C-NE7-01141: OMAN MOVES FORWARD ON POST-CYCLONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 000638 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2017 TAGS: AMER AMGT ASEC CASC KSAC KHLS MOPS PINR MU SUBJECT: C-NE7-01141: OMAN MOVES FORWARD ON POST-CYCLONE RECOVERY EFFORTS REF: A. STATE 84648 ¶B. MUSCAT 596 ¶C. MUSCAT 590 ¶D. MUSCAT 587 Classified By: CDA Alfred F. Fonteneau for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The government of Oman is working diligently to restore roads and public services impacted by tropical cyclone Gonu. Notable progress has been achieved, but thousands of individuals in the Muscat area alone remain displaced and the cost of infrastructure damage is currently estimated at over USD 2.5 billion. Most Omanis appear relatively satisfied with the government's storm recovery efforts; non-religious charities have supplemented governmental assistance. The Sultan's continued absence from the public eye has prompted much private talk, but has so far not seriously eroded his popularity. End Summary. -------------- RESTORING ROADS AND SERVICES -------------- ¶2. (U) The Omani government continues to make progress in recovering from the devastation caused by tropical cyclone Gonu. Emergency repair work has at least partially re-opened 15 damaged roads in greater Muscat, although three traffic arteries (one in the Seeb district and two in the hard hit Bausher/Ghubrah area) remain closed. Transportation links to badly affected towns on the outskirts of the capital (ref C) are also being restored, which has increased the delivery of needed supplies to storm victims. According to the government, electricity and water service is now available to a large majority of Muscat area residents. Officials specifically claim that 95% of the city's power grid is functional, and that 57 million gallons of water is being supplied daily to Muscat. More than 1,800 trucks have been assigned to pump out standing water from the capital's neighborhoods to reduce the risk of disease. Fresh milk, bread and some other basic consumer items that were in short supply are once again fully stocked on store shelves. ¶3. (SBU) Considerable repair and clean-up work remains, however. Despite the government's efforts, some badly flooded neighborhoods in and around Muscat still do not have power or water. Officials reported that as of June 18, 3,150 individuals in the greater capital region remained in government-provided shelters (mostly schools): 450 in the Bausher/Ghubrah district, 400 in the Muttrah/Yeti area, and 2,300 in the outlying town of Qurayat. (Note: Many persons who were forced to leave their homes are staying with friends and relatives, rather than in shelters. End Note.) Municipal trash pick-up service has resumed, but piles of garbage are still noticeable even in well-heeled neighborhoods, and hospitals continue to report cases of intestinal-related illnesses amidst fears of contamination in the water system. Hard-hit areas well outside the capital, such as the city of Sur (ref C),lag behind Muscat in the pace of recovery from the storm, but there are no reports of large-scale deprivation, and contacts report that all basic needs of residents of these areas are being met. -------------- A HEFTY DAMAGE BILL -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Ministry of National Economy has estimated damage to infrastructure alone at approximately 1 billion Omani rials (USD 2.6 billion). Plans to construct three new dams in the Wadi Adai to prevent future flooding will require 24.15 million rials (USD 62.8 million). During a June 18 meeting with Minister of Commerce and Industry Maqbool bin Ali Sultan, insurance company representatives stated that claims related to Gonu could approach or even exceed USD 750 million. The official death toll from the cyclone has not changed for a week and remains at 49 (including 13 Omani national),with 27 reported as missing. Contacts who predicted higher casualties (ref C) speculate that the authorities may be waiting to issue a final number once they have confirmed all deaths, rather than incrementally raise the figure as search operations continue. MUSCAT 00000638 002 OF 003 -------------- PRIVATE RELIEF EFFORTS -------------- ¶5. (U) Apart from government-directed recovery efforts, many Omanis have contributed to post-Gonu relief through volunteerism or donations. Numerous volunteer clean-up operations have been conducted throughout the Muscat area with strong participation by Omani nationals and expatriates. On June 14, for example, roughly 2,000 individuals (including some Embassy staff) assembled near the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and braved high temperatures to remove trash and debris from the popular Qurum beach. According to the Secretary General of the Ministry of National Economy, SIPDIS donations to the cyclone relief fund established by a directive from the Sultan (ref B) had reached 14 million Omani rials (USD 36.4 million) as of June 17. ¶6. (C) While the Omani government has directly provided the bulk of post-Gonu emergency aid, the government-affiliated Oman Charitable Organization and, to a lesser extent, the private Dar al-Attaa charity have also collected and distributed food, water and other supplies to those affected by the cyclone. Expatriate organizations, sometimes in conjunction with their resident embassies, have likewise organized campaigns to help nationals of their countries who suffered heavy losses from the storm. None of these relief efforts have a political tone or anti-government bent. Some Omanis have reportedly brought material donations to their local mosques, but imams (who are all employed by the government) are not/not attempting to play an active role in providing assistance to cyclone victims. (Note: There are no private Islamic organizations (including charities) outside the purview of the Ministry of Awqaf and Religious Affairs. End Note.) -------------- GOVERNMENT IMAGE INTACT -------------- ¶7. (C) Although accurately gauging public opinion in Oman can be difficult, discussions with contacts and a check of Internet chatroom activity indicate that most Omanis are relatively satisfied with government relief efforts and the initial pace of reconstruction. Even U.S. citizens in the hard hit city of Sur expressed approval of the strong response of the Omani military to reach victims with aid and supplies (ref C). The local press, predictably, has mostly lauded governmental storm recovery actions and has repeatedly praised the Omani people for their "solidarity" and generosity in helping the country bounce back from the cyclone. ¶8. (C) Of course, not everyone is happy with the role of the government both during and after Gonu. Some Omani nationals who suffered heavy losses and their relatives are, understandably, very upset and have privately criticized governmental shortcomings. A June 19 article in Arabic daily "Shabiba" called for the Majlis al-Shura (the directly-elected lower house of Oman's bicameral advisory body) to hold accountable governmental authorities who "failed to carry out their responsibilities" as demonstrated in the aftermath of Gonu. The article specifically mentioned the Ministry of Housing and Electricity for the "failure" of its long-term planning, and alleged that the urban planning of the Muscat Municipality was "just decor." -------------- WHERE IS HE? -------------- ¶9. (C) The issue that continues to perplex many Omanis and foreign observers is the Sultan's almost complete absence from the public eye since the storm hit (refs C, D). Apart from press and television news coverage of the Sultan chairing the June 11 cabinet meeting (ref B),there have been no public statements from, or photos or articles on the activities of, Oman's ruler in local media. The entire royal family, in fact, has similarly kept a very low profile following the storm. Contacts report sightings of the Sultan surveying damage in the town of Qurayat and elsewhere, but these have not been confirmed publicly. Tongues have been wagging (albeit in private) around Muscat regarding the Sultan's apparent seclusion, but there is no consensus as to the possible reason. MUSCAT 00000638 003 OF 003 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Despite some missteps, there has been no widespread frustration or discontent among Omani nationals regarding the government's response to the cyclone. Limited criticism of the government, moreover, has been offset by a renewed sense of nationalism as many Omanis rally around the flag in "rebuilding" their country. The Sultan's invisibility has led to much speculation, but has so far not seriously eroded his broad popularity. End Comment. FONTENEAU