OMAN FACES CHALLENGES IN PROMOTING ELECTIONS AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 000181 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KMPI MU SUBJECT: OMAN FACES CHALLENGES IN PROMOTING ELECTIONS AS CANDIDATES REGISTER FOR UPCOMING POLLS REF: A. 06 MUSCAT 01738 ¶B. 06 MUSCAT 01630 ¶C. 06 MUSCAT 01468 MUSCAT 00000181 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Registration for candidates for elections to the Majlis al-Shura began February 10 and concluded February 21. In keeping with the government's efforts to promote the elections, the registration process is more user-friendly than previously, although tribalism will continue to heavily influence the number and names of candidates who register. Stiff limits on campaign activities remain in force. Public apathy toward the Majlis Oman, generated by a perception that the consultative body is ineffectual, will be an obstacle to the government's goal of increasing participation in the elections. End Summary. REGISTRATION BEGINS FOR ELECTORAL CANDIDATES -------------- ¶2. (U) The Omani government began accepting registrations on February 10 for Omanis wishing to run in the 2007 elections for the sixth term of the Majlis al-Shura, the lower house of Oman's bicameral consultative body (the Majlis Oman or "Majlis"). Candidates for the Majlis al-Shura elections had until February 21 to submit their registration applications to the government office for their district ("wilaya"). Districts with populations of more than 30,000 can elect two candidates to the Majlis al-Shura, while districts with less than 30,000 residents are entitled to one representative. While there is not yet a fixed date for the elections, voting is widely expected to take place in October. ¶3. (SBU) The forms for candidate registration were available in relevant government offices or, for the first time, on-line via computer. In addition to being more accessible, contacts state that the forms are less cumbersome and easier to complete than those used for the last Majlis al-Shura elections in 2003. The Ministry of Interior, which has primary responsibility for administering elections, announced the registration dates and requirements in several prominent newspapers. Additionally, thousands of Omani cell phone subscribers received text messages publicizing the candidate registration period. CAMPAIGNING "OMANI STYLE" -------------- ¶4. (C) While the Omani government seems intent on promoting the elections, including encouraging a high voter turn-out (ref C),candidates for the Majlis al-Shura continue to face stiff restrictions on campaign activities. In January, the Minister of Interior amended several provisions of the Majlis al-Shura Elections Regulations. These amendments now allow candidates to post campaign posters on designated bulletin boards and to meet with voters in designated locations after receiving electoral committee approval. Otherwise, as was the case for the 2003 elections, candidates are forbidden from campaigning in both public and private areas or buildings. (Note: There is no clear definition of what constitutes "campaigning." Candidates often promote themselves at weddings, tribal gatherings, and other such events. Interestingly, the amendments appear to permit candidates to use the internet to conduct campaigns. End Note.) The amendments were further noteworthy in that they authorize retired or non-active members of the military and security services, previously disenfranchised, to vote in the elections. BE TRUE TO YOUR TRIBE -------------- ¶5. (C) Although there are very few restrictions on who can run for a seat in the Majlis al-Shura, in practice tribalism plays a major factor in determining who becomes a candidate. To maximize the chances of getting members of their tribe elected, leaders within some, if not most, tribes (or extended families) often get together to try to reach consensus on who from the tribe will run in the elections. Too many candidates will usually dilute the votes of members of the tribe, who, in keeping with tradition, are strongly encouraged to cast their ballots along tribal lines. Therefore, Omanis who want to seek a seat in the Majlis al-Shura, but are not sanctioned by the leadership of their tribe or family clan, may face pressure to refrain from registering as a candidate or to withdraw from the electoral race. (Note: A few "independent" candidates in the 2003 elections who bucked the wishes of tribal leaders did get elected to the Majlis al-Shura. End Note.) ¶6. (C) The prominent role of tribalism in elections is MUSCAT 00000181 002.2 OF 002 widely understood in Oman, but not often discussed in public fora. The reluctance to take on this topic, however, may slowly be eroding. A February 14 editorial in Arabic-language daily "Al Shabiba," for example, called on Omani tribes to "do away with prejudice when discussing nominating their candidates for the Majlis al-Shura." The writer, Dr. Anwar al-Rawas, encouraged tribal leaders to "use sound criteria based on competence and not tribalism." OVERCOMING APATHY -------------- ¶7. (C) As reflected by official attempts to raise awareness among potential candidates, as well as voters (ref C),about the upcoming elections, the Omani government hopes to see a marked up-tick in participation in this year's elections. Adding thousands of former military and security service members to the voter rolls will likely further this cause. A major obstacle in the way of this goal, however, is widespread apathy among voters towards the Majlis. According to contacts, many Omanis see both houses of the Majlis as almost irrelevant to their lives and thus see little reason to run in elections or even cast a ballot. Reinforcing this perception, a current member of the Majlis al-Shura declared publicly in December 2006 that the institution "has been useless for 25 years." ¶8. (C) Comment: While some criticism of the Majlis for being ineffective is likely warranted, its reputation is not helped by the government's policy of keeping many of the debates in, and recommendations issued by, the Majlis out of the public realm. For example, Sultan Qaboos and senior officials tell us that many if not most of the changes to draft legislation recommended by the Majlis are adopted by the government before becoming law. Yet, the Omani public is unaware of this since the Majlis is generally not permitted to release marked-up versions of the legislation it reviews. ¶9. (C) Comment (continued): Some Omani activists claim that public interest in the Majlis would sharply increase if the body were given substantially more real authority. This, however, is not likely to happen in the immediate future. During the 25th anniversary celebration of the Oman Consultative Council (ref B),remarks by various speakers reaffirmed Oman's "slow and steady" approach to developing institution-based government. Senior officials have likewise told us that Oman intends to take only gradual steps in its democratic reform process in order to adequately prepare the public for more political freedoms and to avoid the instability in other countries in the region that they believe has been fueled by too rapid reform (ref A). End Comment. GRAPPO