THE ROYAL GUESSING GAME: THE NEXT GENERATION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 001126

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/PPD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2017
TAGS: PINR PREL MU
SUBJECT: THE ROYAL GUESSING GAME: THE NEXT GENERATION

Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (S) SUMMARY: The question of the royal succession is an
exquisitely sensitive one in Oman. When the topic arises as
to who might follow Sultan Qaboos, a common reaction is a
conversation-ending "may he live forever." The Sultanate has
historically lacked a crown prince system like many of its
neighbors, and succession as an issue is commonly avoided not
least because of its potential to recall the forcible start
of the current reign 37 years ago. That said, some
speculation is inevitable and in recent years has expanded
from examining the possibilities of immediate members of the
Al-Said family of the current Sultan's generation to include
their sons. Recent Embassy contact with Sayyid Taimur bin
Asad bin Tariq, a young prince whose profile is especially
high, seems an opportune time to provide background and
context regarding someone increasingly seen by many as a
front-runner among the second generation of royals who could
potentially assume the Al-Said throne. End Summary.

--------------
STARTING AT THE TOP AND MARRYING UP
--------------


2. (S) Sayyid Taimur bin Asad bin Tariq al-Said (born c.
1980) is a second cousin of Sultan Qaboos. Sayyid Taimur is
considered by many Omanis to be the leading candidate in his
generation for the succession, particularly if that
transition takes place after his father and uncles (the "bin
Tariqs," long seen as leading contenders) have passed the age
when they would be considered viable successors. His father,
Sayyid Asad, carries out official public duties as
Representative of His Majesty; his uncles include Sayyid
Haitham (Minister of Heritage and Culture) and Sayyid Shihab
(Adviser to the Sultan and former commander of the navy).
Together, the three are the most prominent of the six "bin
Tariq" brothers; they range in age from 54 to 51.


3. (S) Sayyid Taimur is married to Salma bint Mustahail bin
Ahmed al-Mashani. Her father is the brother and senior
surviving male relative of the Sultan,s revered late mother,
Shaikha Mazoon. Their 2004 marriage was among the
highest-profile royal events in recent years. Its lavishness
led to its being referred to by Muscatis with good-natured
sarcasm as "Alf Laila wa Laila" ("The 1001 Nights"). The
festivities, which were largely funded by and some of which
were attended by the Sultan, included fireworks displays and
four days of parties and receptions. It is widely believed
that the match was made personally by the Sultan and that it
has markedly strengthened Sayyid Taimur,s position within
his generation of the family.

--------------
IT'S GOOD TO BE PRINCE
--------------


4. (S) Sayyid Taimur is associated with (but holds no
official title at) the Oman Research Council, handling
international conferences and presiding at public events.
Observed in action at a spring 2007 mathematics conference,
he was well-spoken and at ease with the academic lecturers
(including Americans) present. His other professional
associations include serving on the Board of Directors of
Bank Dhofar, one of the largest financial institutions in the
country. He presides at occasional official events that call
for the presence of a royal, but not a senior-most one. As
such, he is significantly more familiar to Omanis via the
media than most of his generation.


5. (S) In person, Sayyid Taimur is personable, affable, and
informal. Something over six feet tall, he is markedly
overweight but apparently vigorous. His English, while
strongly accented for an elite young Omani (many of whom
speak with virtually no trace of Arabic accent),is fluent.
He is a fixture of Muscat,s limited nightlife, including
both private parties and bars and nightclubs. He drives
himself in a late-model BMW whose license plate is "1 HH".
He has made only two brief trips to the U.S., one as a child
to Houston for unspecified medical reasons and one in recent
years to Washington DC only.

--------------
EDUCATION: TIME TO KNUCKLE DOWN
--------------


6. (S) A graduate of Muscat International School (rather
than the more elite - but more academically challenging -
Sultan's School),Sayyid Taimur spent four years in higher
education in the United Kingdom. He studied in Brighton and
in Galashiels in the Scottish lowlands before finishing his
undergraduate studies at the (unaccredited) American College

MUSCAT 00001126 002 OF 002


of London. He was, by his own admission, not a diligent
student. In conversation, he notes having failed several
courses and, as a result, having taken his degree in public
relations rather than international affairs.


7. (S) As of 2007, he is increasingly sensitive about the
shortcomings of his undergraduate experience, stating
frankly, for example, to an EmbOff that his association with
the Oman Research Council comes by royal decree rather than
by personal qualification. As a result, in December 2007 he
approached the Embassy for information regarding graduate
study in the U.S. He hopes to pursue a master's degree, with
a concentration in leadership, management, and organizational
skills. He is apparently sincere in wanting to make up for
the perceived inadequacy of his academic qualifications for
his position (current and future).


8. (S) Sayyid Taimur hopes that his wife will join him in
the U.S. and study toward an MBA. She is a graduate of
Sultan Qaboos University and is considered extremely bright
by post contacts who were secondary-school colleagues. She
attended high school at the Shatti Government Girls School, a
family decision seen by her peers as a move to broaden her
horizon beyond earlier private and boarding schools.


9. (S) Comment: Sayyid Taimur is not infrequently mentioned
as a possible successor to Sultan Qaboos, who is 67, in the
event that he rules for much longer and the family looks to
skip the likely candidates among the current generation. The
unusual involvement of the Sultan in Taimur's marriage
suggests not only the Sultan's tacit blessing of the young
prince, but also more indirectly of the prince's father,
Sayyid Asad. Regardless of the Sultan's intentions, however,
this very atypical public blessing of a royal has convinced
many Omanis that Taimur enjoys a special place among royals.
In future years, we would expect to see him attending major
events with the Sultan if indeed he is intended for loftier
positions.
GRAPPO