voters (male, female, young, and old) and noting the great
strides in Oman's development. International reporting may
be more interesting, but post contacts have been vague about
which outlets may be coming to cover the vote. (Note:
Muscat has no resident international correspondents, and even
the few stringers in town are also employees of state media.
End Note.)


9. (C) Bucking the scenario presented above, there have been
a few local press articles that have taken a more critical
tone towards the elections and/or the Majlis, although even
these were almost assuredly cleared through official
channels. An October editorial in government-owned Arabic
daily "Oman" stated that one reason for "a lack of
enthusiasm" for the Majlis al-Shura elections was
"opportunist candidates" who attempted to buy votes with
"money, luncheons and dinners." An editorial in Arabic
independent daily "Azzaman" by a Sultan Qaboos University
professor (and brother of an advisor to the Sultan) called
for a quicker pace in "promoting a sound parliamentary
culture." To help achieve this, the writer advocated the
direct election of the Chairman of the Majlis by its members
(rather than his appointment by the Sultan) and encouraged
journalists to actively cover political issues and
deliberations in the Majlis.


10. (C) A talk show broadcast October 22 on Oman TV
featuring a discussion on the role and effectiveness of the
Majlis struck closer to home with the hosts defending the
institution (though recognizing that it needed to be further
"vitalized") from the charges of some critics. In the end,
the public's perception of the Majlis as a political entity
without impact on their lives and the public's more general
state of apathy on political matters will likely mean a

MUSCAT 00000979 003 OF 003


turnout of registered voters only slightly better than that
of 2003.
GRAPPO