FILLING BIG SHOES: BAVARIA'S NEW INTERIOR MINISTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000636 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: FILLING BIG SHOES: BAVARIA'S NEW INTERIOR MINISTER SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. REFS: (A) MUNICH 578, (B) MUNICH 218 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The recent selection of Joachim Herrmann to be Bavaria's new Interior Minister, after 14 years of Bavarian Minister-President Guenther Beckstein holding that office, caught nearly everyone by surprise. Herrmann not only has no background in law enforcement, but appeared content to remain in his old position as Chairman of the CSU Caucus in the State Parliament (Landtag). Bavaria's Interior Ministry has long held disproportionate sway in state politics, and in federal security policy coordination. Early engagement of Herrmann with Washington briefings will help build a relationship that supports effective cooperation with U.S. authorities. If local history is any indicator, Herrmann's new role positions him well to potentially succeed Beckstein as Minister-President. -------------- AN OCTOBER SURPRISE -------------- ¶2. (U) The most eagerly-anticipated question when new Bavarian Minister-President Guenther Beckstein announced his cabinet October 16 was who would succeed the nationally-known and respected Beckstein as Interior Minister. The answer turned out to be the surprise of the day -- Bavarian Landtag CSU Caucus Chairman Joachim Herrmann (51). Not only had Herrmann for months indicated that he would prefer to remain in his Landtag position than accept a cabinet post, he also had no background in law enforcement -- making him a particularly surprising choice given Bavaria's "tough on crime" reputation. ¶3. (SBU) The position of Bavarian Interior Minister has served in recent years to groom future Minister-Presidents -- both Beckstein and Stoiber served as Interior Ministers before ascending to the Minister-Presidency. Particularly given the 12 year age difference between Beckstein (64) and Herrmann, he would be well positioned to potentially succeed Beckstein sometime between the 2008 and 2013 state elections. -------------- WHAT KIND OF INTERIOR MINISTER? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) While in office just a month, Herrmann has given some indications as to what we may expect from him as Interior Minister. As CSU Caucus Chairman, Herrmann occasionally was a source of friction for Beckstein -- arguing in favor of privacy rights and data protection over security when Beckstein pushed for new methods of electronic surveillance. Now, since being named Interior Minister, he appears to have moderated his view. One of his first initiatives was to call on the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to end its resistance to online searches. "Terrorists have to be prevented from planning their crimes on the Internet," he told the tabloid "Bild." ¶5. (U) Herrmann is a longtime contact of the Consulate and was an IV grantee in 1999. Because of his lack of background in security and law enforcement issues, post is encouraging Herrmann to visit Washington in the near future for briefings from the law enforcement and intelligence communities. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Due to Germany's federal system in which law enforcement authority largely resides at the state level, state interior ministers are relatively powerful -- given Bavaria's size and international borders, this power is magnified. Herrmann knows his performance as Interior Minister will be measured against that of "law and order" Beckstein. He can ill-afford to preside over an erosion of Bavarians' sense of security if he harbors any ambition to succeed Beckstein as Minister-President. We expect Herrmann will not institute any significant changes to the policies so successfully carried-out by Beckstein. In that regard, we expect him, like Beckstein, to cooperate closely with the U.S., and also be a solid partner for Federal Interior Minister Schaeuble. As for the future, while it is too early to accurately predict who might succeed Beckstein as Minister-President, Herrmann is well positioned - he is the right age in the right job, and at present, does not face any obvious competition. ¶7. (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. ¶8. (U) A biographic report on Joachim Herrmann as well as previous MUNICH 00000636 002 OF 002 reporting from Munich are available on our SIPRNET website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/ . NELSON