ARROGANCE, IGNORANCE CLOUDING IRANIAN JUDGEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 000060 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2017 TAGS: PREL IR MU SUBJECT: ARROGANCE, IGNORANCE CLOUDING IRANIAN JUDGEMENT SAYS FORMER OMANI AIR FORCE COMMANDER Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo per 1.5 (B and D). ¶1. (C) Arrogance and overconfidence are clouding the judgment of the Iranian leadership, according to Mohammed bin Mafoudh al-Ardhi, former commander of the Royal Air Force of Oman (RAFO). The retired Air Vice Marshall told the Ambassador January 16 that on a recent visit to Iran, he had met with a close advisor (NFI) of Supreme Council for National Security Secretary Ali Larijani. Al-Ardhi said he was struck by the Iranian's overweening attitude, compounded by ignorance of Iran's standing in the region and the broader international community, and by overconfidence in its ability to meet a U.S. military challenge. ¶2. (C) Al-Ardhi's Iranian interlocutor told him that Iran's standing in the international community is on the rise and its position on acquiring nuclear technology enjoys wide international support. The U.S., meanwhile, is increasingly isolated and out of favor even among its closest European allies, according to the Iranian. Moreover, the Iranian had argued that the U.S. was not in a position to militarily challenge Iran because U.S. forces were "too bogged down in Iraq." The Omani reportedly argued that the Iranians were gravely misreading their standing in the international community, especially in the wake of the most recent UN Security Council resolution. He also cautioned the Iranian against underestimating America's military capability. Al-Ardhi, a NDU distinguished graduate, said he warned the Iranian it would be "foolish in the extreme" to underestimate the damage U.S. forces could inflict on Iran "even without resorting to nuclear weapons and without placing one infantry soldier on Iranian soil." ¶3. (C) The Iranian allegedly accused the Omani of old thinking and continued to argue that Iran had the upper hand politically and militarily. Al-Ardhi concluded that his interlocutor either was a diehard ideologue or was receiving faulty intelligence, and wondered whether the Iranian's boss, Larijani, and others in the Iranian leadership might also be receiving similarly inaccurate assessments and information. He told the Ambassador that such miscalculation, if more widespread among the Iranian leadership, was "extremely dangerous" and presented yet another challenge to the U.S. within the larger Iranian problem. ¶4. (C) On a separate question, al-Ardhi said the decision at the December GCC summit in Riyadh to seek nuclear technology was driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and was intended as a signal to Iran that it should not expect Gulf nations to sit idly as Iran pursued nuclear capabilities. Al-Ardhi, who travels frequently throughout the region and maintains extensive contacts as a result of his 11 years as the RAFO commander, reported that senior officials (NFI) in the UAE had expressed particular concern to him about Iran's nuclear ambitions and appeared eager to find ways to meet the Iranian challenge. ¶5. (C) Comment: The reason for al-Ardhi's unexpected retirement from RAFO remains a mystery. He had risen quickly within the RAFO ranks and was the youngest (DOB 1960) Omani in history to command one of the Omani armed forces. As RAFO commander, he was Oman's principal interlocutor with the U.S. on military/security affairs and was an ardent supporter of Oman's F-16 purchase. He often had been rumored to be headed for more senior positions in the government, including that of the current de facto number two in Oman, Minister of the Royal Office and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces General Ali bin Majid al-Ma'amari. However, an alleged falling-out with the senior leadership, including perhaps with the Sultan, delayed, if not derailed, such ambitions. He retired in 2003, although his length of service as RAFO commander was standard for a military service chief. ¶6. (C) Comment (continued): Al-Ardhi currently busies himself with the family business, mostly overseeing real estate investments inside and outside Oman, and travels extensively, including to Pakistan, India, China, the U.S., UK, France and throughout the region. A fluent English speaker, he is often invited to speak at or participate in international security conferences and symposia. Rumors persist in various Omani circles that he is being "rehabilitated" and will return to government service at "the appropriate time." However, he told the Ambassador that while he would enjoy a return to government service in "a meaningful policy position," he has no immediate plans to do so. MUSCAT 00000060 002 OF 002 GRAPPO