CODEL MORAN MEETING WITH OMANI DEPUTY PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MUSCAT 001096 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017 TAGS: PREL KNNP KPAL ECON ENRG IR MU SUBJECT: CODEL MORAN MEETING WITH OMANI DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In an October 26 meeting with a visiting U.S. Congressional delegation, the Omani Deputy Prime Minister praised U.S.-Oman relations and welcomed U.S. engagement in the region. He characterized Iran as a country determined to win respect from the international community and discounted inflammatory remarks made by Iranian President Ahmadinejad as being purely for public consumption. The Deputy PM warned of the dangers of a military strike against Iran and expressed his belief that even if Iran were to develop a nuclear weapon, it would not use it. He asserted that the key to weakening Iran's influence in the region, as well as to changing Syrian behavior and reducing extremism, is resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Omani minister advised against a premature withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and lauded Pakistani President Musharraf for maintaining stability in his country. The Deputy PM also highlighted Oman's efforts to further open and develop its economy, and claimed that the current high price of oil -- which made Oman "unhappy" -- was more a result of growing consumption and "psychological factors," rather than production levels. End Summary. -------------- KIND WORDS FOR THE U.S. -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 26, the Ambassador and a U.S. Congressional delegation (CODEL) led by Representative James Moran (D-VA) met with Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Fahd bin Mahmood al Sa'id to discuss bilateral ties and regional issues. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Secretary General Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi was also in attendance. Other CODEL members were: Representative Thomas Davis (R-VA),Representative Steve Chabot (R-OH),Representative Keith Ellison (D-MN),and Representative Laura Richardson (D-CA). ¶3. (C) Affirming the importance and strength of U.S.-Oman ties, Sayyid Fahd stated that Oman "welcomed" U.S. engagement in the region. He expressed regret for the loss of American lives in Iraq and commented that despite critical public opinions shaped by the Arab media, the Omani government recognized that Washington's intentions behind its actions were "good." Oman's overall policy for the region, he noted, was to "ease tensions" so as to prevent conflicts. -------------- IRAN CRAVES "RESPECT" -------------- ¶4. (C) Turning to Iran, Sayyid Fahd said that Oman enjoyed good relations with Tehran and used these ties to encourage the Iranians to "work out" their differences with the West. He emphasized that the "mentality" of the Iranians was different from that of Arabs, and that they were "tough negotiators." "The more you push, the more obstinate they become," Sayyid Fahd stated. Underlying Iran's actions, he commented, was a desire to be accepted and respected by the international community as a regional power that needed to be consulted on important matters. Consistent with this view, Tehran believes it has a "right" to be involved in Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere. ¶5. (C) Asked why Iranian President Ahmadinejad makes such provocative comments, Sayyid Fahd replied that Ahmadinejad's remarks were mostly for public consumption in Iran. According to Sayyid Fahd, for example, the Iranian President's threatening statement about Israel belied that fact that Ahmadinejad "knows full well that Israel is here to stay." -------------- DIALOGUE, NOT WAR, WITH IRAN -------------- ¶6. (C) Looking to the future, Sayyid Fahd lamented that it was "too easy to start a war." Oman was very concerned, he stated, that any military strike against Iran would jeopardize regional security, as well as threaten the "safety and prestige" of the U.S. If attacked, Sayyid Fahd predicted that Iran would seek to destabilize the region, since it could not hit the U.S. directly, and possibly interrupt the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz. ¶7. (C) One CODEL member inquired how a nuclear capable Iran would affect the regional balance of power. Sayyid Fahd prefaced his response by stating that Oman did not know the MUSCAT 00001096 002 OF 003 true scope or intentions of Iran's nuclear program. He continued that he did not believe that Iran would ever use a nuclear bomb, and that the regime in Tehran fully understood that Israel would "annihilate" Iran if it tried to use nuclear weapons against the Israelis. Sayyid Fahd cited how India's and Pakistan's acquisition of nuclear weapons had not led to "major problems," and opined that the Iranians probably somewhat liked the attention generated by their nuclear program as it gave them a louder voice in international affairs. Oman and the rest of the GCC, he added, were very concerned about possible nuclear pollution from Iran's Bushehr reactor given its proximity to the Gulf, and had discussed this with the Iranian government. ¶8. (C) Although he firmly advised against military action against Iran, Sayyid Fahd made clear that, in his opinion, the international community should not simply lie back and let Tehran "do whatever it wants." Any punitive approach, however, must be combined with dialogue as this would "give the Iranians the attention (and respect) that they seek." Iran's influence and position in the region -- as well as the strength of Hizballah in Lebanon -- could also be diminished, Sayyid Fahd noted, by making serious progress in the Middle East peace process. -------------- PEACE PROCESS = KEY TO REGIONAL STABILITY -------------- ¶9. (C) Describing a "chain of potential instability" that arced from Iran through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon into Palestine, Sayyid Badr argued that this chain "must be dismantled." Doing so, he continued, required directly addressing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as this was the "basis" for many problems in the region. Sayyid Fahd hoped that the Annapolis conference would succeed in establishing a solid foundation for negotiations. He remarked that while the international community could play a useful role, "the Israelis and Palestinians know each other better than anyone else." ¶10. (C) To achieve peace, Sayyid Fahd stated, the Palestinian people would have to become "united," much like how the different Lebanese groups once lived together in harmony despite their differences before foreign meddling prompted sectarian violence. Abu Mazen would also require "strong support" to stand up to Hamas -- "we can't ask him to deliver more than he can." Regarding Syria, Sayyid Fahd claimed that the Syrians would act "totally differently," and move from Iran's orbit, if the Golan Heights issue were "put at center stage." He further asserted that Damascus had no designs on Lebanese territory, but exerted influence in Lebanon to promote its own interests. -------------- THOUGHTS ON IRAQ -------------- ¶11. (C) Switching the topic to Iraq, the Deputy Prime Minister criticized those who claimed that the current violence was aimed primarily at the U.S. He asserted that Iraq "exploded from within, on its own" after U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein. Sayyid Fahd also noted that "every country in the region" recognized that a hasty pull-out of American troops would likely result in chaos in Iraq. The U.S. must instead continue to help the Iraqis maintain security and to work for reconciliation between the various factions. Sayyid Fahd stated that most Iraqi Shi'a were "proud Arabs" who did not want to be controlled by "Persians," and claimed that Iran had exerted influence even during the rule of Saddam Hussein among the oppressed Shi'a population. Achieving progress on political reconciliation in Iraq would reduce Iranian power there, but Iran would likely still be "needed at the table" in discussing ways to promote stability and security in Iraq. -------------- PRAISE FOR MUSHARRAF -------------- ¶12. (C) Outside the Middle East region, Sayyid Fahd said that Oman was "very concerned" about events in Pakistan. He commended General Musharraf and the Pakistani armed forces for maintaining stability, and noted that Musharraf's "somewhat limited options" prevented him from doing everything some called on him to do. For example, Sayyid Fahd said that the north of Pakistan was a "very delicate" region where terrorists were mixed in with the local population. Military operations in this area, accordingly, had to be conducted "very carefully" in order to differentiate between terrorists and innocent civilians. He added that human rights and democracy issues voiced by MUSCAT 00001096 003 OF 003 Musharraf's opponents could be used to strengthen the hand of extremists and help to destabilize the country. -------------- ECONOMIC UPDATE -------------- ¶13. (C) On economic matters, Sayyid Fahd commented that agreements between Arab countries often "never get off the shelf" due to squabbling and differing economic views. This was one reason why Oman, eager to open its economy to trade and foreign investment, had decided to pursue bilateral agreements such as the U.S.-Oman Free Trade Agreement. He stated that Oman was trying to diversify its economy to lessen its dependence on oil, and that the government was wisely investing its revenues for continued development. Sayyid Fahd added that it was important for the Omani public to be well informed about economic issues and to be prepared to participate in the country's growing, modern economy. ¶14. (C) Responding to a question on the price of oil, Sayyid Fahd said that Oman was "unhappy" about current oil prices as they dampened growth of the world economy. "Oil shouldn't cost more than $60 a barrel," he remarked. According to the Deputy Prime Minister, present production levels were not the real reason behind escalating prices. Instead, rising consumption and "psychological pressures" fueled in part by worries over the situation in the Middle East were the main culprits. He added that the declining value of the dollar was also a factor, but that Oman did not intend to abandon its currency peg to the greenback. ¶15. (U) CODEL Moran did not have an opportunity to clear this message. GRAPPO